“智能化”——汽车百年变革的新起点.pdf

S0790519100001 S0790519100002 S0790120070082 S0790120070081 S0790120040007 2020 12 51 2 3 CONTENTS 41.1 Wind 5380 2195 708 725 682 627 553 503 525 470 361 423 301 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Wind1.2 E/E E/E Bosch Model3 ID.3 A8 CT5 iS61.2 OTA LIN/CAN OTA AUTOSAR1.2 AP Dojo + AI Dojo OTA Autopilot 2020 33 1.2 6.10% 7.20% 7.60% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 2019E 2020E 2021E Autopilot % Trefis FSD 6000 7000 8000 10000 2020 2.2 7.2% 2021 7.6% Electrek FSD 100 / FSD 30%-40% Autopilot FSD1.2 651 2 3 CONTENTS 42.1 2014 5055 3692 2919 13253 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 ONE2.1 33.8 52.6 NOP Smart HW NP2+L4 NIO Pilot+ 2022 L3 ORIN P7 L3 Xavier XPILOT+OTA2.2 + + 2019 5 BU 2020 10 BU ICT MDC 昇 OS2.2 + + Waymo L3 Orin 2024 Waymo L4 2022 2020 11 2020 11 2020 6 2020 6 Mobileye + L31 2 3 CONTENTS 43.1 NXP / T-box V2X3.2 AI - G P U / F P G A / A SC I. - CPU - MCU Hypervisor BSP OS AGL / Android BSP ROTS QNX / VxWORKS MCAL AUTSAR Classic Adaptive AUTSAR / /3.2 Mobileye Mobileye FSD Xavier Orin EQ5 Ascend 310 Journal 2 Journal 5 A500 A1000 - ASIL-D - ASIL-D ASIL-D - ASIL-B(D) ASIL-D ASIL-D 14nm 12nm 7nm 7nm 12nm 28nm 7nm 28nm 16nm 2*36TOPS 30TOPS 200TOPS 2*12TOPS 16TOPS 4TOPS 96TOPS 5-10TOPS 40-70TOPS 36W 30W 75W 2*5W 8W 2W 15W 2W 8W 2TOPS/W 1TOPS/W 2.7TOPS/W 2.4TOPS/W 2TOPS/W 2TOPS/W 6.4TOPS/W 4TOPS/W 6TOPS/W 2019 2018 2022 2020 2021 2019 2021 2020 2021 L23.2 DMS HUD HUD DMS DMS HUD1 2 3 CONTENTS 44612 A 300 500 buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C51788 1 10 18 C2 16 2030 1 45 1 B 5