宏观经济专题：疫情反弹的经济影响.pdf

1 / 18 2021 01 18 - -2021.1.17 -10Y -2021.1.16 - -2021.1.14 S0790520060002 S0790120070013 100 1 14 135 7 2020 12 70 1 6 2019 15% 2020 7-8 1 2020 7-8 6 9.5 11.7 GDP 1.1% 1 14 28 6.6% 5.95 / 2.9% 47.58 / 0.05% 6.48 90.79 0.80% 2.1% 4.0% 62 / 18 1 . 4 2 . 10 2.1 . 10 2.2 . 10 2.3 . 11 3 . 11 3.1 . 11 3.2 . 13 3.3 . 15 4 . 16 1 . 4 2 “ ” “ ” . 4 3 . 5 4 . 5 5 2020 12 . 5 6 . 5 7 . 6 8 . 6 9 . 6 10 3 18.5 . 7 11 . 7 12 2020 7-8 . 7 13 . 7 14 2020 7-8 . 8 15 . 8 16 2020 7-8 . 8 17 . 8 18 . 9 19 . 9 20 28 . 10 21 . 10 22 . 10 23 . 10 24 - -13 . 11 25 -39 . 11 26 30 . 12 27 30 . 12 28 30 . 12 29 30 . 123 / 18 30 100 . 13 31 100 . 13 32 100 . 13 33 . 13 34 . 14 35 . 14 36 . 14 37 . 14 38 . 15 39 . 15 40 . 15 41 . 15 42 . 16 43 (100 ) . 16 44 . 16 45 LME3 . 16 1 . 6 2 . 8 3 . 11 4 . 114 / 18 1 1 14 1 2020 7 1 1 14 135 7 9 2 1 2 Wind Wind 80 2020 4 15.3 3 10.3 50% 2020 12 1 2021 1 13 2 4 14 5 16 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 ( ) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 13 1 14 1 15 1 165 / 18 3 4 Wind Wind 12 5 2020 12 6 2 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 7 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 0 20 40 60 80 100 12 21 12 23 12 25 12 27 12 29 12 31 1 2 1 4 1 6 1 8 1 10 1 12 1 14 1 166 / 18 7 1 1 6 2019 15% 3 1 14 1 5 28% 24% 16% 8 9 G7 Wind 2020 7-8 3 2020 3 20.3% 2 18.5 2-3 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1-1 1-2 1-3 1-4 1-5 1-6 1-7 1-8 1-9 1-10 1-11 1-12 1-13 1-14 1-15 7 14 7 7 14+7 14 14+7+7 ( ) 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 12 19 12 21 12 23 12 25 12 27 12 29 12 31 1 2 1 4 1 6 1 8 1 10 1 12 1 14 1 16 2019 ( ) % 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 12-01 12-03 12-05 12-07 12-09 12-11 12-13 12-15 12-17 12-19 12-21 12-23 12-25 12-27 12-29 12-31 01-02 01-04 01-06 01-08 01-10 01-12 01-14 01-16 77 / 18 10 3 18.5 11 Wind CPI 2020 8 CPI 6 2 1 7 CPI 12 2020 7-8 13 Wind Wind 2020 7-8 8 6 9.5 11.7 -19.0 -3.8 1.0 -37.0 -1.8 -20.3 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020 % 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 13 1 14 1 15 1 16 (7 ) 2019 2020 2021 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 CPI 2020 8 CPI 6 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 38 40 42 44 46 48 12-03 12-10 12-17 12-24 12-31 01-07 01-14 / /8 / 18 14 2020 7-8 15 Wind Wind 16 2020 7-8 17 Wind Wind GDP 1.1% 1 14 2 3 / ( ) ( ) GDP GDP 666 1103.1 5809.9 16.6% 0.6% 48 739.5 2120.0 6.0% 0.2% 1 492.1 3196.0 9.1% 0.3% 14 831.6 6470.3 26.0% 0.7% 5 598.7 7001.7 28.1% 0.7% 3 2019 2.3 1.4 2.8 2.5 3.9 2 -1.1 -0.8 -1.4 -0.2 -7.8 -1.4 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 GDP 2020Q3 GDP Q2 -9.5 -21.0 -8.1 -11.7 -12.1 -8.9 -12.0 1.5 7.5 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 2020 8 6 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 2019-04 2019-05 2019-06 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 % 6 8 10 12 14 16 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 2020-08-14 2020-08-28 2020-09-11 2020-09-25 2020-10-09 2020-10-23 2020-11-06 2020-11-20 2020-12-04 2020-12-18 2021-01-01 2021-01-15 (110 ) (100 )9 / 18 33 122.8 1992.9 5.6% 0.2% 3 360.5 7116.4 20.1% 0.7% 1 42.2 399.9 1.1% 0.0% 132 521.7 1101.1 8.1% 0.1% 6 158.1 578.9 4.3% 0.1% 5 1076.3 5249.4 38.6% 0.5% 1 273.1 2568.3 18.9% 0.3% 2 1658.1 17012.7 36.5% 1.7% 7 214.7 725.8 6.2% 0.1% 3 773.9 5904.1 50.3% 0.6% 1 132.0 4506.6 21.20% 0.5% 1 527.8 1828.5 7.09% 0.2% 1 338.2 1447.6 8.5% 0.1% 930 9964.4 75030.0 7.6% Wind 18 19 Wind Wind 1 100 1 14 135 7 2 3 4 GDP 1.1% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 13 1 14 1 15 1 16 0 20 40 60 80 100 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 13 1 14 1 15 1 1610 / 18 2 2.1 1 11 -1 15 28 6.6% 5.95 / 2.9% 47.58 / 20 28 21 Wind Wind 2.2 1 11 -1 15 0.05% 6.48 90.79 0.80% 0.82% 0.26% - -13 -39 22 23 Wind Wind 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 / 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 / 6.45 6.50 6.55 6.60 6.65 6.70 6.75 6.80 6.85 6.90 6.95 7.00 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 08-07 08-14 08-21 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 10-16 10-23 10-30 11-06 11-13 11-20 11-27 12-04 12-11 12-18 12-25 01-01 01-08 01-15 ( ) 6.20 6.25 6.30 6.35 6.40 6.45 6.50 6.55 6.60 6.65 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 08-07 08-14 08-21 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 10-16 10-23 10-30 11-06 11-13 11-20 11-27 12-04 12-11 12-18 12-25 01-01 01-08 01-15 100 (11 / 18 24 - -13 25 -39 Wind Wind 2.3 1 11 -1 15 2.1% 4.0% 5.1% 3 -2.1% -1.8% -1.1% -2.4% -1.0% -4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 1.5% 4.4% 6.0% 0.2% Wind 4 PTA PVC -1.3% 3.2% -2.5% -6.1% -2.9% -6.8% -2.5% -4.7% 0.1% -2.8% 0.2% 0.6% 1.2% 5.1% 7.1% 4.5% 8.8% 4.5% 4.5% 0.4% 0.1% -4.1% 7.0% 2.3% 5.4% -1.8% 3.4% 1.6% Wind 3 3.1 1 3 -1 10 30 30 429 6.2% 82 35.8% 208 35.1% 139 -0.10 -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0 08-07 08-14 08-21 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 10-16 10-23 10-30 11-06 11-13 11-20 11-27 12-04 12-11 12-18 12-25 01-01 01-08 01-15 - ( ) -0.05 -0.04 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 6.45 6.55 6.65 6.75 6.85 6.95 7.05 07-31 08-07 08-14 08-21 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 10-16 10-23 10-30 11-06 11-13 11-20 11-27 12-04 12-11 12-18 12-25 01-01 01-08 01-15 ( ) USDCNH12 / 18 13.5% 26 30 27 30 Wind Wind 28 30 29 30 Wind Wind 1 3 -1 10 100 440 61.9% 2895 / 26.5% 14.26 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 (13 / 18 30 100 31 100 Wind Wind 32 100 33 Wind Wind 3.2 1 11 -1 15 Myspic 163.26 1.8% 152.94 0.4% 1,582.05 2.44% 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 2,400 2,800 3,200 3,600 4,000 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 (%) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 (%) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 (14 / 18 34 35 Wind Wind 36 37 Wind Wind 1 11 -1 15 1.1% 4.8% 3.6% 10.5% 0.7% 0.8% 23.3% 11320 / 11.9% 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 2019-01 2019-02 2019-03 2019-04 2019-05 2019-06 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 (%) 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 950 1050 1150 1250 1350 1450 1550 1650 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-0115 / 18 38 39 Wind Wind 40 41 Wind Wind 3.3 1 11 -1 15 100 1270 / 972.50 / 9.9% 100 77.57% 0.6 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 07-24 07-31 08-07 08-14 08-21 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 10-16 10-23 10-30 11-06 11-13 11-20 11-27 12-04 12-11 12-18 12-25 01-01 01-08 01-15 1# A00 ( ) ( / ) ( / ) 1.80 1.85 1.90 1.95 2.00 2.05 2.10 2.15 2.20 2.25 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 07-24 07-31 08-07 08-14 08-21 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 10-16 10-23 10-30 11-06 11-13 11-20 11-27 12-04 12-11 12-18 12-25 01-01 01-08 01-15 1# 1# ( ) ( / ) ( / ) 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 07-24 07-31 08-07 08-14 08-21 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 10-16 10-23 10-30 11-06 11-13 11-20 11-27 12-04 12-11 12-18 12-25 01-01 01-08 01-15 ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 07-24 07-31 08-07 08-14 08-21 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 10-16 10-23 10-30 11-06 11-13 11-20 11-27 12-04 12-11 12-18 12-25 01-01 01-08 01-15 ( ) ( ) (16 / 18 42 43 (100 ) Wind Wind 1 11 -1 15 LME3 1.6% WTI 0.2% 1.6% LME3 1.9% 1.7% 0.3% 4.0% 44 45 LME3 Wind Wind 4 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 2019-06 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 ( ) ( / ) ( / ) 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 2019-03 2019-04 2019-05 2019-06 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 （% ） 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 07-24 07-31 08-07 08-14 08-21 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 10-16 10-23 10-30 11-06 11-13 11-20 11-27 12-04 12-11 12-18 12-25 01-01 01-08 01-15 ( ): WTI ( / ) 1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 1,900 1,950 2,000 2,050 2,100 6,100 6,500 6,900 7,300 7,700 8,100 8,500 07-24 07-31 08-07 08-14 08-21 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 10-16 10-23 10-30 11-06 11-13 11-20 11-27 12-04 12-11 12-18 12-25 01-01 01-08 01-15 LME3 LME3 ( / ) ( /17 / 18 2017 7 1 R2 C2 C3 C4 C5 C2 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50018 / 18 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065