电子行业2021年度策略报告：把握电子元器件国产替代加速历史机遇.pdf

2021 S0790520070002 liuxiangkysec 2020 12 05 S0790520070007 fushengshengkysec S0790120080105 linchengyukysec S0790120080051 shengxiaojunkysec S0790120080019 caoxuchenkysec S0790120070043 luotongkysec1 2 3 目 录 CONTENTS PCB HDI PCB MLCC 4 5 6 Mini LED 1.1 A PCB A 14 9 2016-2018 93.6 2017-2018 A PCB PCB 2020 A PCB 78.4 2019 25% 1 A 2 A PCB 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Q3 YoY 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 A PCB Wind Prismark 14 )1.1 PCB PCB 2014 40.9 2019 65.7 60.7% PCB 2014 3.8 7.7 4.1 7.0 71.0% PCB 3 A PCB 4 A PCB 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (2) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Wind Wind 1.2 HDI HDI HDI HDI 2021 1 2 PCB HDI HDI Anylayer 12L(ELIC) N/A 12 Anylayer 14 6.25 mm 0.3 mm N/A 0.076 mm 0.2-0.7 mm / 0.05/0.0625 mm 0.05/0.05 mm 0.04/0.04 mm 0.05/0.05 mm 0.04/0.05 mm 0.15 mm 0.35 mm 0.075mm 0.1mm 0.1 mm 0.15m 0.15 mm 0.15 mm 0.075 mm N/A 620 mm*544 mm 1250 mm 570 mm HDI 2021Q1 HDI 2021Q4 HDI HDI 50% Anylayer 2021 mSAP 2023 HDI HDI HDI HDI 2021H2 HDI HDI HDI 1.2 HDI PCB PCB DC-DC BMS PCB 800-1000 2020-2022 10%/25%/20% 2021 PCB 10%/10%/10% 2%/5%/2% PCB 10%/10%/10% 2020-2022 PCB 505.5/591.8/673.9 13%/17%/14% 3 2022 PCB 673.9 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 132.0 210.0 222.0 244.2 305.3 366.3 YoY 46% 59% 6% 10% 25% 20% PCB 1276.3 1340.1 1474.1 1621.5 1783.7 1962.0 YoY 5% 5% 10% 10% 10% 10% PCB 16.8 28.1 32.7 39.6 54.5 71.9 YoY 54% 67% 16% 21% 38% 32% 9391.2 9304.9 9300.3 9480.1 9941.2 10123.7 YoY 3% -1% 0% 2% 5% 2% PCB 405.3 421.5 446.8 491.4 540.6 594.6 YoY 7% 4% 6% 10% 10% 10% PCB 380.6 392.2 415.5 465.9 537.4 602.0 YoY 10% 3% 6% 12% 15% 12% PCB 397.4 420.3 448.2 505.5 591.8 673.9 YoY 11% 6% 7% 13% 17% 14% PCB Information 1.3 PCB 2016 2017 2016 20.0%/20.0% 2016 2015 2.1/1.7/3.4/3.8 pct 5 2016 6 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1.3 PCB 1-2 2020Q4 2020 4 14000 / 18000 / PCB 7 2020 4 LME 8 2020 4 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2017-01-03 2018-01-03 2019-01-03 2020-01-03 LME / 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2017-01-02 2018-01-02 2019-01-02 2020-01-02 / Wind Wind 1.3 PCB 2020Q3 PCB 2020Q3 PCB A PCB YoY+6.9% MoM+5.8% PCB YoY-0.2% MoM+5.7% 9 2020Q3 PCB 10 2020 10 PCB -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 QoQ YoY -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 Mar-19 Aug-19 Jan-20 Jun-20 YoY Wind 1.4 PCB HDI PCB PCB PCB PCB HDI 2021 HDI 2021H2 any-layer PCB PCB HDI PCB 4 Wind Wind 1.5 1 PCB 2 5G PCB IDC PCB 3 PCB PCB 4 PCB 1 2 3 目 录 CONTENTS PCB HDI PCB MLCC 4 5 6 Mini LED 2.1 IHS Omdia 11 MOSFET IGBT 12 IHS Omdia 2019 IC+ + 403 2019 IC+ + 145 MOSFET, 41% IGBT, 30% , 20% , 5% BJT, 4% , 0% MOSFET IGBT BJT Infineon, 19.90% ON Semi, 8.90% STMicro, 5.40% Mitsubishi, 4.80% Vishay, 4.50% Toshiba, 4.50% Fuji, 3.60% Renesas, 3.30% Rohm, 2.60% Semikron, 2.50% Others, 40.00%2.1 5 6 IDM + 4 10m BJT 、 5 1m 6 /8 0.5m MOSFET 8 /12 0.5m 以下 IGBT 、 IC + 48 812 1 IDM Fabless Fabless+ IDM 2.1 Wind 13 2020Q2 14 2020Q1 2020 Q2 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2019 Q12019 Q22019 Q32019 Q42020 Q12020 Q22020 Q3 -200% -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 800% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 Wind 2.1 ATREG 15 12 8 MOSFET 8 MOSFET 8 8 12 8 8 5G , 14% Skyorks, 21% Murata, 26% Qorvo, 13% Qualcomm , 7% , 19% 63 70 79 89 101 115 130 149 170 202 236 272 313 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Yole Development 17 16 QYR Electronic Research Center 2.2 ( ) 2011-2018 CAGR 13.1% 2019 170 2018-2023 CAGR 16% CR5 81%9 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 17 17 18 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0 5 10 15 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201