2020年第2季度全球预测（英文版）.pdf

A report by The Economist Intelligence UnitCoronavirus sinks global growth prospects for first half of 2020Q2 global forecast 2020The world leader in global business intelligenceThe Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper. Created in 1946, we have over 70 years experience in helping businesses, financial firms and governments to understand how the world is changing and how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be managed. Given that many of the issues facing the world have an international (if not global) dimension, The EIU is ideally positioned to be commentator, interpreter and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace and impact.EIU subscription servicesThe worlds leading organisations rely on our subscription services for data, analysis and forecasts to keep them informed about what is happening around the world. 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Find out more at: eiu/healthcare Public Policy: Trusted by the sectors most influential stakeholders, our global public policy practice provides evidence-based research for policy-makers and stakeholders seeking clear and measurable outcomes. Find out more at: eiu/publicpolicyThe Economist Corporate NetworkThe Economist Corporate Network (ECN) is The Economist Groups advisory service for organisational leaders seeking to better understand the economic and business environments of global markets. Delivering independent, thought-provoking content, ECN provides clients with the knowledge, insight, and interaction that support better-informed strategies and decisions. The Network is part of The Economist Intelligence Unit and is led by experts with in-depth understanding of the geographies and markets they oversee. The Networks membership-based operations cover Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. Through a distinctive blend of interactive conferences, specially designed events, C-suite discussions, member briefings, and high-calibre research, The Economist Corporate Network delivers a range of macro (global, regional, national, and territorial) as well as industry-focused analysis on prevailing conditions and forecast trends.Q2 GLOBAL FORECAST 2020 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20201The Economist Intelligence Unit provides world-leading political and economic analysis and forecasts for 197 countries. Our reports examine and explain the important political and economic trends and developments in each country, providing investors and businesses with key takeaways to understand the current situation and the likely future political and economic developments.Alongside our comprehensive annual data, we provide quarterly forecasts for 50 countries covering 85% of global output. These forecasts, built using our proprietary econometric models, address the growing need for high-frequency data to help set budgets, investments and economic projections. The EIUs quarterly forecasts include up to 51 headline series for G20 countries, the BRICS grouping (comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), as well as key emerging markets. These forecasts are updated continuously and projected out two years, or eight quarters. Our quarterly-frequency forecasts make use of a pioneering Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) technique developed by leading econometricians over the past decade. Such models are believed to have strong forecasting properties, particularly in the short run, and to capture cross-quarter and cross-variable dynamics effectively.Prior to the coronavirus outbreak we expected global real GDP growth to be lacklustre this year, at 2.3% (at market exchange rates). The coronavirus pandemic is a game changer, and we now expect global output to contract by 2.5% this yearthe lowest rate since the global financial crisis. The negative effect on growth will come via both demand and supply channels. On the one hand, quarantine measures, illness, and negative consumer and business sentiment will suppress demand. At the same time, the closure of some factories and disruption to supply chains will create supply Real GDP growth rate (%), quarter on quarterBRICS 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2Brazil 0.5 -1.0 -11.0China 1.4 -10.9 9.2India 1.2 5.0 -9.3Russia 0.4 -0.1 -10.5South Africa -0.3 -3.0 -7.7G7Canada 0.1 -0.3 -4.5France 0.8 -2.0 -10.0Germany 0.0 -3.0 -10.0Italy -0.3 -5.0 -10.0Japan -1.8 -0.5 -0.4UK 0.0 -1.0 -10.0USA 0.5 -1.3 -5.9Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit.Coronavirus sinks global growth prospects for first half of 2020Q2 GLOBAL FORECAST 2020 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20202bottlenecks. The economic shock will be mostly concentrated in the first half of this year, with regional variations that follow the gradual spread of the pandemic across the globe. We expect a modest rebound in global output in the second half of 2020, provided that the spread of coronavirus is largely contained globally and no second or third waves of the pandemic occur. However, the impact on confidence and demand will be long lasting. A rise in uncertainty will lead to increased precautionary savings among households and delayed business investment. Some consumers may also continue to self-quarantine after governments lift lockdowns for fear of contracting the coronavirus, which will constrict the recovery in private consumption. In a worst-case scenario, sovereign debt crises could take place if efforts to contain the pandemic drain fiscal revenues and drastically increase public expenses across developed countries. This is compounded by the fact that many of the European countries that are among the worst affected by the pandemic, such as Italy and Spain, already had weak fiscal positions before the outbreak. A potential debt crisis in any of these countries would quickly spread to other developed countries and emerging markets, sending the global economy into anotherpossibly much deeperdownturn.China was the first country hit by the coronavirus outbreak. After an initially slow response, the Chinese authorities placed Hubei and other provinces on lockdown, significantly restricting economic activity in areas that are crucially important to national and international supply chains. Chinese citizens have cut down on spending, which means that firms working in service sectors such as catering and accommodation have struggled to remain afloat. Recent data also show that industrial output, as well as property and fixed-asset investments, plunged by record-high levels in January-February. This leads us to believe that Chinas output contracted by 10.9% quarter on quarter in January-March. There are signs that activity in China is now slowly starting to recover, with the Chinese leadership keen to normalise the situation and gradually lift quarantine measures. Against this backdrop, we expect growth to rebound to 9.2% quarter on quarter in April-June. However, this will mainly be due to base effects, and we believe that Chinas full-year growth will be a mere 1%. Across Europe, the containment measures adopted to slow the spread of coronavirus will lead all economies to contract in 2020. We believe that Italy, which currently reports the highest number of deaths worldwide, saw its output drop by 5% quarter on quarter in the first quarter of this year as lockdown measures severely disrupted economic activity. The picture looks even worse across the entire euro zone for the second quarter, with all countries expected to post a contraction of their output on a quarterly basis. The situation appears especially grim in Germany. The countrys huge manufacturing sector (which represents a fifth of the economy) is highly export oriented, which means that the country is particularly exposed to both supply chain disruption and sinking global demand. We expect that Germanys output will contract by 10% in the second quarter on a quarterly basis, and by 6% overall this year. The countrys recovery will be slower than that of other euro zone countries, such as France, where typically more resilient domestic consumption represents a larger driver of growth. Coronavirus is rapidly spreading in the US, which now reports the highest number of cases worldwide. The impact of the pandemic on US growth will be mainly felt during the second quarter of this year, when we expect output to contract by 5.9% quarter on quarter. The US administrations initial response to the coronavirus outbreak was particularly poor and haphazard, allowing the Q2 GLOBAL FORECAST 2020 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20203virus to spread quickly. Factoring in the abrupt implementation of measures needed to contain the virus, the steep jump in jobless claims in late March and sluggish progress in accelerating testing for coronavirus, we now expect real GDP to contract by 2.9% in 2020. This is still an optimistic baseline scenario, which would be derailed if containment measures are not lifted by the second half of this year. It also assumes that recent federal stimulus measuresamounting to US$2trn, more than double the size of the stimulus bill approved in response to the global financial crisisare implemented quickly, giving workers in the services sector access to vital financial support. The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20204In todays media-saturated world, it can be hard to identify the events that will materially impact the outlook of a country, and those that end up passing by without any significant effect. Our flagship product, Country Report, reviews and analyses only the most important developments for 189 countries, examining and explaining key trends in each country.Each report provides you with impartial insight which puts these events into context and explains their significance. 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The reports provide access to a comprehensive set of political, economic, and business environment forecasts that are continuously updated and written from the point of view of foreign investors. A key feature of Country Forecast is a set of business environment rankings that assess the attractiveness of the investment climate across 82 countries, allowing subscribers to make comparisons across countries and over time. Alongside the rankings, our country experts present in-depth analysis on various facets of the business environment, providing insights into key risks and opportunities.The business environment rankings section of Country Forecast has recently been updated to include an assessment of how well prepared countries are for technological change. This includes eight different indicators across three categories: access to the internet, the digital economy infrastructure and openness to innovation. 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