中国电动自行车的发展与展望.pdf

The Development and Future Prospects of Electric Bicycles in China Draft 2017.4.22 Guangzhou Modern BRT 电动自行车的主要优势为：便捷、环保、经济、 社会性和高效，它是现有的交通系统的一种全新的 出行方式； Main advantages of E-bikes are: convenience, environmental protection, economical, sociality and high efficiency, which is a brand new travel mode in current transportation system; 运输策略：必须同时考虑法律法规、 街道设计、 注册、管理环节等才能创造一个持续有效的电动自 行车交通系统；、 Transportation strategy: to create a sustainable and effective E-bike transportation system, laws, regulations, street design, registration and management for E-bikes must be all considered; 发展展望：电动自行车已经成为一种趋势。未 来在世界范围内，尤其是亚洲及环太平洋地区存在 巨大的发展机会及空间，中国可成为引领电动自行 车发展的领袖。 Development prospect: E-bike has become a trend. E-bike has huge development chance and space throughout the world in the future, especially in the Asian-Pacific Region and China may lead the development of E-bike. II. 现状：电动自行车已成为最重要的 交通方式Present situation: E-bike has become the most important transport mode 2.1 电动自行车在中国的崛起是一个有机的、 不可避免的现象Rise of E-bike in China is an organic and inevitable phenomenon 电动自行车，是指以蓄电池作为辅助能源，具有 两个车轮，能实现人力骑行、电动或电助动功能的特 种自行车。 E-bike refers to a kind of special two-wheel bicycle with accumulator as auxiliary energy supply, which is driven in manual, electric and electricity-aided way. 我国有记录的并形成产业化的第一款电动自行车 The first batch of E-bike in China with record and forming industrialization. 上海自行车二厂试制成功永久牌 DX-130 电动自行车。由于当 时电动自行车的性能不佳，未能在全国普及。 Forever Brand DX-130 E-bike is trial-produced successfully in Shanghai Bicycle No. 2 Factory.As the performance of E-bike then is not very good, which cant be popularized in the country. 走上快速发展的道路 Production scale is formed initially. 上海的千鹤、苏州的小羚羊、南京的大陆鸽，在电动自行车的研 发上陆续取得突破。在各项性能指标上结束了多年徘徊的局面， 首次获得了市场的认可。 Shanghai Crane, Suzhou Small Antelope and Nanjing Mainland Pigeons get a breakthrough in the R it has broken national standards and become the replaced products to motorcycles and bicycles, at the same time, its fast, environmental, convenient and cheap features stimulate the demand of market to E-bikes. 大规模企业已经形成 Large-scale enterprise is formed. 以新日、绿源、千鹤、大陆鸽等品牌为代表的上规模企业已经形 成。而且按照南北差异，亦形成了行业内的江苏无锡。浙江、天 津为代表的三大产业集聚地。 Large-scale enterprises with Xinri, Lvyuan, Crane, Mainland Pigeon and other brands as representatives have been formed, and the three industry-intensive cities with Jiangsu Wuxi, Zhejiang, Tianjin as representatives have also been formed according to the difference between South and Norths. 中国电动自行车超速发展的井喷阶段 Booming stage of rapid development for E-bike in China. 在此期间，中国电动自行车行业开始进入爆发式增长阶段，截止 到 2007 年，我国电动自行车产量突破 2000 万。 During this period, E-bike in China developed and entered into explosive growth stage; by the end of 2007, the production of E-bike in China has exceeded 20 million. 中国电动自行车行业发展转点 The development turning point for E-bike industry in China. 电动自行车保有量超过 2 亿。市场逐渐趋于饱和，电动自行车产 量逐渐趋于稳定，电动自行车呈两极分化趋势。 The total holding volume of E-bike has exceeded 200 million. The market gets saturated, E-bike has a stable production and sales, and it shows a trend of polarization. 1983 1999 2000 2004 2007 2014 随着电动车技术的快速进步和新技术普及，电 4.1 完善行业标准， 正确引导行业发展 -12 Perfect industrial standard and guide industrial development 4.2 转变政府态度， 加强宣传教育工作 -14 Change attitude of government and strengthen publicity and education 4.3 规范注册、 管理及执行制度-16 Regulate registration, management and implementation institution 4.4 完善道路设计与基础设施建设 -17Complete road design and infrastructure construction V. 电动自行车发展展望 -18E-bike Development Prospect 5.1 2030 年前， 中国电动自行车依然高速发展 -18 Prior to 2030, the E-bike industry in China is still developing rapidly. 5.2 2050 年， 世界尤其是亚太地区电动自行车将面临着快速发展的机遇 -19 In 2050, globally and especially the Asia Pacific will face the opportunity for rapid development of E-bikes 5.3 交通模式整合 ： 技术更新， 基础设施更完善， 更环保 -20Traffic model integration: technological advancement, better infrastructure, more environmentally friendly VI. 结束语 -20Concluding Remarks VII. 参考文献 -22References5 4 动自行车的性能也得到极大的提升。与此同时，中国 城市也进入了快速城市化的阶段，城市中产及工薪阶 层需要新的交通方式通勤，而电动车正好满足了中国 百万城镇居民的这一需求，因此迅速风靡全国各地。 2014 年我国电动自行车保有量已经超过 2 亿，成为 中国无数家庭的最主要的交通方式。 With the fast advance of electric vehicle technology and popularization of new technology for E-bike, the performance of E-bike has prompted a lot. At the same time, Chinese cities are also entered into the stage of fast urbanization, therefore, middle class and salaried class in city need new transport modes for commuting, and E-bike just meets the demand for millions of citizens in China, so it becomes popular throughout the country rapidly. In 2014, the holding volume for E-bike in China has exceeded 200 million, and the E-bike becomes the most important transport mode for numerous families in China. 在交通能源与环境问题尤为严峻的 21 世纪，新 能源汽车市场迅猛发展，但是其发展是密集的扶植政 策、高额的购买补贴（通常的补贴标准可以抵消每辆 车 20%-30% 的成本）、下滑的电池成本、节能监 管等多种原因共同推动的结果。尽管如此，相比于完 全没有任何补贴的而自然发展起来的电动自行车，其 发展态势仍然显得不值一提。同时新能源汽车过高的 补贴引起了“骗补”等不和谐因素，2016 年开始， 中央财政补贴逐渐出现收紧趋势，补贴逐步压缩。新 能源汽车企业唯有通过提高产销量，降低单车成本来 弥补取消补贴带来的成本压力，然而这并非易事。 In the 21st century, as the transportation energy and environmental problems are serious, New Energy Vehicles market develops fast, but its development is the results jointly driven by dense policy support, high purchase subsidies (generally, the subsidization criteria can offset 20% 30% cost of each vehicle), decreased battery costs, energy efficiency supervision and many other reasons. However, compared with E-bike which developed without any subsidies, the development trend of new energy automobile is unworthy of being mentioned. Meanwhile, the ultra high subsidies for New Energy Vehicles is trivial, in comparison to E-bike which developed automatically without any subsidies. Meanwhile, the excessive subsidies for new energy vehicles has given rise to “cheat fill” and other disharmonious factors, so from 2016, the central government allowance has been tightened up gradually, and the subsidies are compressed progressively. It is not easy for New Energy Vehicles enterprises to reduce the cost pressure after cancelling subsidies, even though increasing production and consumption and decreasing single vehicle cost. 2.2 电动自行车的发展是交通工具对城市扩 张的适应 Development of E-bike is transportation adaption to urban expansion 电动自行车在短短十来年内，保有量急速增长， 已有的出行结构数据表明它已经成为城市中最为重要 的交通方式，同时也是中国最具潜力的替代燃料汽车 的交通方式。 The holding volume of E-bike grows rapidly in tens years, and existing data of travel mode indicates that E-bike has become the most important transport mode in city, and its also the most promising transport mode to replace fuel automobile in China. 电动自行车在中国快速发展的根本原因是城市快 速扩张、居民的平均出行距离增长。根据对中国城乡 建设部以及2013 中国城市建设统计年鉴的数据 统计，分散于 654 个城市（包括县级市）之中的中国 所有市区的面积，从 2007 年的 36352 平方公里扩张 到 2012 年的 46744 平方公里，五年之中，城市每 年扩张的平均速度达到 4.5%。并且这种扩张的趋势 和速度仍在继续。 Rapid urban expansion and increasing average trip distance of citizens are the foundation cause of fast development of E-bike in China. According to the statistics from Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the Peoples Republic of China and China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook of 2013, the scattered urban area of 654 cities, including county-level cities, has increased to 46,744 square kilometers in 2012 from 36,352 square kilometers in 2007. In these five years, the average speed of urban area expansion has reached 4.5% every year, and the expansion trend and speed are still continued. 以上海市为例 6 ：2009 年的平均出行距离为 6.5km，到 2014 年已经增长至 6.9km。尽管在居民 的平均出行距离不断增长的过程中，公交系统也在不 断的完善，但是完善速度跟不上出行者需求的增长速 度，与此同时，快速、续航更持久的电动自行车却很 好的满足了城市居民的出行需求。另一方面，电动自 行车购置成本低，比小汽车更容易被中低收入群体所 接受，而易学易骑的特点则更受中老年的青睐，上述 原因直接推动了电动自行车的蓬勃发展。 Taking Shanghai as an example: the average trip distance in 2009 is 6.5km, which has increased to 6.9km in 2014. During the process of constant increasing of average trip distance for citizens, although the public traffic system is completing, the completing speed cant keep pace with the growing speed of demands for travelers; meanwhile, fast and more durable endurance E-bike can meet the travel demand of citizens. On the other side, the E-bike is cheap, which is widely and easily accepted by middle and low income groups, and the E-bike is easy to learn and ride, which is popular with middle and old aged people, so above reasons drive the booming development of E-bike. 上海市电动自行车的使用在 2004 年后迅速普 及，目前电动自行车出行比例为 20.4%，已超过任何 一种机动化出行方式。 The use of E-bike in Shanghai is popularized fast from 2004, and the rate of riding E-bike for traveling so far has been 20.4%, which has exceeded any kind of motorized travel mode.3 电动自行车 E-bike 小汽车 Car 新能源汽车 New energy automobile 电动自行车 Growth of E-bike 1,2 、小汽车 Car 3 、新能源汽车 New energy automobile 4,5 、 历年增长情况 over the years 上海市居民平均出行距离变化 Change of average trip distance for Shanghai citizen 上海慢行交通出行方式比例变化 Change of percentage for slow traffic traveling way in Shanghai 2015 南昌交通方式分担率 Share rate of transportation mode of Nanchang in 2015 2015 昆明交通方式分担率 Share rate of transportation mode of Kunming in 2015 上图为近几年的电动自行车平均售价， 一辆电 动自行车的价格 , 不及获取一个小汽车的准驾资格费 用 7 。同时，电动自行车除了具有较低的前期成本， 电力的生成价格仅为汽油的一小部分，维护成本也更 低。 Above picture shows the average selling price for E-bike in recent years, and the price for an E-bike is less than cost for getting driving qualification of cars. At the same time, in addition to lower earlier stage cost, the price for power of E-bike is only a small part of petrol price, and the maintenance cost for E-bike is low. 自行车 Bicycle 电动自行车 E-bike 公交 Public 轻便摩托车（汽油） Light 轻便摩托（LPG） Light 小汽车 Car 总费用（￥/ 年） Total costs（￥/year） ￥109 ￥816 ￥1088 ￥2448 ￥2584 ￥8500 燃料单价（￥/ 单位）Fuel unit price（￥/unit） 0.021kWh 0.08kWh 0.25 / 票 ticket 0.56/L 0.41/L 0.56/L 燃料消耗 ( 燃料 单位 /km)Fuel consuming (fuel unit/km) 0.021kWh 0.015kWh 0.04L 0.036L 0.1L 车辆购置（￥）Vehicle purchase（￥） 428 2108 3808 5100 32300 保养费用 ( ￥)Maintenance costs ( ￥) 13.6 27.2 6.8*n/a 6.8*70 6.8*70 1632 电池消耗 ( ￥)Battery consumption ( ￥) 0 224.4 6.8*1.3 9 6.8*1.3 40.8 牌照价格 ( ￥)License price ( ￥) 0 27.2 1224 1224 2584 平均使用 ( 千米 / 天 )Average use(km/day） 8.2 9.4 9.4 14 14 32 车辆寿命 Service life of vehicles 5 5 5 5 5 10 自行车 （助）电动车 步行 Bicycle Motorcycle (electric) bicycle Walk 其它城市的出行方式构成也都显示出，电动自行 车在中国得到了普遍的运用，已成为中国城市最重要 的交通出行方式之一。 The travel mode structure for other cities indicates that E-bike is used generally in China, and is one of the most important transport modes in China. Other其他 0.8 Walking 步行 46.8 Bicycle自行车 6 Cars小汽车 12.6 16 12.6 15.1 Public transportation 公共 15.1 E-bike电动 自行车 16 Taxi出租车 1.5 Commuter car 通勤车16 Motorcycle摩托车 1.2 Other其他 0.2 Walking 步行 27.5 Motorcycle 摩托车 0.3 Taxi出租车 2.1 Commuter car 通勤车0.5 E-bike电动自行车 22.1 Public transportation 公共 25.2 Cars小汽车 22.1 Bicycle自行车 0 22.1 22.1 25.27 6 昆明的一项调查 8 显示，从 2006 到 2012 年的 6 年间，居民使用电动自行车的出行距离由 7.5km 增 至 11.5km, 出行时间由 44 分钟增至 50 分钟，速度 从 10km/h 上升到 14km/h。 A survey of Kunming shows that during the 6 years from 2006 to 2012, the travel distance by using E-bike is increased to 11.5km from 7.5km, and travel time is increased to 50 minutes from 44 minutes, and speed is increased to 14km/h from 10km/h. 2.3 现有合理管理的成功先例Existing successful precedents of reasonable management 广西南宁市，通过“以学代管”的管理模式规范 电动自行车的使用，已形成吸引诸多城市前往学习的 南宁样板。南宁的案例足以证明电动自行车是一个能 解决中国以及其他发展中国家交通问题的重要工具， 合理管理和支持电动自行车的使用是一条成功之路。 In Guangxi Nanning, the management mode of “learning replace managing” to regulate the use of E-bike has attracted many cities to learn from the city. The case of Nanning sufficiently proves that E-bike is an important tool to solve the traffic problems of China and other developing countries, and reasonable management 需要与一定的体力消耗 Relatively low mobility; 小汽车 Car 适宜中长距离出行 Suitable for medium to long distance trips 费用高、空间效率低、不环保 High cost, Low space efficiency, not environmental -friendly 电动自行车 E-bike 费用低、适宜中等距离出行； Low cost, suitable for medium distance trips; 速度适中，空间效率高； Medium speed; high space efficiency; 有助力 Save physical power 系统成本降低拥堵成本：全球范围内交通拥堵 成本占到了 GDP 的 1% 以上。该问题可以通过供方 杠杆或需求管理杠杆来解决。自动驾驶汽车和出行模 式转变，如果管理得当，也可以在不增加基础设施投 资的基础上提高道路吞吐量。 System costs-reduce traffic jam costs: the traffic jam costs in the whole world take 1% and more of GDP. This problem can be solved through supplier leverage or demand management leverage. The change of autonomous car and travel mode can improve road throughput capacity on the basis of no adding infrastructure investment if managed well. 方便市民平等出行机会：电动自行车将为老年 人、不宜驾驶汽车的成年人和年轻人提供出行机会。 以增加低收入人群的出行模式的方式，为低收入者提 供了同样的出行机会。 Convenient to citizens-equal travel chance: E-bike can be easily ridden by old aged people, adults who are not suitable for driving cars and young people. Provide same traveling chance for low-income earners in order to enrich traveling modes for low income groups. 市民成本节省时间：电动自行车每天可以节省 出几个小时消耗在交通拥堵上的时间，这些时间可以 被运用到工作中去，完成更多的价值产出，同时顺畅 的出行给出行者带来心理上的愉悦，将使他们更轻松