2019年三季度跨境人民币指数.pdf

2019年三季度CRI指数CRI for the 3rd Quarter of 2019分析Analysis整体情况 Overall Profile经常和直投项下跨境人民币结算规模环比继续增长。2019年三季度共发生经常及直投项下跨境人民币结算量约23640亿元，较2019年二季度增长约The cross-border RMB settlement undercurrent account and direct investmentcontinued to increase on a QoQ basis. Thecross-border RMB settlement under current概要Main Points中国银行发布2019年三季度跨境人民币指数（CRI）。结果显示，三季度CRI指数为306，较二季度上升4点，超出预测值6点。Bank of China (“BOC” or “the Bank”) hasreleased the Cross-border RMB Index(“CRI”) for the 3rd quarter of 2019. The resultshowed that the CRI for the 3rd quarter was306, which was 4 points higher than the 2ndquarter and 6 points higher than the forecastvalue.跨境货物贸易项下人民币结算使用规模继续上升；人民币在资本项下的跨境使用保持增长；金融机构的广泛参与助推人民币跨境使用活跃度提升。 The scale of RMB settlement undercross-border goods trade continued to rise. The cross-border use of RMB under thecapital accounts continued to increase. The extensive participation by financialinstitutions resulted in RMB being used moreactively in cross-border activities.跨境人民币指数（BOC CRI Quarterly）9%。account and direct investment in the 3rd quarter of2019 totaled about RMB2,364 billion, whichincrease by 9% from the previous quarter.人民币跨境收支呈流入。2019年三季度人民币净流入约614亿元，人民币跨境收付在上季度净流出后重新回到净流入状态。The cross-border RMB receipts and paymentssaw a net inbound flow. In the 3rd quarter of2019, the net inbound flow of RMB was aboutRMB61.4 billion. The net of cross-border RMBreceipts and payments resumed inbound flow aftera net outbound flow in the last quarter.人民币在全球支付结算使用份额回落。2019年三季度，全球支付清算量增长近一成，同期全球人民币支付清算量增长6.28%，人民币在全球支付结算中的使用份额为1.88%，较2019年二季度回落0.06个百分点，人民币继续保持第五大全球支付货币地位。The proportion of RMB use in global paymentand settlement declined. In the 3rd quarter of2019, the global payment and clearing amountgrew by nearly 10%, while the global RMBpayment and clearing amount grew by 6.28%during the same period. The proportion of RMBuse in global payment and settlement was 1.88%,down 0.06 percentage points from the 2nd quarter .RMB remained as the fifth largest global paymentcurrency.人民币跨境使用分项情况 Details on Cross-border Use of RMB经常项目 CurrentAccount经常项目下跨境人民币结算量环比增长。2019年三季度全国办理经常项下跨境人民币结算金额16,174亿元，环比增长7%，其中：The amount of cross-border RMB settlementunder current account increased from theprevious quarter. In the 3rd quarter of 2019, theamount of cross-border RMB settlement undercurrent account reached RMB1,617.4 billion,increased by 7% on a QoQ basis, in which:人民币在跨境货物贸易结算中的使用规模上升。2019年三季度跨境货物贸易人民币结算量约10850亿元，较二季度增长2%，以人民币结算的货物贸易收支占全部货物贸易收支的比重约为13.9%，较上季度有所回落。The scale of RMB settlement undercross-border goods trade increased. In the 3rdquarter of 2019, the amount of RMB settlementunder cross-border goods trade was aboutRMB1,085 billion, an increase by 2% over the 2ndquarter. The RMB receipts and payments undergoods trade accounted for 13.9% of the totalreceipts and payments related to goods trade,which declined from the previous quarter.人民币在跨境服务贸易结算中的使用规模上升。2019年三季度跨境服务贸易人民币结算金额约2,493亿元，环比增长约11%。The scale of RMB settlement undercross-border service trade increased. In the 3rdquarter of 2019, the RMB settlement amountunder cross-border service trade totaled aboutRMB249.3 billion, increased by about 11% on aQoQ basis.资本项目 CapitalAccount人民币在跨境直接投资中的使用规模上升。2019年三季度全国办理直接投资人民币结算约7,470亿元，环比增长超过一成。其中：The use of RMB in cross-border directinvestment increased. In the 3rd quarter of 2019,the amount of RMB settlement under directinvestment reached RMB747 billion, an increaseby over 10% from the previous quarter. In which:跨境直接投资人民币流入结算金额4,183亿元，环比增长14.6%；The cross-border inbound direct investments thatwere settled in RMB totaled RMB418.3 billion,an increase by 14.6% from the previous quarter;跨境直接投资人民币流出结算金额3,287亿元，环比增长约8.4%。The cross-border outbound direct investment thatwere settled in RMB reached RMB328.7 billion,an increase by about 8.4% from the previousquarter.跨境人民币跨境证券投资结算规模保持增长。2019年三季度，跨境人民币证券投资结算金额超过3.4万亿元，环比增长约四成。The scale of RMB settlement undercross-border securities investment continued togrow. In the 3rd quarter of 2019, the RMBsettlement amount under cross-border securitiesinvestment exceeded RMB3.4 trillion, an increaseby about 40% from the previous quarter.离岸市场 Offshore Markets主要离岸市场人民币存款余额有所回升。2019年8月末香港银行机构人民币存款6,441亿元，较二季度末增加399亿元。The balance of RMB deposits in major offshoremarkets increased. At the end of August 2019, theRMB deposits of Hong Kong-based bankinginstitutions amounted to RMB644.1 billion, anincrease of RMB39.9 billion from the end of the2nd quarter.点评Comments2019年三季度跨境人民币指数继续上行，主要得益于以下因素：In the 3rd quarter of 2019, the CRI continued torise, which was attributable to the followingfactors:外贸进出口保持增长，拉动人民币跨境使用规模上升。今年三季度中国外贸进出口总值8.24万亿元人民币，环比增长7.6%。其中，出口4.50万亿元，环比增长8.2%；进口3.7万亿元，环比增长6.8%。Imports and exports continued to increase,promoting the expansion of the cross-borderuse of RMB. In the 3rd quarter, imports andexports of China reached RMB8.24 trillion, up7.6% on a QoQ basis. Specifically, exports grewby 8.2% quarter on quarter to RMB4.50 trillion,and imports rose by 6.8% quarter on quarter toRMB3.7 trillion.以人民币计价的外贸进出口继续保持向好态势，带动跨境货物贸易人民币结算规模上升。Imports and exports measured in RMBmaintained positive momentum, prompting a risein scale of RMB settlement under cross-bordergoods trade.人民币跨境直接投资保持活跃。直接投资跨境人民币结算规模连续三个季度保持增长，前九个月实际利用外资金额同比增长6.5%，其中三季度跨境直接投资流入结算环比增长14.6%。中国继续扩大对外开放，放宽外资准入，吸引外资持续流入，人民币作为直接投资载体货币的职能进一步增强。The use of RMB in cross-border directinvestment remained active. The scale of RMBsettlement under cross-border direct investmentwitnessed an increase for three consecutivequarters. The realized foreign investment in thefirst nine months was up 6.5%. Particularly, theinflow of cross-border RMB direct investment inthe 3rd quarter grew by 14.6% on a QoQ basis.China continued to expand the opening-up andlower the entry barrier for foreign investors toattract continuous inflow of foreign capital,thereby further enhancing the function of RMBas a viechle currency for direct investment.人民币在跨境证券投资项下的使用规模继续增长。三季度跨境证券投资人民币结算规模环比增长超过四成，美联储重启降息导致美国国债收益率水平有所走低，人民币债券资产在收益水平上的吸引力进一步显现，境外继续增持境内人民币资产，推升人民币在跨境证券投资项下的使用水平。The use of RMB under cross-border securitiesinvestment continued to grow. In the 3rdquarter, the scale of RMB settlement undercross-border securities investment grew by morethan 40% on a QoQ basis. As the resumption ofinterest rate cut by the Fed led to a decline in theyields of US Treasuries, RMB bond assetsbecame more attractive in terms of yields.Overseas investors continued to increase theirholdings of RMB assets in China, pushing up theuse of RMB under cross-border securitiesinvestment.金融机构的广泛参与助推人民币跨境使用度提高。环球银行金融电信协会(SWIFT)2019伦敦年会发布的“人民币追踪特刊”显示，从2017年7月到2019年7月，全球使用人民币支付的金融机构数量增加11.31%，数量从1989家增长到2214家。其中，非洲和中东地区使用人民币支付的金融机构数量增幅最大，从2017年7月的143家增至2019年7月的173家，增幅高达20.98%。金融机构的广泛参与提升了人民币跨境使用的便利性，助推人民币跨境使用活跃度的提高。The extensive participation by financialinstitutions boosted cross border use of RMB.According to RMB Tracker Special Editionissued by SWIFT during Sibos 2019 in London,the number of global financial institutions usingRMB as payments currency increased by 11.31%in July 2019 compared with July 2017, takingthe total from 1,989 to 2,214. The biggestincrease, which was 20.98%, was from Africaand the Middle East, where the number rosefrom just 143 in July 2017 to 173 in July thisyear. The broader participation of financialinstitutions made the cross-border use of RMBmore convenient, which gave rise to more activeuse of RMB in cross-border transactions.预测Forecasts预计2019年第四季度跨境人民币指数仍有上行潜力中美贸易摩擦初现缓和迹象，美联储完成年内第三次降息，这些举措有利于四季度人民币兑美元汇率的逐步回稳。同时中国外贸进出口继续保持逐季攀升的态势。这些积极因素有利于人民币跨境使用水平继续保持活跃，预计第四季度跨境人民币指数仍维持高位，预测值为300。The CRI is expected to continue an upwardmovement in the 4th quarter of 2019.Sino-US trade frictions have shown signs ofeasing. The Fed has completed its third rate cut inthe year. As a result, the exchange rate of RMBagainst USD tends to stablize in the 4th quarter.Besides, Chinas imports and exports mightmaintain the QoQ growth. These favorable factorswill support the use of RMB in cross-bordertransaction at an active level. It is expected thatthe CRI will remain at a high level in the 4thquarter, with a forecast value of 300.相关如需了解更多，敬请联络：Please contact us：中国银行交易银行部跨境本外币团队电话：+86 10 6659 2278电邮：winiambankofchina或访问我们的网址：bankofchina/fimarkets/cri/ Cross-border RMB and Foreign Currency Team,Global Transaction Banking Department, Bank ofChina:Tel.:+86 10 6659 2278Email:winiambankofchinaWebsite:bankofchina/fimarkets/cri/关于中国银行：About Us：中国银行是中国国际化和多元化程度最高的银行，海外机构覆盖51个国家和地区。中国银行是人民币国际化业务最活跃的商业银行之一，已形成了较为完善的人民币产品线，跨境人民币结算市场份额领先，中银香港、澳门分行、台北分行和法兰克福分行、巴黎分行、悉尼分行、马来西亚中行、匈牙利中行、约翰内斯堡分行、赞比亚中行、纽约分行、东京分行分别担任人民银行指定人民币清算行，中银香港人民币清算系统是全球服务时间最长的人民币清算系统。BOC is the most internationalized and diversifiedbank in China, with its overseas institutionsdistributed in more than 51 countries and regionsaround the world. Among the most activeinternational RMB bank service providers, it hasformed the fairly mature RMB product lines, andtakes the largest market share in Chinascross-border RMB settlement businesses. BOCHong Kong, Macau Branch, Taipei Branch，Frankfurt Branch, Paris Branch, Sydney Branch，BOC Malaysia, BOC Hungary, JohannesburgBranch, BOC Zambia, New York Branch andTokyo Branch have respectively acted as theRMB clearing bank designated by the PeoplesBank of China. Moreover, the RMB clearingsystem of BOC Hong Kong is the system with thelongest service time.本报告有关“中国银行跨境人民币指数（CRI）”的知识产权属中国银行股份有限公司所有。未经中国银行股份有限公司同意，不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用发布，需注明出处为中国银行股份有限公司，且不得对报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。对于本报告所提供信息所导致的任何直接或间接的投资盈亏后果，中国银行有限公司不承担任何责任。The intellectual property rights in connection with “BOC Cross-border RMB Index (CRI)” in this reportare owned by Bank of China Limited. Without the consent from Bank of China Limited, the report shallnot be replicated, copied or distributed in any form. In case of any citation for distribution, it shall beindicated that the source is Bank of China Limited, and the report shall not be cited, abridged andmodified contrary to the original intention. The contents and views contained in this report are forreference only, which do not constitute any investment recommendation. Bank of China will not beliable for any direct or indirect profit/loss on investment caused by the use of any information providedherein.