MENA Investing in children and youth today to secure a prosperous region tomorrowGENERATION 2030Cover photo: A Syrian refugee girl in an informal tented settlement in Jordan.© UNICEF/UN0229230/HerwigAll reasonable precautions have been taken by UNICEF to verify the information contained in this publication. For corrigenda subsequent to publication, please see unicef. org/publications. © United Nations Childrens Fund (UNICEF)Division of Data, Research and PolicyApril 2019unicef/mena/reports/mena-generation-2030 The designations employed in this publication and the presentation of the material do not imply on the part of the United Nations Childrens Fund (UNICEF) the expression of any opinion whatsoever concerning the legal status of any country or territory, or of its authorities or the delimitations of its frontiers.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSCore report team Veera Mendonca, Momo Duehring, and Arthur van Diesen from UNICEF, Middle East North Africa Regional Office; and Jan Beise, Sinae Lee, Bin Lian, Anastasia Mshvidobadze, and Danzhen You from UNICEF Headquarters. The report was co-authored by Elizabeth Dalling, in close collaboration with the core team. Design Razan Al Sheikh.Acknowledgements In addition to the collaboration between UNICEF Headquarters and the MENA Regional Office, this report has benefited from valuable contributions made by many colleagues throughout UNICEF. Particular thanks to Geert Cappelaere, Bertrand Bainvel, Roumiana Gantcheva, Adriana Vogelaar, Ider Dungerdorj, Buthaina Al-Iryani, Esmaeil Ibrahim, Anirban Chatterjee, Catherine Barnett, Juliette Touma, Tamara Kummer and Salim Oweis.The authors are also thankful for the support and expertise provided by the following experts in refining the recommendations and strategic priorities for action: Niranjan Sarangi, First Economic Affairs Officer, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia; Catriona Purfield, Assistant Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, International Monetary Fund; Rabah Arezki, Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa, The World Bank Group; Tariq A.Haq, Senior Employment Specialist Ghada Barsoum, Associate Professor, The American University in Cairo. The authors are grateful to the United Nations Population Division for providing the estimates and projections that form the basis of the population analysis in this report. This report represents a significant creative and technical collaboration between colleagues from UNICEF Headquarters and the Regional Office for the Middle East and North Africa. MENA GENERATION 20302 8 28 766638EXECUTIVE SUMMARYINTRODUCTION12CHAPTER 1Demographic projections for MENA CHAPTER 2The prospect of a demographic dividend in MENA ANNEXESAnnex 1: Implications for education service provisionAnnex 2: Implications for school-to-work transitionAnnex 3: Additional country-specifi c dataCHAPTER 4Reaping the dividend in MENA: priority policy actionsCHAPTER 3Barriers to the dividend in MENA and implications for service provision2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive summaryThe opportunityDuring the first half of the twenty-first century, an unprecedentedly large proportion of the population in the Middle East and North Africa will transition into their most productive years, opening up the potential for a demographic dividend - economic growth spurred by demographic changes. The most favourable period for the region as a whole will be between 2018 and 2040, when the dependency ratio is predicted to be lowest. This temporary lowering of the dependency ratio of the population has the potential to increase shared wealth and facilitate an expansion of opportunities for all - but only under certain conditions.Children and young people (0-24 year olds) in the Middle East and North Africa currently account for nearly half of the regions population and have the potential to become agents of change, acting for a more prosperous and stable future for themselves and their communities, and playing their part in reaping the demographic dividend. But unleashing this potential requires urgent and significant investment to create opportunities for meaningful learning, social engagement and work, all of which are currently limited, particularly for young women and the most vulnerable.The time to act is now. Due to a rapidly growing elderly population across the region, the window of opportunity to benefit from the demographic dividend will begin to close in the second half of the century. The problemA favourable age structure is essential. But other prerequisites for realising a demographic dividend such as political and social stability; inclusive and equitable economic and social policies; and expanded employment opportunities all face significant challenges in the region.1:Political and social instabilityThe cost of conflict and violence in the Middle East and North Africa is enormous and exposes children, adolescents and youth to the risk of death and injury; violence at home and school; lack of access to education; uncertainty and loss of investment, especially in human capital. These and other factors contribute to the region achieving the worlds lowest level of youth civic engagement a key driver of instability in its own right.Inequitable economic and social policiesMost countries in the region continue to marginalise adolescents and youth, particularly young women, the poor, refugees and those living with disabilities. Overlapping deprivations in the areas of health, protection and education severely compromise the ability of adolescents and youth to reach their full potential and become productive members of society and the economy.Limited employment opportunitiesYouth unemployment in the region is currently the highest in the world. Education systems are failing to prepare adolescents and youth for the workplace, and markets are not generating urgently needed jobs.1 See also: UNFPA, 2016. Shaping the Future: How Changing Demographics Can Power Human Development; World Bank Group. 2016. Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016: Development Goals in an Era of Demographic Change. World Bank, Washington, D.C. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3The solutionThe adolescents and youth of the Middle East and North Africa have the potential to become changemakers, by actively contributing to addressing the regions most pressing issues and to reaping the demographic dividend. But to unleash this potential, urgent policy actions are needed. Priorities will be determined by each countrys age structure, depending on whether they are at the pre-dividend, early-dividend or late-dividend stage. But whatever their demography, all countries have an obligation to ensure the health, protection, education, transition to employment and civic engagement of their adolescents and youth, particularly the most vulnerable.The time to act is nowAdolescents and youth across the Middle East and North Africa feel a sense of disillusionment, and frustration at the many barriers they face to effective learning and engagement with their communities and the workplace. According to the 2017 Arab Youth Survey, 55 per cent of youth feel that life in the region has deteriorated over the last decade.2 Yet participatory research reveals that these same adolescents and youth remain hopeful that their reality will change and are keen to engage positively in changing that reality.3It is vital that all governments, donors, practitioners, United Nations agencies and those with an interest in the future of the region play their part in fulfilling these hopes - both for the sake of the adolescents and youth themselves, and for their communities and countries to benefit from the demographic changes to come.The opportunity of a demographic dividend is an extra incentive for countries in the Middle East and North Africa to invest in a new generation of adolescents and youth that is strong, rejects violence and discrimination, and is prepared for positive engagement in lifelong learning and work.4 Transforming frustration and disengagement among adolescents and youth into active involvement in problem-solving in their families, communities, workplaces and beyond is possible.But it will not happen without intentional action. The time to act is now.2ASDAA Burson-Marsteller, 2017. Arab Youth Survey. 3UNICEF, 2017. Participatory Action Research. 4No Lost Generation and partners, 2017. Translating Research into Scaled Up Action: Evidence Symposium on Adolescents and Youth in MENA (summary report). A young boy in the village of Tamarout, High Atlas Mountains, Morocco. © UNICEF/UN0210232/Noorani4 MENA GENERATION 2030Contents Executive summary .Figures and tables .Acronyms and abbreviations .Introduction .Purpose and structure of the report . Who we are talking about: children, adolescents and youth . Why demographic projections matter: the demographic dividend .What we know so far: data sources and reliability . 1. Demographic projections for MENA Total population .Women of reproductive age and fertility .Mortality (including child mortality) and life expectancy .Children and youth .Density and urbanisation .Migration and forced displacement .2. The prospect of a demographic dividend in MENA The demographic dividend: a window of opportunity . Working age and dependent populations .Youth and gender in the labour market .3. Barriers to the dividend in MENA and implications for service provisionBarriers related to political and social stability .Barriers related to inclusive and equitable economic and social policy .Barriers related to expanded employment opportunities .Implications for basic service provision .4. Reaping the dividend in MENA: priority policy actions Different countries, different challenges and opportunities .Boosting the demographic dividend by investing in basic services .Facilitating the school-to-work transition for all .A double dividend? The economic benefits of peace .A triple dividend? Unlocking the potential of girls and women .Annexes: Barriers to the dividend in MENA and implications for service provisionAnnex 1: Implications for education service provision .Annex 2: Implications for school-to-work transition .Annex 3: Additional