BEYOND BINARY IPSOS THINKS The lives and choices of Generation ZIN 25 EU COUNTRIES, THE NUMBER OF YOUNG PEOPLE DETAINED BY THE POLICE DROPPED BY 42% BETWEEN 2008 AND 2014BEYOND BINARY The lives and choices of Generation Z IPSOS THINKSCONTENTS. 4 INTRODUCING GEN ZSOCIAL 18 PROGRESSIVE / TRADITIONAL 32 YOUTH GONE WILD / YOUTH GONE MILD 44 HEALTH TIME BOMB / HEALTH CONSCIOUS 58 TRUSTING / CYNICAL TECHNOLOGY 72 NEW MEDIA / TRADITIONAL MEDIA 90 TECH ENABLED / TECH WRECKED 112 PRIVATE / PUBLIC POLITICAL 124 YOUTHQUAKE / SNOWFLAKE ECONOMIC 144 IDEALISTIC / REALISTIC156 FINALLY158 ENDNOTES CONTACT IPSOS MORIcall: +44 (0)20 3059 5000 email: ukinfoipsos visit: thinks.ipsos-mori AUTHORS Bobby Duffy Chair, Ipsos MORI Public Affairs Hannah Shrimpton Research Manager Michael Clemence Research Manager Hannah Whyte-Smith Research Director Ffion Thomas Research Manager Tara Abboud Senior Research ExecutiveMillennials are old news. Gen Z are the new focus of attention, and often wild speculation. Most of them are still very young, with the oldest only just reaching their early 20s, but they are already the subject of spurious claims and myths about who they are and what theyre going to be. This report, the latest in our Ipsos MORI Thinks series, pulls together existing and new analysis, as well as brand new research on this latest generation, to provide a better understanding of the initial signals on how they will be different to, or the same as, previous generations. Before we outline the findings and their implications, there are five things we wanted to flag upfront. 1. MOST GENERATIONAL RESEARCH IS BAD Generational analysis is developing a bad name. And fair enough, because a lot of it is poorly done, aimed more at getting headlines or hits for simplistic interpretations of difference than providing true insight. This is not only annoying, its a genuine risk: as our recent report Millennial Myths and Realities outlined, these clichéd views can take hold, colouring the perception of a whole cohort and leading to bad decisions. INTRODUCING GEN Z .The truth is there are seldom big swings between generations. Instead we tend to see more gradual change, driven by some real differences in context. This is, in fact, a very good test of claimed generational differences: ask yourself why?. What could have driven this shift? If it cant be traced back to big, measurable changes in the environment, be cautious: whole cohorts of people do not magically transform. 2. GENERATIONAL FACTORS ARE OFTEN NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT DRIVERS OF DIFFERENCE We still love generational research not as an academic exercise, but because we believe it provides a great way to understand the future. If you can separate period effects (where everyone changes in a similar way at the same time, because of a societal shift or event), life cycle effects (where our attitudes and behaviours change as we age) and cohort effects (where a generation has different views and behaviours from others, and they take those with them as they age), you can start to predict what will happen. But that does not mean that we try to explain everything as a generational factor quite the opposite. As youll see throughout this report, lives are becoming more stretched and varied within a cohort group, and often its other things (like country, income, education) that are more important in explaining differences. Ironically for us, given our generational obsession, were the first to recognise that its ever more important to recognise the limitations of cohort explanations. 3. THERE IS NOT MUCH DATA ON GEN Z YET AND THE GENERATION AND CONTEXT IS CHANGING QUICKLY Were taking a relaxed attitude to the age groups we look at in this report, partly because there just isnt enough data to be precious about it. Officially, our definition of Gen Z is anyone born from 1996 (currently aged up to 22), but as youll see, we often focus on certain age groups particularly teenagers and young adults as this is where there is most data. We havent looked at young children below secondary/senior school age very much, as clearly they still have a lot of growing up to do and researchers who focus on children will tell you how little sense it makes to ask them about adult concepts. More than that, so many of the drivers of change for this cohort the first truly fast-internet enabled generation, from their earliest memories are technological, and this never stands still. Its therefore difficult to look at trends to see what is actually different, so weve had to make do with snapshot data in some places. But we think this pragmatic approach to the data is the right one, because were trying to get an overall sense of change. Some (good) evidence is better than none, and weve brought together in one place more than weve seen anywhere else. Cohort effect A cohort has different views and these stay different over time Period effect Attitudes of all cohorts change in a similar way over the same time period Life cycle effect Peoples attitudes change as they age attitudes are shifted by life stages or events THREE EFFECTS ON A POPULATIONS ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIOUR OVER TIME4. OUR THEME IS BEYOND BINARY BUT THATS ABOUT MUCH MORE THAN GENDER OR SEXUALITY One of the recurring themes weve seen in bad generational research is a tendency to segment everything into boxes this idea that the next cohort will be either this thing or that thing, never a mix or somewhere in between. But it just isnt as black and white as that. A good reading of the evidence takes into account the nuance and variation between cohorts, and this is what we hope to bring out. Each section tests out oppositions to highlight the tensions within this one generation. However, the Beyond Binary theme goes beyond that, applying to an emergent theme of flexibility in society. The stretching out of options and choices, partly fostered by technology, means the wide variety of possible lifestyles, attitudes and behaviours have led to a breakdown in homogeneity. This does include sexuality, but it extends to other areas of life, and this fluidity is something that government and brands will have to understand. The types of people you need to look at have extended massively. 5. WE DONT EVEN KNOW WHAT TO CALL THIS GENERATION YET Generational definition and naming is an interesting thing in its own right. There are obviously no hard boundaries around generations, and the ends of each birth range will blur into each other. But this doesnt reduce their value we use similarly arbitrary age, social class and geographical boundaries all the time. Some generations have clear demographic drivers (Baby Boomers), others draw on cultural references (Gen X), others are based on a point in time (Millennials). Some make more sense in some countries than others (there wasnt really a Baby Boom in some, for example), although wed argue that the inter- connection born from technological developments, means that some of the drivers of similarity are growing across countries. Were using Generation Z as our title for now, because it is currently the most recognised term (what do you have on Gen Z? is a common question from clients and journalists). But neither the boundaries around this generation, or their name, is set yet: were with the Pew Research Center on that its just a bit too soon. Equally that doesnt mean we cant say something useful about emerging differences and similarities, as we hope this report shows. IN SUMMARY Looking across the findings on everything from health, risk-taking behaviour, social action, technology use, attitudes to privacy, political views, optimism for the future, trust in institutions and people, social attitudes, sexuality and many other subjects we think there are seven main themes to pull out: 1. Increasingly fluid: as the title of the report suggests, this generation is less boxed in. Please dont think were making the clichéd point that anyone can be anything which you sometimes see taken from a generalisation of unrepresentative Twitter feeds, or meeting one young person who thinks that way. What we mean is that things are more open, less set, because people do have more ways to connect, see and experience more things. This doesnt deny the threats of a more ideological and tribal political context: technology has also fragmented people into their own bubbles and echo chambers. But, even in politics, the clear pattern is that each successive generation is significantly less wedded to one political party. Gen Z look similar to Millennials on this: theyll shift if you go wrong (or new options pop up, as in France or Italy). Its the same with brands: trying to target one group to the exclusion of others, implicitly telling people they can only be one thing or the other, would be a serious mistake. 2. No turning point on trust: do not believe the latest polls or headlines that scream about a new crisis of trust in our institutions, particularly not when they say its because of young people. Our new analysis shows no real differences in levels of trust among the young with regards to all sorts of traditional institutions. Its true, Millennials did mark a low point in trust in others (were not sure why maybe a sense of betrayed promises of progress), but now they are ageing, the differences are decreasing and Gen Z start adult life with much higher levels of trust. This does not mean that institutions and established brands have no challenges with the young, its just that declining trust is not the source. Frankly it is a cop-out, implicitly blaming consumers and citizens rather than encouraging brands and institutions to look at themselves. The issues are much more about efficacy, relevance and leadership. 3. Just as caring: technology has been democratising in many ways, including in making age, seniority or established connections a lot less important to whether you can have an impact or not. There are so many examples of young people starting movements that change things or bring pressure on those in power, in a way that would have been much more difficult in the past (without denying the importance of student-led movements since the 1960s). But this does not mean that Gen Z are a cohort of activists. Neither are they selfish snowflakes, too busy watching YouTube videos of people eating Tide Pods. The evidence suggests they are just as active in social causes as previous generations, sometimes in different ways (using technology), but just as often in traditional ways, such as volunteering. 4. Inflection point on health: the obesity epidemic may not be the constantly and inevitably escalating trend its sometimes made out to be, as it appears to stabilising among children in some countries. That doesnt mean were not in dangerous waters its not getting better either. A lot of this is arguably to do with the environment around young people which is shaped to make it harder to keep a healthy weight the people they see, the shops they shop at, the food they have available, all create a social norm, and are often geared to make them fat. But this is actually where there is hope on the horizon. Justified concerns about the health impacts of obesity are creating a wave of effective and innovative interventions. Gen Z have the prospect of more access to technologies, social media, and harder and more collaborative government interventions to help keep them a healthy weight. On top of this, theyre less likely to be getting involved in typically unhealthy behaviours particularly smoking and drinking which shows that some of the earlier interventions around this have really worked 5. Importance of digital skills: digital literacy is obviously going to become one of the most crucial skills to have in the next ten to 20 years. In some ways, Generation Z already have an innate advantage over other generations, just through growing up fully integrated with technology they are much more discerning of online sources than Millennial children ever were. But this should not make us complacent about the risks: near universal access to the internet in established markets hides the very real differences in uses and skills development between IN SOME WAYS, GEN Z ALREADY HAVE AN INNATE ADVANTAGE OVER OTHER GENERATIONS, JUST THROUGH GROWING UP FULLY INTEGRATED WITH TECHNOLOGY THEY ARE MUCH MORE DISCERNING OF ONLINE SOURCES THAN MILLENNIAL CHILDREN EVER WEREdifferent socio-economic groups within Gen Z. So working digital literacy and technological skills into both formal and informal education will become more vital, not less. This is not just to ensure all children are on a level playing field when it comes to taking full advantage of technology, but also to ensure that the adult Generation Z have tools to change jobs and upskill as technology transforms the labour market. 6. Danger is different: Generation Z are not the teenage rebels of ages past. Generational declines in youth crime, smoking, drinking and sexual activity reflect a significant behavioural shift. This has so many great implications. Theyre less at risk of all the negative mental, social and physical impacts of early exposure to sex, drugs and rock and roll (okay, not rock and roll). But society cannot rest on its laurels. This shift has not come from young people understanding and acknowledging the risks of these behaviours its more likely to do with them being stopped by more general societal changes and interventions, as well as a shift towards online activities. 7. And digital is double edged: this deep integration of digital communications into the lives of young people brings wider benefits in connection, social action, and self-expression but also its own risks. There is a growing body of evidence of the downsides from unfettered use of technology, prompting more strident statements from politicians and officials, including the head of the NHS in the UK. Social media use has correlations with anxiety, bullying, peer pressure, lower self-esteem, alongside much more positive outcomes. Were only in the infancy of understanding the full impact of this entirely different technological context on the first truly digitally native generation. But this does not mean we are powerless in mitigating the negative and emphasising the positive aspects of young peoples lives far from it. The calls for intervention from campaigners and legislators is likely to grow but, given how rapidly technology is developing, a long-term shift is much more likely through a collaborative approach, that uses the huge expertise of technology companies. If you would like a pres