产能变化规律性与本轮猪周期的独特之处.pdf
Table_MainInfo Table_Title / Table_Summary 20182019-2020 12009-20132006-2010 2010-2015/ / / 2 201820182019-2020 20194 16-18 / 202021-22 /Table_CompanyFinance EPS PE 2018A 2019E 2020E 2018A 2019E 2020E 37.30 0.74 2.21 3.96 50.08 16.86 9.41 12.97 -0.49 0.77 2.81 16.93 4.61 29.83 0.91 1.26 1.87 25.48 23.64 15.99 Table_Invest Table_PicQuote -17%-3%11%25%39%53%2018/62018/72018/82018/92018/102018/112018/122019/12019/22019/32019/42019/5Table_Trend % 1M 3M 12M -0.66% -0.90% 36.74% -5.22% -0.82% 30.03% Table_IndustryMarket 106 12398 9817 82.64 3.11 6264 119 % 49.53 Table_Report 2019 232019-06-10 2019 222019-06-02 2019-03-17 2019-01-14 S0550519010002 010-63210890 li_yaonesc S0550117090057 010-58034581 lijunfengnesc / 2019-06-23 2 / 30Table_PageTop . 3 1. . 3 1.1. .3 1.2. .4 1.3. .5 2. . 6 2.1. .6 2.2. .6 2.2.1. . 6 2.2.2. . 7 2.2.2.1. . 7 2.2.2.2. . 8 2.3. .9 2.3.1. . 9 2.3.2. . 11 2.4. 2010-2015 .12 2.4.1. 2010-2013 . 12 2.4.2. 2013 2014 . 13 2.4.3. 2014 2015 . 13 2.4.4. . 14 3. . 14 3.1. .14 3.1.1. . 14 3.1.2. . 16 3.2. .18 3.2.1. . 18 3.2.2. . 20 3.2.3. . 25 4. 2019-2020 . 26 4.1. 2019 4 .26 4.2. 2020 21-22 / .28 5. . 28 3 / 30Table_PageTop 10-11MSY2010-20152017-2018 2018 3-72019 2020 1. 2018 3 530%CPI1.1. 1 4 / 30Table_PageTop 1 1.2. 062006-2010 , 2010-2015 , 2015- 06(Cobweb model)2 2 tt tt+1 t+1t+25 / 30Table_PageTop 1.3. 10-113 3 2014MSY4 4 4 1.5-2 4-4.5 14 10 6 / 30Table_PageTop 4 2009 Wind 2. 2.1. MSY2.2. 2.2.1. 30%7 / 30Table_PageTop 5 Wind 676 7 Wind Wind 2.2.2. 2.2.2.1. 88 / 30Table_PageTop 2010 2014 5 201542010 11.78 / 9.48 /2009 20102010-2014 2010 22,7492009 20,825 9.24% 20102009 3.47% 20102011-2014 20158 Wind 2.2.2.2. 10-11t t+1 9 2009-20132010-20142009-20139 / 30Table_PageTop 9 Wind 2.3. 2.3.1. 2008 52012 610%10stage1stage2 2010 2015stage1 2011 2016stage210 / 30Table_PageTop 10 Wind 11 2009 -20102014 -201511 Wind 2009 -2013
