urbannature100 Nature in the Urban Century A global assessment of where and how to conserve nature for biodiversity and human wellbeingNature in and near cities is crucial not just for maintaining biodiversity but for ensuring human wellbeing, which depends on the benefits that nature provides. Photo © Boniface MuthoniIII Nature in the Urban Century Acknowledgments Coordinating Lead Authors Robert I. McDonald, MLisa Colbert, Maike Hamann, Rohan Simkin, Brenna Walsh. Lead Authors Fernando Ascensão, Melissa Barton, Katie Crossman, Misty Edgecomb, Thomas Elmqvist, Andrew Gonzalez, Burak Guneralp, Dagmar Haase, Oliver Hillel, Kangning Huang, David Maddox, Andressa Mansur, Joel Paque, Henrique Miguel Pereira, Jennifer Rae Pierce, Richard Weller, Karen Seto, Mika Mei Jia Tan, Carly Ziter. Contributing Authors Becky Chaplin-Kramer, Kytt MacManus, Richard Sharp. Reviewers Pippin Anderson, Kobie Brand, Andrew Deutz, Amy Fraenkel, Perrine Hamel, Linda Krueger, Pascal Mittermaier, Harini Nagendra, José Antônio Puppim de Oliveira, Hugh Possingham, Anne-Hélène Prieur-Richard, Lynn Scarlett, LaTresse Snead, Ellika Török, Ernita van Wyk, Weiqi Zhou, Mark Zimsky. Designers Paul Gormont - Apertures, Inc. Cover Photo STEVE WINTER/National Geographic Creative ©2018 The Nature Conservancy Printed on recycled paper. Partners T able of Contents Acknowledgments III Executive Summary 1 The challenge of managing urban growth .2 Where and how much natural habitat could be lost? .3 How will protected areas be affected? .5 Implications for climate action .6 A call to action in the urban century . 7 Nature in the urban century 9 Why conduct this assessment now? .10 An urban opportunity .10 Climate change adaptation in the urban century . 11 Scope of this report . 12 Urban growth trends 14 Drivers of urban land expansion . 15 1. Economic Growth . 16 2. Demographic Changes . 16 3. T echnology . 16 4. Cultural Influences.17 5. Governance .17 Challenges in projecting urban land expansion .17 1. Historical observations .17 2. Alternative futures. 18 Impacts of urban growth on biodiversity 20 Biodiversity change .20 Urbanization is a major driver of habitat loss .23 Urban growth causes habitat fragmentation . 24 Urban-caused habitat loss is associated with imperilment . 26 Urban impacts on biodiversity are spatially concentrated. 28 Urban impacts on Key Biodiversity Areas .31 Urban impacts on freshwater and marine biodiversity .33 Freshwater .33 Marine .35 IV Nature in the Urban CenturyV Nature in the Urban Century T able of Contents Impacts of urban growth on protected areas 37 Impacts of urban growth on climate change 43 Natural habitat and carbon storage . 43 Consumption and emissions within cities .46 Natural habitat and climate change adaptation: a case study of coastal resilience .46 Other important climate mitigation and adaptation services .49 Exploring solutions 51 Planning for a natural future . 51 Current Biodiversity Activities by Municipal Governments .53 Urban Biodiversity Reports and Plans .53 Urban Biodiversity Frameworks and Programs .55 Managing urban protected areas . 56 Integrating nature into cities .57 A call to action 60 1. Integrate local governments in national planning from the start .60 2. Empower cities to plan for a positive natural future. 61 3. Leverage international institutions . 61 4. Create a Convention on Biological Diversity for the urban century . 62 Methods 64 Urban growth analysis .64 Urban land over time .64 New urban land by country .64 Habitat loss analysis . 65 Habitat loss calculation . 65 Key biodiversity areas . 65 Imperilment analysis.66 Protected area analysis .66 Carbon analysis .66 Coastal analysis .67 Tables 68 T able 1 .68 T able 2 . 69 T able 3 . 70 T able 4 .71 Works cited 72Medina Lake, T exas, United States. © Blake Gordon Governments around the world need to plan for a positive natural future. Photo © Leander Urmy1 Nature in the Urban Century Executive Summary This century will be remembered as the urban century. Our generation will witness the most significant urban growth in human history. By 2050, there will be 2.4 billion more people in cities, a rate of urban growth that is equivalent to building a city with the population of London every seven weeks. Humanity will urbanize an area of 1.2 million km 2 , larger than the country of Colombia (Figure 1). Cities have been called humanitys greatest invention, a way of living that can bring many benefits, including increased economic productivity and innovation, greater opportunities for education and individual enhancement, and more efficient use of natural resources and energy. The urban century thus holds enormous opportunity for humanity. However, the Urban Century also presents a challenge to the global environment, both directly through the expansion of urban area and indirectly through urban energy and resource use. Urban growth is one of the main global issues that the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) must address to meet its ambitious goals. Governments must envision a positive natural future for our urban century, a future in which sustainable urban growth occurs in appropriate places while nearby nature is protected, restored, and enhanced. Nature in and near cities is crucial not just for maintaining biodiversity but also for ensuring human wellbeing, which depends on the benefits that nature provides. This report presents a business-as-usual scenario, which assumes that current urban growth trends continue, and quantifies the impact that urban growth could have on biodiversity and human wellbeing. This report also quantifies the significance of natural habitat for climate mitigation and adaptation. We end by highlighting solutions that can help avoid the negative impacts forecasted under our business- as-usual scenarioways that governments at all levels can plan and implement a positive natural future for our urban century. 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 Urban Area (km 2 ) 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year Region Africa Americas Asia Europe eania Figure 1: Urban land area by region (1992 2030). / / Nature in and near cities is crucial not just for maintaining biodiversity but for ensuring human wellbeing, which depends on the benefits that nature provides.The challenge of managing urban growth This report depicts how the projected rapid rates of urban growth could, if poorly planned, destroy natural habitat and greatly impact biodiversity and human wellbeing. Urban growth, per se, has been considered relatively little under the CBD process to date. However, preventing habitat conversion and increasing land protection are both key goals of Aichi Targets 5 and 11, and both issues are, and will continue to be, affected by urban growth. Urban growth also affects numerous other issues that are related to CBDs Aichi Biodiversity Targets, such as ecosystem service provision (Aichi Target 14) and ecosystem resilience (Aichi Target 15). p pj w 5 U w U ww p p w 5 2/CO2q pp pp L H z C p