科大讯飞：“AI+”落地先行者，打造多个百亿收入集群.pdf
| 2019 03 27 002230.SZ AI+ + 4 + 2018 H1 80 AI AI 2019 2018 2019 IT 2017 2018 IT 2018 AI IT IT AI+ 1.5 1500 2017 1500 2018 8907 166% 36% 70% 15% 156 AI+ C C 2018 ToC 10.84 130% C 22% 34% ToC C 2.0 2018 10 2.0 5 20 200% AI+ 18 6.76 204.5% 1 815 23% 2 2018 3 2018-2020 5.29 8.28 12.26 2018-2020 52% PEG1.5 PE 78 956 P/S 2019 892 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 3,320 5,445 8,067 11,923 16,903 yoy % 32.8 64.0 48.2 47.8 41.8 484 435 529 828 1,226 yoy % 13.9 -10.3 21.8 56.5 48.0 EPS / 0.23 0.21 0.25 0.40 0.59 % 6.9 6.0 6.9 10.0 13.2 P/E 151.9 169.3 139.0 88.8 60.0 P/B 10.42 9.53 9.06 8.42 7.54 35.16 ( ) 73,573.37 ( ) 2,092.53 (%) 87.08 30 ( ) 60.28 S0680518090001 liugaochanggszq laipenggszq -57% -46% -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 2018-03 2018-07 2018-11 2019-03 300 2019 03 27 P.2 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 5533 7243 10144 14583 20022 3320 5445 8067 11923 16903 2540 2644 3934 5517 8032 1643 2647 3932 5737 8040 1798 2552 3901 5450 7653 30 43 63 95 139 284 319 630 731 1227 649 1111 1646 2420 3414 54 41 84 129 156 729 1177 1759 2587 3651 604 890 1026 2038 2197 -34 -26 -22 -29 -45 252 796 568 719 756 66 110 161 232 330 4881 6098 6781 7685 9166 0 0 0 0 0 289 317 377 440 509 147 49 53 63 72 1060 1454 2104 2946 4089 384 540 669 1062 1591 1362 1691 1762 1767 1723 191 49 42 62 80 2170 2636 2538 2532 2844 14 12 18 28 48 10414 13340 16925 22268 29188 561 577 693 1096 1623 2521 4495 7623 12202 17880 64 98 118 186 275 306 421 2275 4123 7384 497 479 575 910 1348 617 1060 1593 2155 3181 12 45 46 82 121 1598 3015 3755 5925 7315 484 435 529 828 1226 674 893 903 966 1069 EBITDA 846 954 1146 1676 2351 371 461 391 321 281 EPS / 0.23 0.21 0.25 0.40 0.59 303 432 512 645 788 3195 5388 8526 13168 18950 157 235 281 363 484 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 1315 1389 2093 2093 2093 4121 5254 4560 4560 4560 % 32.8 64.0 48.2 47.8 41.8 1625 1927 2333 2963 3904 % 28.9 40.6 24.0 58.8 49.8 7061 7718 8118 8737 9754 % 13.9 -10.3 21.8 56.5 48.0 10414 13340 16925 22268 29188 % 50.5 51.4 51.3 51.9 52.4 % 14.6 8.0 6.6 6.9 7.3 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E ROE % 6.9 6.0 6.9 10.0 13.2 299 363 604 1259 1497 ROIC 6.0 5.3 5.1 6.6 7.4 497 479 575 910 1348 318 400 472 606 771 % 30.7 40.4 50.4 59.1 64.9 -34 -26 -22 -29 -45 % -25.8 -22.2 -13.9 -10.6 -2.4 -147 -49 -53 -63 -72 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 -381 -519 -436 -133 -522 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 45 77 68 -34 17 -923 -1500 -1170 -1413 -2198 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1065 1036 597 549 1198 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 175 -447 -60 -74 -70 2.8 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.0 318 -910 -633 -938 -1070 / 479 1257 140 79 105 0.23 0.21 0.25 0.40 0.59 84 115 139 190 150 0.11 0.10 0.29 0.60 0.72 333 90 -69 -70 -40 3.37 3.69 3.88 4.18 4.66 29 73 704 0 0 410 1133 -694 0 0 P/E 151.9 169.3 139.0 88.8 60.0 -377 -154 61 -40 -5 P/B 10.42 9.53 9.06 8.42 7.54 -144 119 -425 -75 -595 EV/EBITDA 85.03 75.7 63.5 43.6 31.4 2019 03 27 P.3 . 5 1.1 AI . 5 1.2 AI . 7 1.3 + . 8 1.4 To G/B/C . 9 AI+ . 11 2.1 2.0 . 11 2.2 AI . 13 2.3 1.3 . 15 2.4 AI . 16 AI+ C C . 22 3.1 ToC . 22 3.2 C . 22 3.3 AI . 25 AI+ . 26 4.1 23% . 26 4.2 . 27 4.3 . 30 . 30 5.1 . 31 5.2 . 32 5.3 . 34 5.4 . 34 . 35 6.1 . 35 6.2 . 40 . 41 1 . 5 2 . 6 3 2017 Gartner . 6 4 BATI . 7 5 . 8 6 . 9 7 VS DuerOS . 9 8 . 10 9 . 11 10 GDP . 11 11 . 11 12 . 12 13 + 6800 . 13 2019 03 27 P.4 14 80% . 13 15 . 14 16 . 14 17 AI . 15 18 . 15 19 . 16 20 . 16 21 .
