中国铁塔：通信新晋力量，5G基建先锋.pdf
| 2018 08 08 00788.HK 5G 2018-2020 EBITDA 429/475/558 EV/EBITDA 1.93 1.68 EV/EBITDA 12 5G 10 20 EBITDA EV/EBITDA EV + - +5G 2018-2020 736/821/979 7%/12%/19% 2018 +1 +35% 5G 4G 4 2022 1.8 17 11 AMT 13 9% 6% 10 39% AMT 2011 3 AMT 12 97% 5G 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 56045 68,814 73,556 82,109 97,942 yoy% 536.2 22.8 6.9 11.6 19.3 76.0 1,943 4,059 6,717 10,509 yoy% 1.4 3,862.7 52.2 65.5 56.5 EPS / 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 % 0.06 1.52 3.18 5.18 8.04 P/E 3947.4 154.4 73.9 44.7 28.5 P/B 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.26 1.93 S0680513050001 dingqionggszq 2018 08 08 P.2 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 39565 30522 35761 33142 34452 56045 68814 73556 82109 97942 17249 7852 13268 10560 11914 55997 68665 73556 82109 97942 0 0 0 0 0 48 149 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22313 22637 22475 22556 22516 50295 59620 62941 67999 78908 3 33 18 26 22 65 104 111 124 148 0 0 0 0 0 5077 5283 5659 6317 7536 272103 292126 304406 306249 307144 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 259380 269068 279118 289543 300358 738 4015 5067 7917 11647 0 0 0 0 0 -632 -1330 -981 -1156 -1068 12723 23058 25288 16705 6787 0 0 0 0 0 311668 322648 340167 339390 341596 106 2685 4086 6761 10579 171568 150041 160805 155423 158114 30 742 27 45 70 37253 95260 66257 80758 73507 76 1943 4059 6717 10509 39840 31906 35873 33890 34881 0 0 0 0 0 94475 22875 58675 40775 49725 76 1943 4059 6717 10509 14548 45107 49963 52133 52758 EBITDA 32655 40357 42879 47505 55781 12280 43793 48172 50581 51087 EPS 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 2268 1314 1791 1553 1672 186116 195148 210768 207556 210872 129345 129345 130638 131945 133264 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E -3793 -1850 -2822 -2336 -2579 0 0 0 0 0 % 536.2 22.78 6.89 11.63 19.28 125552 127495 127817 129609 130686 % 221.8 55.2 24.2 34.6 38.8 0 0 0 0 0 % -101.4 3862.7 52.2 65.5 56.5 311668 322643 338585 337165 341558 EBITDA % 58.3 58.8 58.3 57.9 57.0 % 0.1 3.9 5.5 8.2 10.7 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E ROE % 0.1 1.5 3.2 5.2 8.0 27594 34935 37495 41563 48568 ROIC 0.0 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.2 76 1943 4059 6717 10509 27585 32642 33295 34601 37865 % 59.7 60.5 62.2 61.6 61.7 -5806 -7005 -6406 -6705 -6555 % 148.2 153.1 164.9 160.1 161.4 0 0 0 0 0 23.1 20.3 22.2 21.3 21.8 5739 7355 6547 6951 6749 23.1 20.3 22.2 21.3 21.8 0 0 0 0 0 -46023 -51915 -56652 -77369 -93011 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 -46085 -52001 -49043 -50522 -49783 5.5 6.3 5.9 6.1 6.0 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.3 62 86 74 80 77 22025 7583 24573 33098 45797 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 46612 131479 89046 110262 99654 0.15 0.20 0.21 0.23 0.27 20887 42923 31905 37414 34660 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2030 3358 5255 P/E 3947.4 154.4 73.9 44.7 28.5 -3700 -80973 -98408 -117937 -93771 P/B 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 3596 -9397 5416 -2708 1354 EV/EBITDA - - 12.0 12.0 12.0 2018 08 08 P.3 1. 2 . 5 2. . 6 3. EBITDA . 8 4. . 10 4.1. +1 +35% . 10 4.2. 1 2 -40% . 15 4.3. 1.48 . 16 5. . 17 5.1. 5G . 18 5.2. . 18 6. . 19 7. . 21 7.1. . 21 7.2. . 24 8. . 24 8.1. . 24 8.2. 50% . 25 8.3. AMT . 25 . 26 1 . 6 2 . 7 3 2017 . 7 4 2015-2017 . 8 5 2015-2018Q1 EBITDA . 8 6 . 8 7 97% . 8 8 . 8 9 . 9 10 2015-2018Q1 . 9 11 EBITDA . 10 12 . 10 13 2018 . 11 14 3 . 11 15 . 12 16 . 12 17 . 13 18 2018 . 13 19 2017-2022 30 . 14 20 . 14 21 2017-2022 . 15 2018 08 08 P.4 22 . 15 23 20 2018 . 16 24 10 2018 . 16 25 2018 1.48 . 16 26 2018 1.23 . 17 27 2018 1.42 . 17 28 . 17 29 . 17 30 . 17 31 2015-2018Q1 . 18 32 AMT . 19 33 .
