At the Dawn of Belt and RoadChina in the Developing WorldAndrew Scobell, Bonny Lin, Howard J. Shatz, Michael Johnson, Larry Hanauer, Michael S. Chase, Astrid Stuth Cevallos, Ivan W. Rasmussen, Arthur Chan, Aaron Strong, Eric Warner, Logan MaC O R P O R A T I O NLimited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit rand/pubs/permissions.The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RANDs publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Support RANDMake a tax-deductible charitable contribution at rand/giving/contributerandLibrary of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication.ISBN: 978-0-8330-9991-4For more information on this publication, visit rand/t/RR2273Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.© Copyright 2018 RAND CorporationR® is a registered trademark.Cover: China with sunset on Earth by harvepino / Adobe Stock.iiinull-1nullnull+1PrefaceThis report documents research and analysis conducted as part of a project entitled China in the Developing World, sponsored by the United States Army Pacific. The purpose of the project is to examine Chinas economic, political, and military activities in the Developing World and provide insights to help inform U.S. Army decisions regard-ing presence and force posture in the region. Specifically, the study explores Chinas economic, political, and security roles in Southeast Asia, Oceania, Central Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean. The report also examines Chinas bilateral relationships with the key states in each region. Finally, the report contemplates the consequences of the Chinese strategy toward the Developing World for the United States. It should be of interest to U.S. Army strategists and planners, other U.S. military personnel focusing on China, and anyone interested in Chinas international relations.The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is HQD156900.This research was conducted within the RAND Arroyo Centers Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center (FFRCD) sponsored by the United States Army. RAND operates under a “Federal-Wide Assurance” (FWA00003425) and complies with the Code of Federal Regulations for the Protec-tion of Human Subjects Under United States Law (45 CFR 46), also known as “the Common Rule,” as well as with the implementation RR2273A_CC2015.indb 3 8/14/18 11:11 AMiv At the Dawn of Belt and Road-1null0null+1nullguidance set forth in DoD Instruction 3216.02. As applicable, this compliance includes reviews and approvals by RANDs Institutional Review Board (the Human Subjects Protection Committee) and by the U.S. Army. The views of sources utilized in this study are solely their own and do not represent the official policy or position of DoD or the U.S. government.RR2273A_CC2015.indb 4 8/14/18 11:11 AMvnull-1nullnull+1ContentsPreface . iiiFigures . ixTables . xiSummary .xiiiAcknowledgments . xxxiiiAbbreviations . xxxvCHAPTER ONEIntroduction . 1The Plan for the Report .10CHAPTER TWOChina in the Zone: The Cold War and After .11Maoist Foreign Policy Strategy and the Developing World, 19491977 .13Dengist Foreign Policy Strategy and the Developing World, 19781991 .16Globalization Strategy and the Developing World, 1992 to Present .18Contemporary Chinese Foreign Policy and the Developing World .21Drivers of Current Chinese Engagement with the Developing World . 30Roadmap for Regional Chapters . 36RR2273A_CC2015.indb 5 8/14/18 11:11 AMvi At the Dawn of Belt and Road-1null0null+1nullCHAPTER THREEChina in Southeast Asia .37Drivers of Chinese Engagement .39Political Engagement . 44Economic Engagement .55Military and Security Engagement .62Conclusion .70CHAPTER FOURChina in Oceania .75Drivers of Chinese Engagement .76Political Engagement . 77Economic Engagement . 80Military and Security Engagement .85Conclusion . 86CHAPTER FIVEChina in Central Asia .89Drivers of Chinese Engagement .91Political Engagement . 97Economic Engagement . 101Military and Security Engagement . 107Conclusion . 114CHAPTER SIXChina in South Asia . 121Drivers of Chinese Engagement . 123Political Engagement . 128Economic Engagement . 132Military and Security Engagement . 138Conclusion . 144CHAPTER SEVENChina in the Middle East . 147Drivers of Chinese Engagement . 148Political Engagement . 153RR2273A_CC2015.indb 6 8/14/18 11:11 AMContents viinull-1nullnull+1Economic Engagement . 156Military and Security Engagement . 161Conclusion . 166CHAPTER EIGHTChina in Africa . 171Drivers of Chinese Engagement . 173Political Engagement . 178Economic Engagement . 187Military and Security Engagement . 198Conclusion . 208CHAPTER NINEChina in Latin America and the Caribbean . 215Drivers of Chinese Engagement . 218Political Engagement . 220Economic Engagement . 226Military and Security Engagement . 236Conclusion . 241CHAPTER TENPivotal Regional Partnerships . 245Pursuing Partnerships . 247Two Tiers of Pivotal Regional Partnerships . 251Conclusion . 281CHAPTER ELEVENConclusion . 285Regions and Rings . 286Pivotal Regional Partnerships . 294Ranking Regions by the Numbers . 295The United States and China in the Developing World: Partners in Parallel? . 299Two Caveats . 302RR2273A_CC2015.indb 7 8/14/18 11:11 AMviii At the Dawn of Belt and Road-1null0null+1nullAPPENDIX AActors Involved in Shaping or Influencing Chinese Foreign Policy . 303References . 309RR2273A_CC2015.indb 8 8/14/18 11:11 AMixnull-1nullnull+1FiguresS.1. Chinas Four Rings of Insecurity . xiv2.1. Chinas Four Rings of Insecurity .252.2. Chinas Belt and Road Initiative, 2015 .293.1. Chinas Relations with Countries in Southeast Asia, 2015 .393.2. Chinese Maritime Claims in the South China Sea and Land Reclamation, June 2015 . 503.3. U.S. and Chinese Trade with ASEAN, 20002013 . 563.4. Composition of Imports from Southeast Asia .573.5. Composition of Exports to Southeast Asia .583.6. Level of Exports to and Imports from Southeast Asia .593.7. Chinese FDI Stock in Southeast Asia by Receiving Country, 2013 . 604.1. Composition of Imports from Oceania .814.2. Composition of Exports to Oceania .824.3. Level of Exports to and Imports from Oceania .834.4. Chinese FDI Stock in Oceania by Receiving Country .835.1. Chinas Relations with Countries in Central Asia, 2015 .915.2. Composition of Imports from Central Asia . 1035.3. Composition of Exports to Central Asia . 1045.4. Level of Exports to and Imports from Central Asia . 1055.5. Chinas FDI Stock in Central Asia by Receiving Country . 1065.6. Russias FDI Stock in Central Asia by Receiving Country . 1066.1. Chinas Relations with Countries in South Asia, 2015 . 1226.2. Composition of Imports from South Asia . 133RR2273A_CC2015.indb 9 8/14/18 11:11 AMx At the Dawn of Belt and Road-1null0null+1null6.3. Composition of Exports to South Asia . 1346.4. Level of Exports to and Imports from South Asia . 1356.5. Chinas FDI Stock in South Asia by Receiving Country . 1357.1. Chinas Relations with Countries in the Middle East, 2015. 1497.2. Composition of Imports from Middle East . 1577.3. Composition of Exports to Middle East . 1587.4. Level of Exports to and Imports from Middle East . 1597.5. Chinas FDI Stock in the Middle East by Receiving Country . 1608.1. Chinas Relations with Countries in Africa, 2015 . 1728.2. Composition of Imports from Africa . 1898.3. Composition of Exports to Africa . 1908.4. Level of Exports to and Imports from Africa . 1918.5. Chinas FDI Stock in Africa by Top Receiving Countries . 1929.1. Chinas Relations with Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2015 . 2179.2. Composition of Imports from Latin America . 2299.3. Composition of Exports to Latin America . 2309.4. Level of Exports to and Imports from Latin America . 2319.5. Chinese FDI Stock in Latin America and the Caribbean by Receiving Country, 2013 . 23210.1. Chinas Share of Pakistans Arms Purchases, 19782012, Percent . 271RR2273A_CC2015.indb 10 8/14/18 11:11 AM