Office of the Chief EconomistU.S. Agricultural Outlook2018 and Longer-term projectionsRobert JohanssonChief EconomistUS Department of AgricultureBeijing, China (April 2018)2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOCOffice of the Chief EconomistIMF growth forecasts more optimistic3.003.504.004.505.005.502014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021April 2017 forecastOctober 2017 forecastApril 2018 forecastPercent changeWorld3.003.504.004.505.005.502014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021April 2017 forecastOctober 2017 forecastApril 2018 forecastPercent changeEmerging markets and developing countries Data: IMF.22018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOCOffice of the Chief EconomistDollar depreciating so far in 2018 versus customer currencies-10-505101520252015 2016 2017 2018 to dateCanadian dollar Korea wonJapan yen Mexico pesoTaiwan dollar China yuan% change Y-O-YData: Thomson Reuters Datastream32018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOCOffice of the Chief EconomistDown versus most competitor currencies too-20-100102030405060702015 2016 2017 2018 to dateArgentina peso Australia dollarBrazil real Canadian dollarEurozone euro Russia ruble% change Y-O-YData: Thomson Reuters Datastream42018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOCOffice of the Chief EconomistOutlook for World Agriculture USDA short term outlook for U.S. agriculture in 2018 USDA long term agricultural projections to 202752018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOCOffice of the Chief EconomistShort Term Outlook for U.S. Crops62018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOCOffice of the Chief EconomistGlobal production and consumption continue near record highs3004005006007008002013/142014/152015/162016/17F2017/18*MMTProductionConsumptionWheatData: USDA-OCE, USDA-FAS3004005006007008009001,0001,1001,200MMTProductionConsumptionCorn050100150200250300350400MMTProductionConsumptionSoybeans72018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOCOffice of the Chief EconomistGlobal ending stocks to continue relatively high, moderating price volatility40801201602000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016Wheat CornRice SoybeansEnding stocks days of useData: USDA. 82018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOCOffice of the Chief EconomistChina stocks, percent of world total0204060801990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017FWheatCornRiceSoybeansCottonPercentData: USDA9China Stocks 17/18 (MMT)Wheat 127Corn 80Rice 94Soybeans 21Cotton 92018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOCOffice of the Chief EconomistSome U.S. prices expected to edge up in 2018/2019Source: USDA. From USDA Baseline. Other columns from April 10, 2018 WASDE2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F %Wheat ($/MT) 220 180 143 171 173 +1%Corn ($/MT) 146 142 132 132 134 +2%Soybeans ($/MT) 371 329 348 342 340 0%Cotton ($/MT) 1,351 1,349 1,499 1,499 1,389 -9%All Rice ($/MT) 295 269 229 278 262 -5%102018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC