1 Jim Hansen1, Mary Marchant2, Francis Tuan3 and Agapi Somwaru4 1USDA, Economic Research Service, jhanseners.usda.gov 2Virginia Tech, mary.marchantvt.edu 3Renmin University of China fctuanComcast 4Economic Consulting, agapi.somwarugmail Global Agricultural Trade: United States, China and Emerging Markets 2018 China Agricultural Outlook Conference, Beijing, China, April 20 - 21, 2018. 1Acknowledgements: Funding for this work was provided by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA-NIFA) and the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative (AFRI), USDA-NIFA-AFRI Grant Number 2014-67023-21946, “Expanding U.S. Market Access in Chinas Evolving Agricultural and Trade Policy Environment.” Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the authors and do not represent those of the USDA Economic Research Service or the United States Department of Agriculture. 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2 Outline World Agriculture Trade A Growth Story Chinas and United States agricultural trade US Exports of bulk, Intermediate commodities, specialty products and niche markets, Emerging markets and growing agricultural imports 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC0 . 00 . 20 . 40 . 60 . 81 . 01 . 21 . 41 . 61 . 82 . 01990 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 2016A g ri c u l t u ra l R e l a t e dBu l kI n t e rm e d i a t e C o n s u m e r O ri e n t e d World Agricultural Trade Trillion of Dollars, (2017 Real Dollars) Source: U.N. Trade Data, WTO definition, April 2018. 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC4 The Largest Agricultural Trading Countries in Billion US$ 2016-2017 average Imports EU 28 456.3 United States 125.9 China 109.7 Japan 55.3 Canada 34.7 Mexico 27.1 India 26.1 Russia 26.0 South Korea 24.9 Hong Kong 24.9 Indonesia 18.3 Malaysia 14.9 Turkey 13.6 Exports EU 28 456.2 United States 141.1 Brazil 76.3 China 54.1 Canada 44.3 Argentina 34.6 Australia 34.5 Indonesia 32.9 India 30.1 Mexico 29.9 Thailand 26.7 Malaysia 23.2 New Zealand 22.0 Source: Global Trade Atlas, WTO AG Group 2012, World & Partners, April 2018. 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC01002003004005006007001986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026T h a i R i c e BS o y b e a n s R o t t e r d a mW h e a t U S G u l fS o r g h u m U S G u l fC o r n U S G u l fInternational Commodity Price USDAs Projections 2018-2027 (US$/mt nominal) US$/metric ton Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2027, February 2018, based on November 2017 data. 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC0510152025302001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017C a n a d a C h i n a M e x i c o J a p a n K o r e a , S o u t hUnited States Agricultural Exports: Top Five Countries (US$ Billion) Billion US$ Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2027, February 2018, based on November 2017 data. 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOCO i l s e e d s & Pro d sG ra i n s & F e e d sH i d e s & Sk i n sF i s h & Sh e l l f i s hC o t t o nM e a t s & Pro d u c t sF ru i t s & V e gD a i ry Pro d u c t sF a rm M a c h & C h e mO t h e rUnited States Agriculture Exports to China In Billion Dollars (2016-2017 average) Billion dollars (annual) Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Global Agricultural Trade System database, FATUS, April 2018. 13.5 Billion Dollars Oilseeds 2.4 Grains 1.0 Hides 1.2 Fish 0.77 0.65 0.75 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOCF o re s t Pro d u c t sC o n s u m e r-O ri e n t e dSe a f o o d Pro d u c t sI n t e rm e d i a t e Pro d u c t sBu l kChina Agriculture Exports to United States In Billion Dollars (2016-2017 average) Billion dollars (annual) Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Global Agricultural Trade System database, FATUS, April 2018. 3.6 Billion Dollars Forest Products 2.9 Consumer Oriented 2.7 Seafood Products 1.3 Intermediate Goods 0.29 Bulk 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC0 . 02 . 04 . 06 . 08 . 01 0 . 01 2 . 01990 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16Bu l k T o t a lI n t e rm e d i a t e T o t a lSe a f o o d Pro d u c t sC o n s u m e r-O ri e n t e dF o re s t Pro d u c t sChinas Annual Agriculture Exports to the U.S. Billion of Dollars, (2017 Real) Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Global Agricultural Trade System database, BICO, April 2018. 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC02040608010012014095 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17So y b e a n s M e a t s , F i s h , D a i ry , Eg g sF o o d s , Be v e ra g e , Ba k i n g O t h e O i l Se e d s , F a t s a n d O i l sC o t t o n + Y a rn , F a b ri c C e re a lV e g , F ru i t , N u t s H i d e s A n d Sk i n sF e rt i l z e rChinas Annual Agriculture Imports from the World Billion of Dollars (2017 Real) Source: World Trade Atlas International, China Customs Data, April 2018. 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC 2018AOC