Towards cross-modal electrification Global EV Outlook 2018IEA member countries:AustraliaAustria BelgiumCanada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA. © OECD/IEA, 2018 International Energy Agency Website: iea Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at iea/t n E c onom i c D e v e l op m e n t: Supporting free markets to foster economic growth and eliminate energy poverty; n Environmental Awareness: Analysing policy options to offset the impact of energy production and use on the environment, especially for tackling climate change and air pollution; and n E n g a g e me n t W o r ld w i d e: Working closely with association and partner countries, especially major emerging economies, to find solutions to shared energy and environmental concerns. Together Secure Sustainable© OECD/IEA 2018 Global EV Outlook 2018 Towards cross-modal electrification Page | 3 Acknowledgements Global EV Outlook 2018 was developed and prepared by the Energy Technology Policy (ETP) Division of the Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks (STO) of the International Energy Agency (IEA), under the direction of Dave Turk, Acting Director of STO. Pierpaolo Cazzola co-ordinated this project. This report was collectively developed by (in alphabetical order): Till Bunsen, Pierpaolo Cazzola, Marine Gorner, Leonardo Paoli, Sacha Scheffer, Renske Schuitmaker, Jacopo Tattini and Jacob Teter. It benefited from the support provided by Simon Bennett, Emanuele Bianco, Paul Hugues, George Kamiya, Sarbojit Pal, Kate Palmer, Apostolos Petropoulos and Oliver Schmidt. In addition, Jian Liu (Energy Research Institute, China) provided extensive support regarding China's data, policies and EV market development during the preparation of this report. Bertrand Sadin assisted with the graphic design. Several in-depth interviews were conducted to help obtain more detailed information on specific topics. Valuable input was received from Haakoen Gloeersen (Siemens), Antti Lajunen (Aalto university, Finland), Zoe Yang (Xcharge) and Edison Yin (BYD). The following individuals have contributed to developing the activities of the Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI) on behalf of their governments through providing data and assistance, and reviewing this report: Carol Burelle (Canada), Aaron Hoskin (Canada), Paula Vieira (Canada), René-Pierre Allard (Canada), Yong Jin (the Peoples Republic of China hereafter “China”), Lijin Zhao (China), Shuhua Jiang (China), Chengxi Li (China), Guofang Liu (China), Jinchen Gua (China), Zheng Yali (China), Pentti Puhakka (Finland), Nils-Olof Nylund (Finland), Mikko Pihlatie (Finland), Cédric Messier (France), Maude Premillieu (France), Clarisse Durand (France), Gereon Meyer (Germany), Birgit Hofmann (Germany), Abhay Bakre (India), Pravin Agrawal (India), Ishan Jain (India), Harish Sikri (India), Vishvajit Sahay (India), Raj Kumar Singh (India), Zuiou Ashihara (Japan), Santiago Creuheras (Mexico), Víctor Zúñiga (Mexico), Maria Ramos (Mexico), Leonardo Beltrán (Mexico), Sonja Munnix (the Netherlands), Jannis Rippis (Norway), Asbjørn Johnsen (Norway), Havard Grothe Lien (Norway), Martin Palm (Sweden), Peter Kasche (Sweden), Tim Ward (United Kingdom), Rob Gould (United Kingdom), Bob Moran (United Kingdom), Russel Conklin (United States) and David Howell (United States). Peer reviewers provided essential feedback to improve the quality of the report. They include: Patrik Akerman (Siemens), Laurent Antoni (French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission), Debashish Bhattacharjee (UN Habitat), Robert Bienenfeld (American Honda), Tomoko Blech (CHAdeMO), David Brocas (Glencore), Remzi Can Samsun (Forschungszentrum Jülich), Romain Capaldi (Navigant), Anri Cohen (BP), Marcello Contestabile (E4tech Ltd), Santiago Creuheras (Mexicos Ministry of Energy), Jos Dings (Tesla (Europe), Elizabeth Endler (Shell), Miguel Fernandez Astudillo (University of Sherbrooke), Peter Fitzmaurice (Industrial Minerals), Diego Garcia Carvajal (European Copper Institute), Bogdan Gagea (BP), Nancy Garland (U.S. Department of Energy), Marjan Gjelaj (Technical University of Denmark), Mattias Goldmann (Fores), Ichiro Gonda (NGK Spark Plug), Andrew Gunn (British Geological Survey), Hans Christian Haag (Bosch), Dale Hall (ICCT), Maija Halme (Fortum), Colin Hamilton (BMO Capital Markets), Gavin Harper (University of Birmingham), Auke Hoesktra (Technische Universiteit Eindhoven), Cabell Hodge (United States), Kaoru Horie (Honda), Cornie Huizenga (SloCaT), Cyrille Jouin (Glencore Ni Department), Hiroyuki Kaneko (Nissan), Monika Kuusela (Fortum), Marcel Meeus (SUSTESCO), Nguyen Khac-Tiep (UNIDO retired), Alex Koerner (UNEP), Max Kofod (Shell), Atsushi Kurosawa (The Institute of Applied Energy), Antti Lajunen (Aalto University (Finland), Francisco Laveron (Iberdrola), Magnus Lindgren (Swedish Transport Administration), Jochen Global EV Outlook 2018 © OECD/IEA 2018 Towards cross-modal electrification Page | 4 Linßen (Forschungszentrum Jülich), Felix Maire (S&P Global Platts Analytics), Nicolas Meilhan (Frost & Sullivan), Josh Miller (ICCT), Christine Mounaim-Rousselle (University of Orleans), Benjamin Munzel (Ecofys - A Navigant Company), Matteo Muratori (United States), Todd Onderdonk (ExxonMobil), Claire Painter (Climateworks Australia), Sarbojit Pal (CEM), Evi Petavratzi (British Geological Survey), Julia Poliscanova (Transport & Environment), Sture Portvik (City of Oslo), Michael Rex (EE Energy Engineers), Sandra Roling (The Climate Group), Gen Saito (Nissan), Jon Salkeld (BP), Raphael Sauter (European Commission), Alex Shiao (Toray Industries, Inc. Battery Separator Film Dept.), Naotaka Shibata (TEPCO CHAdeMO promotion), Somnath Sinha (ExxonMobil), Fabrice Stassin (EMIRI), Jon Stenning (Cambridge Econometrics), Marco Tepper (BSW Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft e.V.), Charlie Webb (Morgan Stanley), Harm Weken (FIER), Mark Wenzel (California), Martina Wikström (Swedish Energy Agency), Akira Yabe (New Energy & Industrial Technology Development Organization), Kazuhiro Yamada (Toray Industries), Xiaowen Yue (PetroChina) and Victor Zúñiga (Mexicos Ministry of Energy). IEA reviewers included Dave Turk, Cecilia Tam, Laura Cozzi, Timur Gül, Apostolos Petropoulos, Paul Hugues, Simon Bennett, Sarbojit Pal, Rebecca Gaghen and Laszlo Varro. The report was edited by Debra Justus. The development of this report was facilitated by country contributions to the IEA for the co-ordination of the Electric Vehicles Initiative. © OECD/IEA 2018 Global EV Outlook 2018 Towards cross-modal electrification Page | 5 Table of Contents Executive summary . 9 1. Introduction . 15 Electric Vehicles Initiative . 15 The EV3030 campaign . 16 Content and scope . 16 2. Vehicles . 19 Cars and light commercial vehicles . 19 Stock. 19 Sales and market shares . 20 Market drivers . 22 Key policy updates . 23 Two- and three-wheelers . 27 Low-speed electric vehicles . 29 Medium- and heavy-duty road electric vehicles . 29 EV deployment targets . 33 ICE vehicle bans and access restrictions . 35 Increasing relevance of electrification in OEM strategies . 37 3. Electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) . 41 Charging standards . 41 Current status . 41 Recent developments . 43 Use of standards across different modes . 43 EVSE development and availability . 44 Private chargers . 45 Publicly accessible chargers . 46 Policy support: Key updates . 47 National and supra-national measures . 47 Local policies . 51 Initiatives from private sector stakeholders. 53 4. Energy demand and emissions . 55 Current impact of EVs on energy demand . 55 Energy demand and change in oil demand . 55 Emissions . 58 Greenhouse gases . 58 Local air pollutants . 59 5. Batteries . 61 Current status . 61 Global EV Outlook 2018 © OECD/IEA 2018 Towards cross-modal electrification Page | 6 Cost and performance drivers . 62 Battery chemistry. 62 Manufacturing capacity . 63 Battery size . 64 Charging speed . 64 Technology development prospects . 65 Cost estimates . 66 Light-duty vehicles . 66 Other transport modes . 67 Implications of battery technology developments for EV uptake . 68 LDVs . 68 Two-wheel vehicles. 72 Urban buses . 73 Trucks . 74 6. Outlook to 2030 . 77 Definition of the scenarios . 77 Electric vehicles . 77 Global results . 77 Regional insights . 82 Battery capacity . 85 Material demand . 86 Nickel . 87 Cobalt and lithium .