全球宏观视野下的朝鲜经济基本面.pdf
H e ad e rT ab le _ U s e r 1139 43 9906 1259 93 9731 1376 69 8287 H e ad e rT ab le _ St o ck 股票代码 投资评级 评级变化 行业 c o d e H e ad e rT ab le _ E x ce l H e a d e r T a b l e _ S t a t e m e n t C o m p a n y T a b l e _ T i t l e Table_Summary 90 9 9 70 Table_ReportDate 20 1 8 09 30 Table_Autho r 021- 6 3 3 2 5 8 8 8 * 7 5 9 0 s u n ji n x ia orient s e c . c o m. c n S 0 8 6 0 5 1 5 0 7 0 0 0 1 021- 6 3 3 2 5 8 8 8 * 3 2 6 7 w a n g z h o n g y a o 1 o rien t s e c . c o m. c n S 0 8 6 0 5 1 8 0 5 0 0 0 Table_Contacter 021- 6 3 3 2 5 8 8 8- 3 0 4 6 c a o ji n g n a n o r ien ts e c . c o m. c n Table_Report A 2 0 1 8- 09- 29 2 0 1 8- 09- 29 2 0 1 8- 09- 29 2 0 1 8- 09- 29 L GB T 2 0 1 8- 09- 28 2 0 1 8- 09- 28 2 90 9 9 70 1980 70% 90 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1995 100 90 90 90 3 1 GDP Wind GDP 2% 20% GDP 2 Wind 1 50 2 60 3 70 4 80 60 37% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 GDP GDP % 21.7% 20.6% 31.1% 12.6% 5.2% 8.8% 4 1 GDP % 2007 2008 2009 2010 201 1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 21.2 21.6 20.9 20.8 23.1 23.4 22.4 21.8 21.6 21.7 2.1 & 31.3 34.6 34.8 36.3 36.5 35.9 35.7 34.4 32.7 33.2 32.1 1 1.4 12.1 12.7 14.4 14.6 14.0 13.6 13.1 12.2 12.6 20.0 22.5 22.1 21.9 21.9 21.9 22.1 21.3 20.4 20.6 6.5 6.7 7.0 6.6 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.9 13.5 15.8 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.2 15.4 14.4 13.4 13.7 4.6 3.4 4.1 3.9 3.1 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.5 5.2 2 8.8 8.3 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.8 8.2 9.0 8.8 4.98 34.1 32.2 32.1 31.0 29.4 29.4 30.0 31.3 32.2 31.1 58.8 GDP 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 据来源 ：韩国 央 行（韩国 数据为2018Q1 ） 、东 方证券 研 究所 2000 WTO 90 3 2000 Wind GDP 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 0 50 100 150 200 250 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 : : 5 2000 2.2 2005 140 2010 4 5 2000 Wind 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 朝鲜官方汇率 美元/ 朝鲜元 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 6 2000 30% 20% 7% 5.8% 5% 4.6% 3.6% 3% 90% 6 9 4.3% 2. 1 % 1.4% 9 0.8% 1. 6% 1.4% KOTRA 2017 1 2 3 4 13 7 8 0 200 400 600 800 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
