以行业产能变化规律推演猪周期.pdf
<p>Table_MainInfo Table_Title / Table_Summary 10-1112009-20132006-2010 2010-2015/ / / 2 2010-20152019 192020202020 Table_CompanyFinance EPS PE 2017A 2018E 2019E 2017A 2018E 2019E 22.43 1.27 0.92 0.96 17.66 19.20 20.00 21.20 0.77 1.16 1.50 20.16 31.50 21.00 21.20 0.77 1.16 1.37 27.66 18.35 15.47 8.77 0.31 0.43 0.46 28.29 20.62 18.92 Table_Invest Table_PicQuote -25%-17%-9%-1%7%15%2017/92017/102017/112017/122018/12018/22018/32018/42018/52018/62018/72018/8Table_Trend % 1M 3M 12M 0.69% -7.85% -24.92% -1.83% -2.77% -13.78% Table_IndustryMarket 99 7314 5746 24.97 2.04 5293 230 % 46.75 Table_Report 2018-08-19 2018-07-15 2018-07-09 7 2018-07-03 Table_Author S0550515060001 S0550117090057 010-58034581 lijunfengnesc / 2018-09-24 2 / 19Table_PageTop 1. . 3 2. . 3 2.1. .3 2.2. .4 2.3. .4 3. . 5 3.1. .5 3.2. .6 3.2.1. . 6 3.2.2. . 7 3.2.2.1. . 7 3.2.2.2. . 8 3.3. .9 3.3.1. . 9 3.3.2. . 11 3.4. 2010-2015 .12 3.4.1. 2010-2013 . 12 3.4.2. 2013 2014 . 13 3.4.3. 2014 2015 . 13 3.4.4. . 14 4. . 14 4.1. .14 4.2. 2019-2020 .15 4.2.1. 2019 . 15 4.2.2. 2020 . 16 4.2.3. 2019-2020 . 16 3 / 19Table_PageTop 1. 10-11MSY2010-20152019-2020 2020 2. 2018 3 530%CPI2.1. 1 1 4 / 19Table_PageTop 2.2. 062006-2010 , 2010-2015 , 2015- 06(Cobweb model)2 2 tt tt+1 t+1t+22.3. 10-113 5 / 19Table_PageTop 3 2014MSY4 2009 Wind 3. 3.1. 4 4 4 1.5-2 4-4.5 14 10 6 / 19Table_PageTop MSY3.2. 3.2.1. 30%5 Wind 677 / 19Table_PageTop 6 7 Wind Wind 3.2.2. 3.2.2.1. 82010 2014 5 201542010 11.78 / 9.48 /2009 20102010-2014 2010 22,7492009 20,825 9.24% 20102009 3.47% 20102011-2014 20158 / 19Table_PageTop 8 Wind 3.2.2.2. 10-11t t+1 9 2009-20132010-20142009-20139 / 19Table_PageTop 9 Wind 3.3. 3.3.1. 2008 52012 610%10stage1stage2 2010 2015stage1 2011 2016stage210 / 19Table_PageTop 10 Wind 11 2009 -20102014 -201511 Wind 2009 -2013</p>
