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20240811_海通证券_有色金属行业：全球锡库存持续下降锡价或继续走强_25页.pdf

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20240811_海通证券_有色金属行业：全球锡库存持续下降锡价或继续走强_25页.pdf

SAC S0850522120002 SAC S0850520010002 SAC S0850524070008 2024 8 11 96722 8 2-8 9 LME-2.8%+1.4%+2.9%+2.9%SHFE-2.8%-0.5%-1.4%+2.9%8 9 LME 8831/2295/2741/3.12/8 CSPT TC 7 368.3 8 8 8 9 LME-3.9%SHFE-6.9%7 8 2-8 9 LME-2.1%-0.6%-0.3%-2.2%SMM 7 64960 1.94%SMM 8 63110 2.8%2024 7 3.23 8.3%SMM 8 33600 4%9 8 9 2427.35/27.58/-1.72%-4.75%560.94/7.09/-1.79%-4.78%CME Fedwatch 9 25BP 51.5%26.0%50BP 48.5%74.0%7 ISM PMI 51.4 48.8 0.2%8 2-8 9+0.5%0.0%2 0YAZuNrMoNrQrPoNtOpQmN7N8Q9PnPoOsQsOfQnNvNeRmNqM6MpOqOvPmMxOxNsOrQ3 Wind 2024/8/2 2024/8/9 LME/9087 8831-2.8%LME/2263 2295 1.4%LME/2662 2741 2.9%LME/2035 2040 0.2%LME/3.03 3.12 2.9%SHFE/7.37 7.17-2.8%SHFE/1.92 1.91-0.5%SHFE/2.29 2.26-1.4%SHFE/1.82 1.79-1.4%SHFE/25.00 25.73 2.9%A00/1.90 1.90 0.3%/3786.00 3786.00 0.0%/8.18 8.00-2.1%/7.83 7.58-3.2%/7.75 7.71-0.6%LME/1.64 1.63-0.3%SHFE/13.10 13.09-0.1%/3.14 3.14 0.0%/1005.00 1015.00 1.0%/18.30 17.90-2.2%MB/11.83 11.58-2.1%MB/15.33 15.33 0.0%/2469.85 2427.35-1.7%/28.95 27.58-4.7%COMEX/2486.10 2470.60-0.6%COMEX/28.69 27.54-4.0%2024/8/2 2024/8/9/37.23 37.42 0.5%:45%-50%/3615.00 3635.00 0.6%/16.01 16.01 0.0%/0.18 0.18-2.8%/0.53 0.52-1.5%:55%/12.96 13.06 0.8%:50/15200.00 15500.00 2.0%:99.999%/10850.00 11150.00 2.8%99.6%/47.50 47.50 0.0%/1.94 1.95 0.5%:99.99%/10.10 10.10 0.0%:99.995%/2850.00 2875.00 0.9%2024/8/2 2024/8/9 LME 11.01 11.24 2.1%SHFE 1.97 1.86-5.2%LME 24.65 29.64 20.2%SHFE 29.51 28.63-3.0%SHFE 1.93 2.36 22.5%LME 92.56 90.75-2.0%SHFE 27.42 27.86 1.6%LME 23.26 23.99 3.2%SHFE 10.54 9.65-8.5%LME 23.16 21.29-8.1%SHFE 3.45 3.94 14.1%LME 4720 4535-3.9%SHFE 11628 10822-6.9%1.8/5-8/9 2.85%2.8/2-8/9 2.1 LME 2.9%2.2 2.1%2.3 1.7%2.4 3.24H1 70%4.4/OwWFF0h8lYGk342h0UmrPC4iNkD3XJlIbfvIKRvuXIHMqE29HzasZZe7L5XpFjj 5 Wind 2024.8.5-2024.8.9 8/5-8/9 2.85%2024.8.5-2024.8.9 2024.8.5-2024.8.9-8%-6%-4%-2%0%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%-1.67%-2.85%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%A 6 Wind 2024.8.5-2024.8.9 8/5-8/9 27.43%2024.8.5-2024.8.9 2024.8.5-2024.8.9 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%ST*ST-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%Pilbara SQM NEWMONT 1.8/5-8/9 2.85%2.8/2-8/9 2.1 LME 2.9%2.2 2.1%2.3 1.7%2.4 3.24H1 70%4.7 8 Wind LME 2.8%LME 20.2%/LME SHFE 77.27.47.6M M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+8 M+92024/08/02 2024/08/095678960008000100001200022/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07LME/SHFE/02040608022/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07LME SHFE SHFE COMEX 9 Wind LME 1.4%A00/LME SHFE 1.881.901.921.941.961.98M M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+82024/08/02 2024/08/091.41.82.215002500350022/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07LME/SHFE/0408012016022/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07LME SHFE COMEX 200030004000500012322/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07A00/10 Wind LME 2.9%LME 0.2%LME SHFE LME SHFE 1.52.53.520003000400022/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07LME/SHFE/020406022/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07LME SHFE 1.31.41.51.61.71.81.92.02.115002000250022/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07LME/SHFE/01020304022/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07LME SHFE 11 Wind LME 2.9%SHFE 6.9%LME SHFE 24.5025.0025.5026.00M M+1 M+2 M+3 M+42024/08/02 2024/08/09/102030123422/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07LME/SHFE/0400080001200016000200002400022/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07LME SHFE 1.8/5-8/9 2.85%2.8/2-8/9 2.1 LME 2.9%2.2 2.1%2.3 1.7%2.4 3.24H1 70%4.12 13 Wind 2.1%/0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.023/12 24/01 24/02 24/03 24/04 24/05 24/06 24/07 010203040506022/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07 7.07.27.47.67.88.08.28.48.68.89.0M M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+82024/08/09 2024/08/02610141822/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07NCM111 NCM523 NCM622 NCM8114812161020304023/01 23/03 23/05 23/07 23/09 23/11 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07NCM111 NCM523 NCM622 NCM811 14 Wind/LME SHFE LME 0.3%MB 010203002422/08 22/10 22/12 23/02 23/04 23/06 23/08 23/10 23/12 24/02 24/04 24/06 24/08LME/SHFE/0102022/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04LME SHFE 0200400600800100012001400160001234522/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04/010203001020304022/08 22/11 23/02 23/05 23/08 23/11 24/02 24/05/MB/MB/12.913.013.013.113.113.213.213.313.313.4M M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+8 M+92024/08/02 2024/08/09 1.8/5-8/9 2.85%2.8/2-8/9 2.1 LME 2.9%2.2 2.1%2.3 1.7%2.4 3.24H1 70%4.15 16 Wind CPI%COMEX SHFE 1.72%350400450500550600150017001900210023002500270022/06 22/09 22/12 23/03 23/06 23/09 23/12 24/03 24/06COMEX/SHFE/3500450055006500750085009500152025303522/06 22/09 22/12 23/03 23/06 23/09 23/12 24/03 24/06COMEX/SHFE/0123456024681022/08 23/02 23/08 24/02 CPI 80901001101201600170018001900200021002200230024002500260022/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07/17 Wind 89.71 SPDR iShares ETF%34566070809010022/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07/-3-2-10122/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07 10Y-2Y 10Y-3M 01002003004005006007008009000123456789102002 2007 2012 2017 2022:01002003004005006008001000120022/08 23/02 23/08 24/02SPDR ETF iShares ETF 1.8/5-8/9 2.85%2.8/2-8/9 2.1 LME 2.9%2.2 2.1%2.3 1.7%2.4 3.24H1 70%4.18 19 Wind/355575950.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.622/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07/567891010002000300040005000600022/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07:45%-50%/910111213141516800090001000011000120001300014000150001600022/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07:5 0/:5 5%/1800200022002400455565758522/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07 99.6%/02401222/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07 10001400180022002600300034003456789101122/07 23/01 23/07 24/01 24/07:9 9.9 9%/:9 9.9 9 5%/1.8/5-8/9 2.85%2.8/2-8/9 2.1 LME 2.9%2.2 2.1%2.3 1.7%2.4 3.24H1 70%4.20 21:2024 7:2024:2024:2024 24H1 70%2024-8-6 2024 7 7 11.97 83.50 7 12.47 83.22 7 0.13 1.09 7 0.11 0.92 2024-8-6 2024 18.14 5.23%1.12 29.38%1.11 70.10%2024-8-10 2024 17.62 37.00%12.97 35.99%12.78 36.10%2024-8-10 2024 18.51 29.54%3411.33 2910.72 1.8/5-8/9 2.85%2.8/2-8/9 2.1 LME 2.9%2.2 2.1%2.3 1.7%2.4 3.24H1 70%4.22 23 SAC S0850522120002 021-23219406 Email SAC S0850520010002 021-23154394 Email 24 SAC S0850524070008 021-23219383 Email 021-23185845 Email:Tel:(021)23185638 Email:1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%25

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