20240718_海通证券_保险行业养老金融保险篇：强化产品和服务供给打造“保险+养老”综合生态_37页.pdf
Table_MainInfo/2024 07 18 Table_InvestInfo Table_QuoteInfo-21.17%-14.25%-7.34%-0.42%6.49%13.41%2023/7 2023/10 2024/1 2024/4 Table_ReportInfo 5 2024.06.26 2024.07.07 5 2024.06.16 Table_AuthorInfo:Tel:(010)50949926 Email:S0850515040002:Tel:(010)56760090 Email:S0850522030003:Tel:010-56760090 Email:S0850523070002+Table_Summary 1 1.30 1.5 2023 65 2.2 15.4%14%2 57%2023 76%2035 2023 41%2.9%3 2012 2019 2022 2011 2060 200-400 1 2 2022 11 36 5000 762 82 11%3 2024 1 6 1 2023 74 106 2023 59 37.4 79 1+2 3 2022 90/7/3 2022 9 2023 12 31 54 8 1 2 3 2 1.7 1.1.7 1.2.8 1.2.1.8 1.2.2.9 1.2.3.10 1.2.4.13 1.2.5.14 1.3 90/7/3.15 2.17 2.1.17 2.1.1.18 2.1.2 1.2 19 2.1.3 1.2/3%.19 2.1.4.20 2.1.5.20 2.2.21 2.2.1.21 2.2.2 6.23 2.2.3.24 2.2.4 25 2.2.5.26 3.+.27 3.1.27 3.2.27 3.3.28 3.4.29 ZXFUxOmRsRpOsMsRsPrOpObR9RbRoMnNpNmQiNrRrOiNoPzQ7NoOzRvPsPnNNZmQtP 3 3.4.1 29 3.4.2“+”.32 3.4.3.33 3.4.4“+”.34 3.4.5.35 4 1 1988%.7 2 30.7 3 65.8 4 2021 78.2.8 5 15-64.8 6 2022 OECD GDP%.9 7 OECD GDP%.9 8.10 9 2023.10 10.10 11.11 12.11 13.12 14.12 15.12 16.13 17.13 18 2023.14 19 2023.14 20.16 21.16 22.20 23.23 24.24 25.25 26.27 27.30 28 1+N.31 29 13.32 30.33 bMhxP6H52jfW+uRjoUkhR0nPyPSCGvG90wyKf2tEx5vrMl3A34Hv698m1NfXnaja 5 31.34 32“+”.34 33.35 34.36 6 1“”.15 2.17 3.18 4.20 5.21 6.22 7.22 8.25 9.26 10.28 11.29 12.31 13.35 7 1.1.1 1988 1952-1970 3%1962-1970 3.7%2400 1971 1985-1991 2.2%2017 1723 2016 63 1.24%5.2bps 2021 5 2023 902 0.64%2022 956 0.68%1.30 1.5 1.5 33-39 2022 1 1988%0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%4.50%5.00%195219561960196419681972197619801984198819921996200020042008201220162020 wind 2 30 05001000150020002500300035001949195319571961196519691973197719811985198919931997200120052009201320172021 1962-1970 54-62 1985-1991 33-39 65 65 2023 14.1 65 2.2 15.4%2021 14%1962-1970 54-62 3-11 65 65 2019 2060 65 3.98 29.83%8 3 65 4.40%6.40%15.40%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%195319571961196519691973197719811985198919931997200120052009201320172021 wind 4 2021 78.2 67.8 68.6 71.4 73.0 74.8 76.3 76.5 76.7 77.0 77.3 77.9 78.2 626466687072747678801982 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 wind 2013 16-59 2023 15-59 8.82 2013 10.06 0.43%62.5%65 2022 21.8%5 15-64 21.80%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%02000040000600008000010000012000015-64%21 1.2 1.2.1 GDP 2.4%OECD OECD 2022 51 OECD 7 GDP 100%192%137.5 OECD 86.7%GDP 2.4%OECD 9 6 2022 OECD GDP%192186153152151138 13198856159 58403632 32 3027242117 1614 13 12 11 11 9 9 8 7 7 7 64 3 2050100150200250 OECD 7 OECD GDP%78.223.910.72.41.70.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.0 OECD 1.2.2 10 8 2023 7.78 5.75 3.19 2.56 1506 1000 400 106 56.9%42.0%1.1%2024 1 6 1000 400 106 9 2023 6.31%58.39%35.30%wind 10 56.88%42.02%1.10%2023 2024 1.2.3 1 2%2023 10.6 76%5.21 5.45 2023 1.3%2 2011 2020 11 2023 11%3 11 20137 21891 23550 35984 61573 78796 81968 84231 85833 88777 91548 94293 96754 99865 102872 105307 106643 9%8%53%71%28%4%3%2%3%3%3%3%3%3%2%1.3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0200004000060000800001000001200002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%wind 12-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%01000020000300004000050000600007000080000900002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%wind 2012 2020 18.1 2021 2019-2050 2027 6.99 2035 12 13-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%01000020000300004000050000600007000080000%14/2000 70%40%70%70%15 13 1.2.4 1 2007 2023 3.2 14.2 929 3144 2014 2017 0.3%2007 2023 1519 3.2 21%2012 2012 35%2023 11%2019 2020 22%25%2023 41%2.9%2004 20 16 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.0 2.2 2.4 3.6 6.2 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.7%13.6%13.2%18.1%17.1%11.3%11.5%1.0%0.4%0.3%2.4%6.7%6.7%5.8%4.7%4.5%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%0246810122007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%17 1519 1911 2533 2809 3570 4821 6035 7689 9526 11075 12880 14770 17985 22497 26406 28718 31874 26%33%11%27%35%25%27%24%16%16%15%22%25%17%9%11%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%050001000015000200002500030000350002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%2 14 2023 11450 161 1338 67 1.9 18 18 2023 02004006008001000120014001600 19 2023 02004006008001000120014001600 2014 10 2016 2019 2 2023 2.56 1.2.5 1 2 3 15 OECD 1 65 7%401K IRA 2 65 14%3 65 20%1-2020 11 20 5-10 8-10 2024 1 1 6 1 2 11 10 51 47 1000 3 4 5 20 400 4 2023 74 106 8-10 10%7 10 1.3 90/7/3 2022 2022 38.7 829.4 1.65%2012 2012 4.4 2018 2.9 2019 2022 2011 2013 2015 2015 30 2015 16 30 2020 35 40 20 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.2 3.3 2.82.9 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.1 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.02008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 21 11.0 12.1 15.8 16.7 17.6 17.8 20.0 21.5 24.4 27.2 30.3 31.6 30.9 29.1 30.5 10%31%6%5%1%12%8%14%11%11%4%-2%-6%5%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%051015202530352005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019%200-400 2019 2060 65 3.98 2013 2020 35-40 2019 5-10 2060 3.98 2060 200-400 100 30 10 2009 2020 4 5 20 40 9073 2021 4 8 9073 90%7%17 3%2.50 1 2 2/2022 11/1.2/2013 5 2018 2021 5 60/2023 1/60 10 18 2018 2/-2022 7 5/10/15/20 5 2021 9-10 2014 7 45 2018-2.1 18 2.1.1 2022 4 2022 4 21 1 2022 9 26 7.5%3%2022 11 2022 11 4 2022 11 17 36 2023 8 2024 1 3 2022.04 12000 1 2022.09/7.5%3%2022.11 12000 2022.11 2022 1 1 2022 1 1 2022.11 2022.11 1 5 2 4 5000 2 2022.11 2022.11 2023.8 2024.1/2024 1 19 2.1.2 1.2 1.2 12000 12333 APP 12000 4 5000 2 1 2 2.1.3 1.2/3%1.2/3%2022 2022 1 1 12000/20 3%4 3.6 360 3.6-4.8 360-1200 4.8-14.4 1200 14.4-15.6 1200-2400 15.6-30 2400 30-31.2 2400-3000 31.2-42 3000 42-43.2 3000-3600 43.2-66 3600 66-67.2 3600-4200 67.2-96 4200 96-97.2 4200-5400 97.2 5400 2.1.4 762 2024 6 8 762 192 82 23 465 22,465,61%,23,3%,192,25%,82,11%2.1.5 21 5000 1 2023 3038 900 31.37%182 2022 2 2023 12 29 5000 2023 68%2023 1 35 45 50%30 40 50%2.2 2.2.1 5 2022 11 22 1 2 5 3 24 82 82 25 24 10 5 25 24 17 10 4 2 22 6 10 3 7 2 6 2 6 2 5 2 5 2 5 2 4 1 4 1 4 1 3 1 3 1 1 30 64 2/3 7 3.0 28-69 28-70 18-60 18-55 0-75 3/5/10/15/25/30 3/5/10/15/20/30/6/10/20/54/59/64/5/6/10/20/54/59/64 3/5/10 106 100 70/75/80/85 40 50/55/60/65 15/20 60-100 55/60/65/70 60/70/80 50/55/60/65 20/-/1 2 10/15/20 max 1 2 10/15/20 50%5-9 12%3 36%5 60%10/15/20/30 100%/10 40%3 120%5 200%10 500%15/Max 23 Max 1000%20 1500%30 2500%/*10%/-/200%-Max Max Max Max*160%/140%/120%1 18 Max 2 18 Max*120%/140%/160%3 Max*120%/140%/160*(1+3.0%)(n-1)2.2.2 6 1 2020 2021 712 620 2.14%1.87%23 710 7126202.29%2.14%1.87%0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%01002003004005006007008002019 2020 2021%2 24 3 13 2018 2022 788 4074 51%2022 24 0100020003000400050006000700080002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 13 2024 1 6 1 2.2.3 2018 4 2018 5 1 2020 1 23 13 2018 5 5 23 2019 3 2019 2023 6600 12%1 2 2018 10 3 6%1000 25 25 3775 75 75 7566103%0%0%0%-12%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%010203040506070802018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%2018-2023 2023 9 2023 2023 9 1 2.2.4 2021 6 6 2022 3 2023 10 25 8 60+10 5 6 10 75%10 90%26 0 2020 63 106 2021 6 2023 1 42.7 37.4 6 1.7 2023 10 2024 1 74 106 8 4000 2.2.5 2022 12 2023 1 1 1 4 2 10 2024 1 59 37.4 79 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 18 9 23 11 40 6 36 10 3%27 3.+3.1+26 3.2 2007.03-2012.05 2012.06-2015.05 2015.06 2007.03-2012.05 2009 11 2010 3 2010 12 2012 4 5 2012.06-2015.05 28 2012 6 9 170 2013 7 10 AAC+CCRC 2014 10 2014 2013 5 11 163 2015.06-2020 2015 7 22 2016 12 2 7 2016 2020 5 9 2021 5 18 CCRC 2020 9073 90%7%3%2023 5 20 3+2+X+3.3 1 2+3 10 2012 35 476 8.3 5.5 4400 2012 29 2015 7 2014+2014 CCRC 2017 2023 2024 2018 13-15 13 3 3000 20/11 1-6#2022 6 30 3.4 3.4.1 2010 3 2012 4 2015 6 35 21 30 35 476 8.3 5.5 4400 2018 20 2023 56 2023 12.6 2022-2023 27 0.292.49-0.582.7816.3112.57-1001020304050602018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018-2021 2022-2023 6 31 28 1+N 活力生活 探索新世界 畅享养老新生活专业护理 科学分级评估 提供个性化照护方案记忆照护 提供“家的方向”记忆照护服务 延缓长辈记忆衰退康复医院 一个社区、一家医院 为居民健康保驾护航生命关怀 让生命的谢幕 有尊严、无遗憾 12 2015 6 3000 320 2025 1550 2020 7 900 310 2022 3 2150 500 2023 11 3600 150 2021 12 1200 390 2022 3 1100 480 2016 7 18 2100 440 2019 11 3 1600 310 570 2020 10 400 80 2023 5 1300 630 2023 7 2200 490 2023 9-2023 11 850 50 2023 7 1350 2024 1300 2024 2023 9 2018 3 3 2050 240 32 2023 9 1350 360 2017 1 18 1530 510 2021 2 101 343 2022 9 1950 410 2023 8 1300 370 2020 11 850 310 3.4.2+CCRC 2021 6 2024 2 29 13 2023 33 30 2023 1 2 3 3.4.3 2022 9 7*24 10+7 24 2023 12 31 54 8 2023 12 31 4 2023 2 2023 7 34 31 2023 1 2 3 3.4.4+170 14 132.3 15800 5000 8200 8 2030 1.05 32+2019 35 33 13 2020 12 2021 CCRC 26.7 2021 2022 CCRC 19.1 2021 2023 13.3 2021 2022 2.7 2021 2023 11.7 2020 2021-5.7 2021 2022 1.7 2021 2023 12 11.7 1 2 3 3.4.5 36 26 CCRC 40 3500 CCRC ABC 18.9 38.4 2019 11 2020 12 2023+50 2017 2021 12 2023+50 22 40 34 1 2 3 37 Table_Analysts Table_Reports,1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%
