20240712_国金证券_证券行业2024中期策略：除旧布新蓄势待发_34页.pdf
S1130524040001 S11305240400042024/7/121 2/3 ETF 24H1A IPO-85%-69%PE+3.15 24H2 20YDWzQmRnOpOtNnOrMtMqR9P8Q8OtRrRmOtPfQnNsNjMnMzQaQpPyQwMtOmPMYsQoP01020330405 4l9aQ7nELPBusE6c8ozz33knPyPSCGvG90wyKf2tEx5uWJJHAxhx6a4/grPmVqbbo+6 30-13.4%-5.4%5 wind 24H1 24H1-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%A()-40-30-20-100102030 0.00.51.01.52.02.5PB AVG 1STDV-1STDV PB +24Q1 IPO 24Q1 24Q1/1058/294-22%/-32%ROE 4.7%2.6pct/-9.7%/-35.9%/-3.2%/-35.7%/-32.6%roe6 wind 430 390 281 186 294 0100200300400500Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42023 2024 23Q1VS24Q1 7.5%4.3%7.0%8.3%9.5%5.7%5.4%4.7%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24Q1ROE-10%-36%-3%-36%-33%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%0100200300400500600 23Q1 24Q1 yoy(24Q1 33%32%24Q1 37%24Q1 21-23/98%23/23/60%24Q1 2.05%1.37pct 23Q1+85.5%/+41.1%/+25.2%7 wind 24Q1 23Q1 24Q1 0.7 1.3 85.5%2.2 3.6 64.3%5.6 7.8 41.1%1.8 2.2 25.2%2.2 2.6 21.2%2.3 2.3 1.8%1.4 1.4 1.6%23.4%32.7%26.4%37.1%33.0%31.8%19.6%32.6%37.3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24Q1 23 30.3+2.1%22 2023/24Q1 2456/534+4.4%/-13.4%2023/24Q1 1636/356+2.2%/-21.8%22 2023/24Q1 54.5/11.7-2.1%/-23.4%2022 2022 24Q1 2023 25.9%24Q1 27.7%8 wind-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%010203040506070802017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24Q1 31.7%21.9%26.5%28.1%29.9%26.0%25.9%27.7%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24Q1 9=+24Q1-7.7%2023 7 7 1 2 3 A 10 wind-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%020406080100 024681012141618200246810121416182019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-05(05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0002019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-05 ETF/11 AUM+2021Q1 16%2023Q4 28%ETF ETF 12 16%17%15%15%19%19%20%22%22%23%26%28%23%23%25%26%25%25%25%26%26%26%25%24%61%59%59%59%55%55%54%51%51%50%48%46%0%0%0%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%ETF ETF ETF A 3 IPO 24H1A IPO-85%-69%24H1-3.2%wind 13-80.0%-70.0%-60.0%-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%020040060080010001200140016001800IPO-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%02000400060008000100001200014000160002023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-06 PE+2014 2023 wind 14 2014-2023 7%5%4%15%4%5%17%18%25%27%4%7%8%7%9%13%20%18%14%16%3%4%3%3%3%11%5%4%6%7%3%4%6%6%10%15%13%16%15%10%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/35.0%13.8%12.7%11.7%7.5%5.7%5.1%3.2%2.2%2.0%1.2%14.2%20.2%7.8%6.8%16.4%7.3%8.2%10.0%1.2%4.4%3.7%wind 15 21 2023/24Q1 4.01X 3.96X 2021 4 2020 3.25 3.35 3.43 3.63 3.82 4.01 3.90 4.01 3.96 1.44 1.48 1.83 2.06 2.14 2.33 2.34 2.53 2.53 1.11 1.27 0.98 0.88 0.94 0.90 0.74 0.73 0.66 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.52016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24Q1/11.1%12.1%13.0%10.0%8.9%8.6%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023(16 43/2020 24/03 45.0%52.9%/19.7%/19.0%13.9%/17.4%2020 24/03/21.8%/5.7%27.4%/8.7%47%45%47%48%52%53%20%20%18%15%15%14%18%19%20%19%17%17%7%7%6%7%6%7%1%1%1%1%1%1%7%8%8%9%9%8%0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024/03 24%25%25%25%22%23%24%23%24%22%22%22%13%13%11%10%12%9%24%22%22%23%25%27%8%11%13%15%15%15%7%6%5%5%5%4%0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024/03-wind wind 17/2022 91.1%91.4%2023+14.9%24Q1 2023/24Q1+138%/42%2022-12 2023-12 22-23 22-23 2024-0323-24/03 23-24/03 112355 119748 7393 6.6%120333 584 0.5%21828 20379-1449-6.6%20946 567 2.8%7760 7520-240-3.1%8177 657 8.7%17075 17891 815 4.8%16701-1190-6.7%12440 13454 1014 8.2%12770-683-5.1%4635 4437-199-4.3%3930-507-11.4%55421 63687 8266 14.9%64947 1260 2.0%39076 44040 4963 12.7%44948 909 2.1%921 977 56 6.0%976-1-0.1%12227 14046 1819 14.9%13270-775-5.5%875 2087 1211 138.4%2968 882 42.3%1073 1221 149 13.9%1444 222 18.2%1248 1316 68 5.5%1340 24 1.8%10270 10272 1 0.0%9562-710-6.9%1819 2019Q1 193%2020-2021 240%19 20 20 1 5 2035 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2 6 7 6 19 2024 2020 2022 43%50%2023 65.6%2023-21 1,426 602 454 373 264 257 220 210 204 174-200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 23Q4 22 wind 3%1%ETF ETF 50-150-100-5005010015020Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 24Q2 23 wind,.17%21%15%14%5%5%9%8%17%9%0%5%10%15%20%25%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800()24H2 23H2 23H2 300 11%24H2 24H2 23H2 24H2 23 24Q1 Q2 Q3 24 24Q1/300 24H1-13%/+1%/+16%24-4.4%/+2.8%/+9.6%24Q1 24Q1 32%指数点位2023/3/31 2023/6/30 2023/9/30 2023/12/31 2024/3/31 2024/6/302024/12/31沪深300 指数4051 3842 3690 3431 3537 3462 3000 3500 4000 中债总财 富指数218 222 223 226 231 235 236 237 238 指数涨幅/自 营收 益 率23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 24Q2 24H2沪深300 指数4.6%-5.1%-4.0%-7.0%3.1%-2.1%-13.3%1.1%15.6%中债 总财 富指 数0.7%1.9%0.6%1.4%2.0%1.8%0.4%0.8%1.2%自营 收益 率0.9%0.5%0.3%0.5%0.5%0.7%0.8%1.4%1.9%自营 资产 规模58725 59533 60508 62371 63607 63607 63607 63607 63607 业绩23Q1 23H1 23Q1Q3 2023 24Q1 24H1 2024自营收入495 821 1028 1333 334 812 1340 1674 1987 其他 业务 收入854 1871 2791 3638 724 1586 3092 3092 3092 营业收入（亿元）1349 2692 3819 4971 1058 2391 4433 4767 5079 归母净利（亿元）430 819 1100 1286 294 663 1229 1322 1409 yoy-31.7%-19.1%-4.4%2.8%9.6%24H2 24 24Q1 wind 24 1.-0.8%-0.4%02.70%-3.1%-4.4%10%3.4%-1.0%1 24 24H1 2 22 23 24Q1 25 3.15/1/2024/4 A 4 26 2024/5 A 46 100.00%2/2022/12 5 2023/12 2024/3 2023 3/2024/3 5 19.15%5 2024/5 7.42%4/2022/5 17.26 7.44 2023/9 2023/12 30 2024/1 2024 1 5/2024/6 26 2020 70%2023 CR10 60%1+12?1 2 3 272829 24 5243 yoy+1%1394 yoy+8%roe5.3%ADT-5%-71%+5%-6%+4%+5%2.75%累计 2021A 2022A 2023A 24Q1 24H1 24Q1-3 2024E营 业 收 入（亿元）6417 4905 4971 1058 2391 3748 5027yoy-24%1%-22%-11%-2%1%归 母 净 利（亿元）1918 1273 1286 294 663 1039 1394yoy-34%1%-32%-19%-5%8%经纪 1395 1143 1006 229 467 732 927yoy-18%-12%-10%-11%-5%-8%投行 627 582 456 67 131 221 313yoy-7%-22%-36%-45%-37%-31%505 469 462 109 216 322 425yoy-7%-2%-3%-6%-7%-8%606 579 437 71 203 301 396yoy-7%-25%-36%-14%-12%-9%1669 778 1333 334 812 1292 1784yoy-53%71%-33%-1%26%34%30 3.15 3132 C3(C333
