20240711_国盛证券_农林牧渔行业2024年度中期策略：右侧价格兑现板块多元配置_20页.pdf
|2024 07 11 2024 2024 18.44/kg 29.6%2023 2023 11 2023 12 2024 1 12%2024 9-11 9-11 2022 2023 2023 29.8%28.2%42.1%2024 1-5 59.3%24.0%16.7%2024 4 3678.20 5.3%1 2024 2024 2 2024 2021-2023 2024Q4 S0680523070007 S0680523070008 S0680524040001 1 6 7 2024-07-07 2 2024-06-30 3 2024-06-23-32%-16%0%16%2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 300 2024 07 11 P.2.4.4.6.9.13.13.14 2024.17.19.19 1 2024 2023 2.4 2 2024 2.4 3.4 4 2024.5 5 10.5 6.5 7.6 8 10.6 9 10.6 10.7 11.7 12.7 13.7 14 2024 5.7 15 2024.7 16 2023.8 17 2024 1-5.8 18 5.8 19.9 20 2024 4.9 21.9 22 2024/25.10 23 2024/25.10 24 2024/25.10 25 2024/25.10 26 6 22 10.11 27 2024/25.11 28 2024/25.11 29 2024/25.12 30 2024/25.12 31.12 WUBYxOsPnOoPrPmPnQqPnM7NdN8OsQqQoMqMiNqQsNkPpOzQ7NqQvNuOtOsOuOsQmM 2024 07 11 P.3 32.13 33 2407.13 34 2409.13 35.14 36 2023.14 37 2023.14 38 2023 6.6%.15 39 2023.15 40.15 41 2024 5.15 42 2024.16 43 5.16 44.16 45.16 46.17 47.17 48.17 49.17 50.18 51.18 52%.18 53%.18 2024 07 11 P.4 2024 18.44/kg 29.6%1 2024 2023 2 iFind 2 2-5 6.9%4.6%10.5%5.0%1 30%2-5 9878 6.8%2023 10 4 2023 10 2024 3 4.9%2023 12 2024 5 7.0%2 2024 2 3 iFind 5 6 19/38.7127.6618.4410152025303540451 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53/kg 2019 2022 2023 20240500100015002000250030003500400045001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2024 2020 2021 2022 20238.0%9.1%5.9%-4.90%-6.50%-7%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%2023.1-2 2023.1-6 2023.4-9 2023.10-2024.32023.11-2024.42023.12-2024.5+1Pcqjb1WwhkYmXjodD280nPyPSCGvG90wyKf2tEx5ucuYVmEwXNrMFLV4c8snpA 2024 07 11 P.5 6 23.6%27%-29%4 2024 iFind 2023 6 10 9.6%23 10 3.4%3 5 20 7.3%6 91.87kg 3 1.2%21 22 5 10 6 iFind 6 0.1/kg 4 101520253035404550551 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53%2021 2022 2023 20240%2%4%6%8%10%12%2023/6/10 2023/10/10 2024/2/10 2024/6/10 avg.8688909294961 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52kg2020 2021 20222023 2024 2024 07 11 P.6 7 2023 2023 11 2023 12 2024 1 12%2024 9-11 9-11 8 10 9 10 iFind iFind 6 2.1/7.3/9.2/14.7%15.5%15%0.5/-0.3/-1.8/-1.50-1.00-0.500.000.501.001.502.00Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec/2021 2022 2023 2024-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2009-03 2012-06 2015-09 2018-12 2022-03-10-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%05101520253035402009-03 2012-06 2015-09 2018-12 2022-03/kg-10-2024 07 11 P.7 10 11 iFind iFind 12 13 iFind iFind 5 5019.7 2.9%6 65%12pct 14 2024 5 15 2024 iFind 012345671 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52/2020 2021 2022 2023 20245678910111 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52/kg 2020 2021 2022 2023 20248.08.59.09.510.010.511.011.512.012.51 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52/kg 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-4.00-2.000.002.004.00Feb-23 May-23 Aug-23 Nov-23 Feb-24 May-24/:40004200440046004800500052001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2024 2022 2023304050607080901001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52%2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2024 07 11 P.8 2022 2023 2023 29.8%28.2%42.1%2024 1-5 59.3%24.0%16.7%16 2023 17 2024 1-5 6 AA+/308 60/55/30-55/15-20/7 70/2024 6 42.07/5.7%18 5 2024 4 3678.20 5.3%817 2024 4 24%2016 9.6pct 48.3%2016 8.2pct 30%28%42%59%24%17%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.00/2024 07 11 P.9 19 20 2024 4 21 iFind USDA FAS 4 2024/25 2.83 0.2%5.4%83%18.9%71.4%11%1%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%300032003400360038004000420044002014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024.4 YoY0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2024 4 0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/:2024 07 11 P.10 22 2024/25 23 2024/25 USDA USDA 6 24/25 2.97 2.8%1.5%6.7 1.3%441/1.6%3 263 24 2024/25 25 2024/25 iFind iFind 5 5 21 6 27 14 39 6 20 4 11-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%0501001502002503003502019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242024/25 YoY-50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 2019/20 2020/21 2021/222022/23 2023/24 2024/25360.0370.0380.0390.0400.0410.0420.0430.0440.0450.05.25.45.65.86.06.26.46.66.87.015/16 17/18 19/20 21/22 23/24/480-1,118-2,261-1,753-2,150-1,515-1,331-616-263-2,500-2,000-1,500-1,000-50005001,00016/1717/1818/1919/20 20/2121/2222/2323/2424/25 2024 07 11 P.11 26 6 22 10 2024/25 9.3 1.1%10.5%0.4pct 1223 380 500 27 2024/25 28 2024/25 Wind USDA iFind USDA 2024/25 4.2 6.7%31.8%2.9pct 1600 777 100 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%400500600700800900100011/1212/1313/1414/1515/1616/1717/1818/1919/2020/2121/2222/2323/2424/25:2024 07 11 P.12 29 2024/25 30 2024/25 iFind USDA iFind USDA 2024/25 2023 31 USDA 20%22%24%26%28%30%32%34%20025030035040045011/12 14/15 17/18 20/21 23/24:2024 07 11 P.13 2024 3 5 32 Wind 6 07 09 6 09 33 2407 34 2409 Wind Wind 2023 2024 5 0.2%1011121314151617181920-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06/-2500-2000-1500-1000-50005001000150014500150001550016000165001700017500180002024-05 2024-06/2407-07-2000-1500-1000-500050010001500200025003000350016600168001700017200174001760017800180001820018400186002024-05 2024-05 2024-06 2024-06 2024-07/2409-09-2024 07 11 P.14 35 Wind 36 2023 37 2023 iFind Wind Wind iFind 2023 6.6%24Q1-3.4%2023 3.22 6.6%1.5+10.1%3274+2%9510+6.6%2023 2344-4.9%2024 6896-3.4%-50-40-30-20-100102030405060-10-8-6-4-202462009-02 2010-11 2012-08 2014-05 2016-02 2017-11 2019-08 2021-05 2023-02%-567891011-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2023-01 2023-05 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05/-024681012141618-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%2023-01 2023-05 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05/-2024 07 11 P.15 38 2023 6.6%39 2023 1 2023 14975.2 10.1%2022 2023 2023 2024 5 2024 5-7.29%-1.87%40 41 2024 5 2024 5 119.03%-1.87%-7.29%1-5 570.5%-7.30%2 2023 2023 2344.4-7.2%2024/2024 42.3%/28.57%/88.68%/7.94%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%050001000015000200002500030000350002000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 万吨-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%-30.00%-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%02000400060008000100001200014000160002000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 yoy万吨 2024 07 11 P.16 42 2024 43 5 wind 2023 2024 2023Q4/2024Q1-12.03%/-0.99%-63.18%/-33.37%18Q4/19Q1-8.65%/-12%-50.97%/-36.52%2024 44 45 wind wind 0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.002020-01 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01 2024-01/鮰 0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002009-01-162012-03-022015-03-132018-03-232021-04-30()()0.00005.000010.000015.000020.000025.000030.000035.000040.000045.00000200040006000800010000120001400016000180002009-01-16 2012-11-30 2016-09-02 2020-07-10()/kg 2024 07 11 P.17 46 47 wind wind 2024 10 2021-2023 2024Q4 2023 10 17 37 2024 3 19 27 64 37 58%12 19%12 19%3 5%10 16%6 9%5 8%4 6%3 5%2 3%1 2%52%48 49 Wind Wind-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.200.20.40.60.805101520253035402006Q3 2009Q2 2012Q1 2014Q4 2017Q3 2020Q2 2023Q1(/CJ-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%05101520253035402006Q3 2009Q3 2012Q3 2015Q3 2018Q3 2021Q3(/CJ 2024 07 11 P.18 1 5.6%-11.6%5%40%2 5 80%10 6 30 5 50 51 wind 52%53%agbioinvestor agbioinvestor 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2024 07 11 P.19 2024 07 11 P.20 6 A 300 500 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