20240718_华创证券_太阳能行业巴基斯坦光储市场深度研究报告：居民用电成本持续高涨光储市场迎来发展黄金期_24页.pdf
2009 1210 2024 07 18 1 2023 50%20%/4%/1%2 2005 2015 20.84%7%3 2014 448KWh/27 1 Global Solar Atlas 1KW 1990kWh 1990h 41%59%IRENA 2023 1.24GW 0GW 2 2024 1-5 86.8+83%10.4GW+260%2024 1-5 12.5+251%5.0GW+322%3 NEPRA 2020 100%4 Asian-News 5 4-5 1.8/kWh 4-5 6 2030/2047 12.8/26.9GW 2030/2047 1.65/1.07GW S0360522080001 S0360522100003%()38 0.00()8,779.96 1.04()7,138.02 1.08%1M 6M 12M-10.2%-25.7%-48.0%-9.3%-34.1%-38.5%20240708-20240714 2024-07-15 20240701-20240707 2024-07-08 20240624-20240630 5 2GW 2024-06-30-52%-33%-14%4%23/07 23/09 23/12 24/02 24/05 24/072023-07-182024-07-17 300 2009 1210 1 GPD 2 3 4 5 InfoLink Consulting 2024 6 182*182-210mm PERC 0.8/W 2023 57%2024 6 0.36/Wh 44%IMF NEPRA 2020 100%1.8/kWh 4-5 ZXDWzQrMtQqRpRtQnQpQnM6M9RaQsQmMmOqMeRoOqPlOrQyRbRqQvNvPrMpPNZmNoR 2009 1210 3.6 GDP.6 1 GDP.6 2 2 6.4.7 3 20%.7 4.8.8 1.8 2 50%.9 3.10 4.11.13.13 1.13 2.13 3.14.15 1.15 2.17 3.17.18 1+.18 2 4-5.20 3 2030/2047 12.8/26.9GW.20.21.21 2009 1210 4 1 GDP 43.6 2 GDP.6 3 GDP.6 4 2023 2.40.7 5 2017 6.39.7 6 2023 40%.7 7 2018 21.9%.7 8(CPI).8 9 2024 6 20.5%.8 10 2020-2021 1890.9 15.1%.8 11 2023.9 12.9 13 2022-2023 50%.9 14.10 15 kWh/.10 16 2017.10 17.11 18.11 19.12 20.12 21.13 22.13 23 kWh.13 24 2023 1244MW+15%.14 25 2022 166MW-26%.14 26 2023 630MW.14 27 2022 100MW.14 28 24 1-5 86.8+83%.15 29 24 1-5 10.4GW+260%.15 30 24 1-5 12.5+251%.15 31 24 1-5 5.0GW+322%.15 32 2020 Rs/kWh.16 33 2024 7 Rs/kWh.16 Jo+kdGEyWUHQNB6CNysK10nPyPSCGvG90wyKf2tEx5uU+DY1FOFfcVeNy327LFSi 2009 1210 5 34.17 35.17 36 LCOE.18 37 2023/W.18 38 2023/Wh.18 39+.19 40 Rs.19 41 4-5.20 42.20 43.20 44 2030 16.7%.21 45 2047 16.0%.21 2009 1210 6 GDP 1 GDP GDP IMF 2023 GDP 3382 43 GDP GDP 2000-2023 GDP 5.5%1 GDP 43 Wind GDP GDP 2007 GDP 2007 2023 GDP 1407 157 GDP 2 GDP 3 GDP Wind Wind-4.00-2.000.002.004.006.008.0010.00GDP:IMF:GDP:GDP:(EMDE)0500100015002000250030001980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022:GDP:GDP:-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%:GDP:GDP 2009 1210 7 2 2 6.4 2022 2.36 2023 2.40 1960 2010 1.65%2017 6.39/2023 3763 4 2023 2.40 5 2017 6.39 2017 2.08 1.06 1.01 79.6/260.88/6.39 Wind 3 20%2023 40%2023 38.0%57.3%2003-2004 60%2018 21.9%6 2023 40%7 2018 21.9%iFinD iFinD 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.01960196319661969197219751978198119841987199019931996199920022005200820112014201720202023 102030405060701960196319661969197219751978198119841987199019931996199920022005200820112014201720202023%0102030405060702000 2005 2010 2015 2020%2009 1210 8 4(CPI)Wind 2024 5 CPI 2015-2016=100 254.8+12%-3%2021 2024 6 150 20.5%4 8(CPI)9 2024 6 20.5%Wind trading economics 1 BP 2020 3064 0.3%396 13.6 0.2%12.6 2020-2021 380 1891 83%10 2020-2021 1890.9 15.1%0.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.002008/072009/042010/012010/102011/072012/042013/012013/102014/072015/042016/012016/102017/072018/042019/012019/102020/072021/042022/012022/102023/072024/04 CPI(,2015-2016=100)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%02004006008001000120014001600180020002015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2009 1210 9 2023 50%20%4%1%11 2023 NEPRA 50%2023 1367 2013-2023 3.1%2022-2023 52%26%17%3%1%12 13 2022-2023 50%Wind NEPRA 2 50%2014 448KWh/27 55.6%23.2%7.9%4.0%1.2%0.5%7.7%0200400600800100012001400160019851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017201920212023 52.4%25.6%17.4%3.0%1.0%0.6%2009 1210 10 14 15 kWh/Climate Change Knowledge Portal iFinD 24%9%8%16 3 050010001500200025003000350040004500:51%24%9%8%1%7%2009 1210 11 17 4(Generation Companies,GENCOs)(Independent Power Plants IPPs)(Karachi Electric,KE)National Transmission&Dispatch Company,NTDC KE 10 Distribution Companies DISCOs-FESCO-GEPCO-HEPCO-IEPCO-LEPCO-MEPCO-PEPCO-QEPCO-SEPCO-TEPCO KE(Water and Power Development Authority,WAPDA)(hydel)”2022.70-80 2005 2015 20.84%7%18 2021 2014 2005-2015 2012 4 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%2009 1210 12 IGCEP 2021-2030 19”2022.(2020)2025 20%2030 30%NEPRA 20 2021 Pakistans updated Nationally Determined Contributions 2021 2030 60%2020 National Electricity Policy 2021 2019 Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy 2019,ARE 2019 ARE 2019 AER2019 3.15%2025 20%2030 30%”2022.2009 1210 13 1 Global Solar Atlas 1KW 1990kWh 1990h 41%59%2536.5KWh/36%61%21 22 global solar atlas Solargis 3-5 9-10 23 kWh global solar atlas 2 IRENA 2023 1.24GW 0GW 2022 1.24GW+15.4%166MW 050010001500200025003000-kWh kWh/0204060801001201401601802001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12-2009 1210 14-25.6%24 2023 1244MW+15%25 2022 166MW-26%IRENA IRENA NEPRA 2023 630MW 0MW 2022 630MW+19%100MW 26 2023 630MW 27 2022 100MW NEPRA NEPRA 3 A Sunlife Solar Company Pvt.Ltd 150MW 15 335 IEC 61215 10.1 PCRET 2024 1-5 86.8+83%5 7.8+47%-56%2024 1-5 10.4GW+260%5 0.96GW+164%-55%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%02004006008001000120014002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MW-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0501001502002503003502014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MW 0%5%10%15%20%25%01002003004005006007002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MW 0204060801001202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MW 2009 1210 15 28 24 1-5 86.8+83%29 24 1-5 10.4GW+260%2024 1-5 12.5+251%5 4.6+541%+31%2024 1-5 5.0GW+322%5 1.83GW+604%+31%30 24 1-5 12.5+251%31 24 1-5 5.0GW+322%1 IMF IMF IMF-2-10123456780.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.002019/012019/052019/092020/012020/052020/092021/012021/052021/092022/012022/052022/092023/012023/052023/092024/012024/05-2024681012140.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.502019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/102024/012024/04(GW)-2-101234567890.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.002019/012019/052019/092020/012020/052020/092021/012021/052021/092022/012022/052022/092023/012023/052023/092024/012024/05-1012345670.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.802.002019/012019/052019/092020/012020/052020/092021/012021/052021/092022/012022/052022/092023/012023/052023/092024/012024/05 GW 2009 1210 16 32 2020 Rs/kWh 2020 Rs/2020 RMB/50 2.00 0.09 5kW 0-100 7.36 0.32 101-200 9.68 0.41 201-300 11.77 0.50 301-700 20.82 0.89 700 23.92 1.02 5kW 23.92 1.02 17.60 0.75 25.11 1.08 5kW 20.66 0.88 5kW 24.14 1.03 26.06 1.12 20.09 0.86 22.85 0.98 NEPRA 2024 7 7 10 35.50Rs/kWh 19%2024 7 0-700 38.15Rs/kWh 2020 138%700 48.76Rs/kWh 2020 104%33 2024 7 Rs/kWh 2024 7 Rs/2024 7 RMB/5kW 50-4.54 0.12 51-100-9.06 0.23 01-100 28.28 0.72 101-200 30.65 0.78 01-100 28.56 0.73 101-200 33.48 0.85 201-300 36.83 0.94 301-400 40.07 1.02 401-500 41.35 1.05 2009 1210 17 501-600 42.72 1.09 601-700 44.04 1.12 700 48.76 1.24 5kW 46.71 1.19 40.37 1.03 59.50 1.52 5kW 38.06 0.97 5kW 36.65 0.93 43.93 1.12 33.37 0.85 53.65 1.37 48.61 1.24 NEPRA 2 Asian-News 34 35 3 LCOE IRENA 2010-2022 445$/MWh 2009 1210 18 49$/MWh 89%36 LCOE IRENA 2023 InfoLink Consulting 2024 6 182*182-210mm PERC 0.8/W 2023 57%2024 6 0.36/Wh 44%IRENA 2022 0.715$/W 2024 37 2023/W 38 2023/Wh InfoLink Consulting 1+0.70.91.11.31.51.71.92.12.32020/122021/022021/042021/062021/082021/102021/122022/022022/042022/062022/082022/102022/122023/022023/042023/062023/082023/102023/122024/022024/042024/06 PER 182mm RMB PERC 210mm RMB PERC 182*182-210mm RMB PERC 210mm RMB 0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.902020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/102024/012024/04/Wh 2009 1210 19 17%8.4%39+66kWh 4302 1.7/kWh 2957 69%1345 31%40 Rs KWh 66 40.09 2491.50 TV GST 527 Income tax 336 70.93 extra tax 146 213.18 further tax 117 181.45 N.J 2957.06 146.31 GST ON FPA 13.00 IT ON FPA 9.00 FD ON FPA 1.06 EXTRA TAX ON FPA 3.00 FURTHER TAX ONFPA 3.00 S.TAX ON FPA 3.60 1345.06 4302 2009 1210 20 2 4-5 5kW 10kWh 1/W 1.2/Wh 1/W 25000“+70+1.8/kWh 22%4-5 1.8/kWh 37.5%4-5 41 4-5 5KW 1/W 5000 10KWh 1.2/Wh 12000 5KW 1/W 5000 3000 25000 1.8/kWh+22%IRR 37.5%4-5 NEPRA 42 43 3 2030/2047 12.8/26.9GW 2030/2047 12.8/26.9GW 1.65/1.07GW NEPRA(IGCEP 2047)0123456789101.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 2009 1210 21 2030 12.8GW 2047 26.9GW IRENA 2030/2047 1.65/1.07GW 2023 1.2%4.0%NERPA 2030/2047 16.7%/16.0%13.5%/6.1%44 2030 16.7%45 2047 16.0%2030 MW 23738 31.1%20737 27.1%12793 16.7%10327 13.5%4407 5.8%4389 5.7%76391 100.0%2047 MW 68842 40.9%55836 33.2%26921 16.0%10327 6.1%4407 2.6%1913 1.1%168246 100.0%NEPRA NEPRA 1 2024 1-5 2 2024 5 2023 9 2009 1210 22/2022 5 2 2022 2022 2 2022 1 2 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2009 1210 23 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 24 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
