HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN Table_Reportdate 2023 12 06 table_invest Table_NewTitle Table_Authors S0630523060001 table_stockTrend table_product 1.CMP 2.MCU+loT 3.IGBT 4.5.table_main 90%MEMS CCP ICP ALE 3D NAND 2011-2021 16.39%2022 375.28 2023 500 12 12 160.7/37.65%TrendForce 2023-2027 28nm 16nm 7:3 20%Gartner 2020 Lam Research LRCX(TEL)AMAT 90.24%20%5nm 1 MOCVD LED MEMS CCP 5nm 3D NAND 64 128 2 77.99%ICP 14nm 1 2 3-22%-14%-7%0%8%15%23%22-12 23-03 23-06 23-09:(0727)300 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 2/32 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.6 1.3.8 2.12 2.1.12 2.2.13 3.16 3.1.16 3.2.17 3.3.Lam Research.19 4.22 4.1.22 4.2.25 4.3.27 5.31 XVDWwPtOsRoPoQtQmRsNrQ7NcM9PnPrRsQoNiNrQtRiNnNsN9PmMxOvPtRnNvPoOwP HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 3/32 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.6 6.7 7 ALE.8 8 10nm.9 9.9 10.9 11 2D NAND 3D NAND.9 12 3D NAND.10 13.10 14 3D NAND.10 15 150k/%.11 16.11 17 2014-2021%.12 18 2019-2023%.13 19 2019-2025.13 20 2020-2026%.13 21 2021-2024 2022 6.15 22 2020%.16 23 2018-2023.16 24.17 25 2015.18 26.19 27 2018-2023 Lam Research%.20 28 Lam Research 10%.20 29 2019-2023 Lam Research%.21 30.22 31 2020-2022.23 32 2019-2023H1%.23 33.23 34 2018-2022%.24 35 2018-2022%.24 36 2018-2022%.24 37 2018-2022%.24 38 2018-2023Q3.25 39 2022%.25 40.25 41.26 42 2022.26 43 2019-2023H1%.26 44 2018-2022%.27 45 2018-2022%.27 46 2018-2022%.27 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 4/32 47 2018-2022%.27 48.28 49 2018-2021H1%.29 50 2018-2021H1%.29 51 2018-2021H1%.29 52 2018-2021H1%.30 53 2018-2021H1%.30 54 2018-2021H1%.30 55 2018-2021H1%.30 1.7 2.7 3 ALE.8 4 12.14 5 8.14 6.17 7 2023 H1 3D NAND.18 8 Lam Research.19 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 5/32 1.1.1.1 Integrated Circuit IC 1 2 2 3 4 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 6/32 1.2.1 1 2 Fabless 5 2 90%1 2 3 m MEMS HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 7/32 6 1 3 2/STI CCP ICP 刻蚀方法分类干法刻蚀等离子刻蚀电容性等离子刻蚀（CCP）电感性等离子刻蚀（ICP）反应离子刻蚀（RIE）离子束溅射刻蚀 湿法刻蚀 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 8/32 CCP 3D/ICP STI Ge Strained-Si Pad 4 Atomic Layer Etching ALE ALE 0.4nm ALE FinFET STI FinFET 10nm 7nmFinFET 10 15 5 ALE ALE ALE 7 ALE Physics of Plasma 3 ALE 公司 ALE 设备 技术路线 应用 Lam Research Flex SiO2 Producer Selectra Etch FinFET,3D NAND,DRAM PlasmaPro 100 ALE RF GaN HEMT GSE C200 GaN 1.3.1 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 9/32 7nm 5nm 3nm 7nm 140 28nm 40 2.5 8 10nm 9 2 3D NAND 1 NAND USB 3D NAND 2 3D NAND 64 128 300 3D NAND 3 3D NAND 10 11 2D NAND 3D NAND Lam Research 3 3D NAND 3D NAND 40 1 40 3D NAND High Aspect Ratio,HAR 3D 030609012015018065nm 45nm 28nm 20nm 14nm 10nm 7nm 5nm HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 10/32 12 3D NAND 13 Lam Research Lam Research 14 3D NAND Lam Research 4 3D NAND 3D NAND 150 k/32 128 34.90%48.40%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 11/32 15 150k/%16 3D NAND 3D NAND 34.90%41.00%48.40%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%32L 64L 128L0.040.060.020.040.010.020.040.10.040.060.030.020.040.180.080.10.050.0300.050.10.150.2CMOS沟道孔洞 阶梯 狭缝 接触孔 清理32L 64L 128L HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 12/32 2.2.1.1 AI 5G WSTS 2014 913.75 2021 1925 11.23%2021 34.6%5G 17 2014-2021%WSTS 2 2011-2021 16.39%2022 375.28 2023 500 2023 Gartner 2020-2025 2025 181.85 5.84%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%01,5003,0004,5006,0002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021全球半导体市场销售额(亿美元)中国半导体市场销售额（亿美元）全球市场同比增长率（右轴）中国市场同比增长率（右轴）HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 13/32 18 2019-2023%19 2019-2025 Gartner 2.2.1 2024 2025-2.1%-9.2%Gartner 2026 2022 440 360 20 2020-2026%Gartner IC 2 12 2024 32 22 10 12 24 75%12 160.7 423.3 37.96%8 99.1 155 63.94%12 184.66 184.66246.22375.28498.390%20%40%60%1002003004005006002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 43.5260.4978.483.7679 78.24 82.4765.6876.493.94100.1595.31 93.8499.380501001502002019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E介质刻蚀（亿美元）导体刻蚀（亿美元）341.72509.52649.97605.09592.59538.09553.5941.0%49.1%27.6%6.9%-2.1%-9.2%2.9%-20%0%20%40%60%2003505006508002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E全球晶圆代工行业资本支 出（亿 美元）增长率（右轴）HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 14/32 4 12/4 59.7 23.5 6 0 44.5 3 0 15 3 9 15.5 1 0 8.3 1 0 4 1 2 3.5 1 0 48 1 4 4 2 0 8 2 0 20 1 5 10 1 4 12.5 1 0 12.5 2 5 14 1 0 30 1 2 4 1 2 6 1 3 8 1 4 8 1 0 8 2 0 11-1 3 10 1 5 5 1 0 4 1 5 7 1 0 6 2 20 32 1 4 4 SK 2 20 30 1 2 2-1 2 5 50 160.7 423.3 5 8/6 35.4 60 1 17.8 18 2 13.5 20.2 1 3 5 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 15/32 1 3.5 4 1 3.6 4 1 0 6 1 3 5 1 0.5 3 1 0 0 1 0.5 2 1 1 10.5 1 1.5 1.5 1 3.5 3.5 1 2.3 2.3-1 10 10 22 99.1 155 3 28nm TrendForce 2023-2027 28nm 16nm 3 1 29%2027 33%28nm 21 2021-2024 2022 6 TrendForce 76%77%75%76%24%23%25%24%0%20%40%60%80%100%2021 2022F 2023F 2024F成熟制程（28nm 及以上）先进制程（1Xnm 及以下）HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 16/32 3.3.1.90.24%2020 Lam Research LRCX(TEL)AMAT 46.71%26.57%16.96%1.37%0.89%0.1%20%2022 22 2020%Gartner 23 2018-2023 iFind 46.71%26.57%16.96%3.45%2.53%1.37%1.23%0.89%0.19%0.10%Lam Research（美）东京电子（日）应用材料（美）日立高新（日）细美事（韩）中微公司（中）科磊半导体（美）北方华创（中）爱发科（日）屹唐股份（中）0100200300400500501001502002502018-09-302018-11-302019-01-312019-03-312019-05-312019-07-312019-09-302019-11-302020-01-312020-03-312020-05-312020-07-312020-09-302020-11-302021-01-312021-03-312021-05-312021-07-312021-09-302021-11-302022-01-312022-03-312022-05-312022-07-312022-09-302022-11-302023-01-312023-03-312023-05-312023-07-312023-09-30制造半导体器件或IC 的等 离子体 干法刻 蚀机(84862041):进口数 量:当 月值（台）制造半导体器件或IC 的等 离子体 干法刻 蚀机(84862041):进口均 价:当 月值（右轴，万美元）HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 17/32 3.2.know-how 24 1 2022 Lam Research 16.04 27.71 2022 6.05 9.29 18.45 35.66 2 1 CCP 5nm-3nm ICP ICP 14nm 2022 CCP 2 128 3D NAND 200 TEL 2023 6 400 3D NAND 6 Lam Research ICP 28nm-14nm 14nm-7nm 5nm-3nm-CCP 65nm-14nm 7nm-5nm-3nm-1963 东京电子（TEL）1967 应用材料（AMAT）1975 科磊半导体（KLA）1980泛林（LAM）1993 细美事（SEMES）2001 日立高新（HITACHI）2001 北方华创2004 中微公司 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 18/32 7 2023 H1 3D NAND 3D NAND 236 SK 238 Solidigm 192/218 232 TechInsights 3 2015 2 7nm-5nm 25 2015 Federal Register HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 19/32 3.3.Lam Research 1 Lam Research 1980 1.5m AutoEtch 1997 CVD FPD 1998 Kiyo Flex Syndion 2006 Lam Research 2006 Bullen Semiconductor Silfex,Inc.2008 SEZ AG Lam Research AG 2012 33 Novellus Systems 2017 MEMS Conventor 2022 SEMSYSCO 26 Lam Research 8 Lam Research/RIE Kiyo Versys RIE Flex Vantex TSV DRIE Syndion ECD SABRE CVD ALD ALTUS(PECVD)ALD(HDP-CVD)VECTOR Striker SPEED EOS DV-Prime Da Vinci SP Series Coronus HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 20/32 Lam Research,2 1985 2000 Lam Research 2020 2023 35.13%25.61%2021 51.38 2023 44.62 2023 1.2%27 2018-2023 Lam Research%28 Lam Research 10%iFind 3 2019 70%16.11%21.77%30.70%35.13%31.41%25.61%34.60%22.84%23.81%26.83%23.44%20.38%12.62%16.54%18.98%14.48%17.05%19.96%17.00%20.41%9.50%9.33%9.43%10.09%7.41%7.75%8.09%4.60%6.66%9.55%7.05%6.38%5.85%6.46%7.88%7.77%5.21%3.69%3.07%3.17%4.13%6.65%0%20%40%60%80%100%201820192020202120222023中国 韩国 中国台湾 日本 美国 东南亚 欧洲35.99 46.07 52.59 58.86 80.14 110.77 96.54 100.45 146.26 172.27 174.29 35.0%28.0%14.2%11.9%36.1%38.2%-12.9%4.1%45.6%17.8%1.2%-20%0%20%40%60%20 60 100 140 180 220FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23营业总收入（亿美元）增长率（右轴）HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 21/32 29 2019-2023 Lam Research%4 Lam Research 1 2 3 4 70%58%61%60%42%20%31%32%26%38%10%11%7%14%20%0%20%40%60%80%100%20192020202120222023Memory Foundry Logic/IDM HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 22/32 4.4.1.1 MOCVD 2004 2019 LED MEMS 1 CCP ICP 12 65 nm 5 nm 5 nm 3D NAND 64 128 2 MOCVD LED LED Prismo A7 LED MOCVD Mini-LED MOCVD Prismo UniMax MOCVD LED 30 2 2020 2023 18.05 2022 21.95 2020-2022 295 491 708 2021 66.44%2022 44.20%2023 MOCVD 45 15 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 23/32 31 2020-2022 32 2019-2023H1%iFind 33 3 2018-2022 2022 47.4 52.51%2022 11.7 15.73%2022 4.37 2022 9.19 183.44%2004006008002020 2021 2022生产量（腔）销售量（腔）库存量（腔）5.175.9213.7221.9518.0514.51%131.76%59.99%-17.77%-40%0%40%80%120%160%05101520252019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1合同负债-预收销售商品款（亿元）增速（右轴）HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 24/32 34 2018-2022%35 2018-2022%iFind iFind 4 2018-2022 2022 45.74%2022 2023 12%-13%36 2018-2022%37 2018-2022%iFind iFind 5 MOCVD 2022 31.47 66%MOCVD 7.00 15%16.3919.4722.7331.0847.440.4168.62%18.79%16.74%36.74%52.51%-14.75%-20%0%20%40%60%80%010203040502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3营业收入（亿元）增速（右轴）0.911.894.9210.1111.7 11.6203.33%107.69%160.32%105.49%15.73%-0.85%-20%30%80%130%180%230%04812162018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3归母净利润（亿元）增速（右轴）35.50%34.93%37.67%43.36%45.74%45.83%5.54%9.69%21.66%32.54%24.64%28.67%0%10%20%30%40%50%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3毛利率（%）净利率（%）13.24%10.12%10.43%9.52%8.63%8.36%7.99%5.60%6.73%6.53%4.98%5.07%7.20%12.02%14.56%12.81%12.76%12.42%3%7%11%15%19%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3销售费率（%）管理费率（%）研发费率（%）HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 25/32 38 2018-2023Q3 39 2022%iFind 2019 iFind 5 1 65nm-5nm CCP 5nm 2 64 128 3D NAND 60:1 3 MOCVD LED MOCVD 4.2.1 1 20 2 40 2 ICP 1 2 2005 5.6612.8920.0431.4728.78.324.965.037.004.09 2.414.886.018.93 7.620102030402018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3刻蚀设备（亿元）MOCVD（亿元）其他（亿元）31.47,66%7.00,15%8.93,19%刻蚀设备（亿元）MOCVD（亿元）其他（亿元）HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 26/32 ICP 14nm 2022 CCP 41 2022 3 2022 77.99%2019-2023H1 2023 H1 85.86 2022 19.27%LED 42 2022 43 2019-2023H1%iFind 4 2022 146.9 77.99%4.44%17.56%半导体设备真空设备电子元器件13.81 30.47 50.46 71.98 85.86 120.66%65.61%42.65%19.27%0%40%80%120%160%-20 40 60 80 1002019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1合同负债-预收销售商品款（亿元）增速（右轴）HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 27/32 2022 23.53 118.37%44 2018-2022%45 2018-2022%iFind iFind 5 2018 36%-43%8.5%20.39%46 2018-2022%47 2018-2022%iFind iFind 6 1 200mm 90-40nm 40-14nm 28-14nm LED 2 3 4.3.33.2440.5860.5696.83146.9 145.949.53%22.10%49.23%59.90%51.68%-0.68%-20%0%20%40%60%80%040801201602018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3营业收入（亿元）增速（右轴）2.343.095.3710.7723.5328.8486.05%32.34%73.75%100.66%118.37%22.57%0%40%80%120%0102030402018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3归母净利润（亿元）增速（右轴）36.59%40.53%36.69%39.41%43.83%39.83%8.50%9.11%10.42%12.32%17.30%20.39%5%15%25%35%45%55%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3毛利率（%）净利率（%）5.08%5.87%5.84%5.29%5.46%4.19%15.14%13.75%14.06%12.32%9.68%7.13%10.57%12.93%11.07%13.40%12.56%9.52%2%6%10%14%18%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3销售费率（%）管理费率（%）研发费率（%）HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 28/32 1 2015 2016 3 Mattson Technology,Inc.MTI 2020 2021 IPO 1 Gartner 2020 31.29%Lam Research 2020 31.29%25.90%19.16%11.93%5.28%2020 27 88.89%11 90.91%2 11.50%Gartner 69.72%11.50%48 3 2018-2021 H1 10%5%2020 8 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 29/32 0.10%2007 ParadigmE 2020 Novyka 10nmDRAM 256 3D 49 2018-2021H1%50 2018-2021H1%2 2018-2020 21.12%42.12%51 2018-2021H1%3 2020 23.13 46.96%2021 0.95 2019-2021H1 65100153102453146273145 62.65%9.66%2.45%4.44%1%4%7%10%040801201602002018 2019 2020 2021H1干法去胶 快速热处理干法刻蚀 干法刻蚀占比（右轴）498514884413236264 4824.26%3.31%4.17%1.79%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%040801201602018 2019 2020 2021H1干法去胶 快速热处理干法刻蚀 干法刻蚀占比（右轴）21.12%31.39%42.12%32.30%78.88%68.61%57.88%67.70%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021H1中国大陆 境外 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 30/32 52 2018-2021H1%53 2018-2021H1%4 33%2019-2021H1 6.72%10%54 2018-2021H1%55 2018-2021H1%5 1 IPO 2 90nm-5nm 10nm DRAM 32 128 3D 3 15.1815.7423.1314.173.64%46.96%-38.72%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%101520252018 2019 2020 2021Q1营业收入（亿元）增速（右轴）0.24-0.880.250.95-467.89%-128.09%284.46%-600%-400%-200%0%200%400%-1.00-0.500.000.501.001.502018 2019 2020 2021Q1归母净利润（亿元）增速（右轴）40.09%33.75%32.79%33.96%1.58%-5.60%1.07%6.72%-20.00%0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%2018 2019 2020 2021Q1毛利率 净利率12.48%11.80%9.95%8.13%6.75%6.72%5.60%5.18%16.75%17.75%14.20%12.72%3.00%6.00%9.00%12.00%15.00%18.00%21.00%2018 2019 2020 2021Q1销售费率（%）管理费率（%）研发费率（%）HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 31/32 5.1 2 3 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 32/32 6 300 20%6 300-20%20%6 300 20%6 300 10%6 300-10%10%6 300 10%6 300 15%6 300 5%15%6 300-5%5%6 300 5%15%6 300 15%1928 87 D 15F Http:/Http:/8621 20333275 18221959689 8610 59707105 18221959689 8621 50585608 8610 59707100 200215 100089