20240624_华福证券_农林牧渔行业：猪价阶段性调整整体向上趋势不改_12页.pdf
行业研究 行业定期报告 2024 06 24 1 1 6 21 18.25/-1.83%6 21/382.68/366.56/-30.58/-29.55/2 6 21 13.00+7.08%6 21 16.64%+0.54pct 3 6 14-21 150kg 4.95%+0.11pct 126.29+0.01%6 14-21 90kg 3.89%+0.26pct 1 7 8 6 21 2.30/-1.29%7.17/+2.28%6 21/-0.40/-3.01/-0.03/+0.31/2 24H2+”2022 25%22 5 22 5 23H2 24H1 24 1-2 3&2025 6 7“”“”2025 2 3“”“”(S0210524050004)-0.20-0.14-0.08-0.020.040.106/26 9/6 11/17 1/28 4/9 6/20农林牧渔 沪深300 华福证券 2|1.3 2.6 3 2025.8 4.9 5.11 1.3 2.3 3.3 4.3 5.4 6.4 7.4 8 2-/.4 9.5 10 kg.5 11 90kg 150kg.5 12 200kg/175kg/.5 13 14 7kg.5 14 50kg/.5 15.6 16.6 17.6 18.6 19.7 20.7 21.7 22.7 23.7 24/.7 25.8 26.9 27.9 28.9 29.9 30.10 31.10 32.10 33.10 34.10 华福证券YWFUxOmRpMpOrPnOrMsNmN8OdN7NpNmMtRtPkPoOpRjMpNyQ8OoOwONZrNvNxNmRxP 3|1 6 1-10 3.68%-2.72pct 6 6 10 52%3pct 5 6 21 18.25/-1.83%6 21/382.68/366.56/-30.58/-29.55/1 2 ifind 3 4 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4.95%+0.11pct 126.29+0.01%6 14-21 90kg 3.89%+0.26pct 051015202530352020 2021 2022 2023 2024-100-500501001502023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-06/0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%1 4 1 25 2 28 3 21 4 11 5 2 5 23 6 13 7 4 7 25 8 15 9 5 9 26 10 12 11 2 11 23 12 14 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 02468101214162020 2021 2022 2023 2024 华福证券ZzF9iw36X0XVyYedw8afZpDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD4DgTaMncyRibVLfKrgyyty 5|9 10 kg 11 90kg 150kg 12 200kg/175kg/6 18 14 7 685/-2.14%6 20 50kg 1622/-0.12%13 14 7kg 14 50kg/-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%050010001500200025002022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-042024-06E 1000 1001101201301402018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%2023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-06150kg 90kg-0.30-0.20-0.100.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.70200kg 175kg 01002003004005006007008002023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-06 14 7kg 1450150015501600165017002023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-0650kg/华福证券 6|5 15 16 ifind 2 7 8 6 21 2.30/-1.29%7.17/+2.28%6 21/-0.40/-3.01/-0.03/+0.31/17 18 ifind ifind 24H2“+”2022 25%22 5-2.50%-2.00%-1.50%-1.00%-0.50%0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3700380039004000410042004300440045002024-052024-032024-012023-112023-092023-072023-052023-032023-012022-112022-092022-072022-052022-03-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%2022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-05 0123456789101112/-4-2024/华福证券 7|22 5 23H2 24H1 24 1-2 3&19 20 21 22 23 24/0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0204060801001201401601 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500700900110013001500170019001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100012001400160018002000220024001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0501001502001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0200040006000800010000120001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 华福证券 8|25 3 2025 2025 6 7“”“”2025 2024“”2024 2 3“”“”2023“”“”“”01020304050607080901 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 华福证券 9|26 27 ifind ifind 28 29 ifind ifind 4 2024 6 21 3.33%1.14%2.03%300 1.30%23 2024 6 21-2.30%-3.07%-3.16%-3.38%-4.18%-4.83%2024 6 21+13.80%+9.79%+4.86%+3.23%+1.80%-12.72%-12.26%-9.76%-9.33%-8.61%2,0002,1002,2002,3002,4002,5002,6002,7002,8002,9003,0002022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-05/2,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0002022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-05/3,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5002022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-05/2,0002,2002,4002,6002,8003,0003,2003,4002022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-05/华福证券 10|30 ifind 31 32 ifind ifind 33 34 ifind ifind 000001.SH 2,998-0.24%-1.14%399001.SZ 9,065-0.04%-2.03%000300.SH 3,496-0.22%-1.30%399006.SZ 1,756-0.39%-1.98%801010 2,556 0.22%-3.33%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%华福证券 11|5 华福证券 12|6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6-20%-10%6-20%6 5%6-5%5%6-5%612 A 300 500 1436 MT 20 200120 华福证券
