去 库 存与 新 周期 相关研究：1.销售数据跟 踪：新 政短 期效果显现，沪广深 成交回 暖 2024.06.07 2.周度数据跟 踪：上 海二 手房成交继续 放量，广深新 房成 交逐步回暖 2024.06.17 行业评级：增持%1 3 12-12-8-18-17-9-28 300 分析师：张智珑 证 书 编 号：S0500521120002 Tel：(8621)50295363 Email：地址：上海市浦东新区 银城 路88号中国人寿 金融中 心10楼 2024H1 5 20%430 2022 2023 2015 5 6 7 2024 2024H2-11.8%3%-14.5%1 100 2024-6%2021 2024-20%2023 2024 1-5 3 2021H2 2024-15%2024-11.4%2024-10.1%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%2023/5/22 2023/7/21 2023/9/19 2023/11/18 2024/1/17 2024/3/17 2024/5/16 300()证 券研 究报告 2024 年 06 月22 日 湘 财证 券研究 所 行业 研究 房 地产 行业投 资策 略 430 5 YWCXvMqNtQrQtNoNmRtMpO8O9R8OmOmMsQrNfQmMpRfQoMoQ7NoOyQuOnQwOwMqRwP 1 正文目录 1 2024H1.3 1.1.3 1.2.4 1.3.10 1.4“”.13 2 2024H2.15 2.1.15 2.2.22 2.3.24 3.26 4.26 图表目录 1 A 4 30%6 21.3 2 A PB MRQ.3 3%.4 4%.4 5%.4 6%.4 7 12.5 8 12.5 9 12.5 10 12.5 11.5 12 30.6 13.6 14.6 15.6 16.7 17:.7 18 14.8 19 14.8 20 70%.9 21 70%.9 22 70%.9 23 70%.9 24.9 25%.10 2 26 10%.10 27.10 28.10 29.11 30.11 31.11 32%.11 33 100.12 34 100.12 35 100%.12 36.13 37 5.27.18 38 5.28.18 39.19 40 5 LPR%.19 41:5%.20 42.22 43 7.23 44 7.24 45 7.24 46 100.25 47 100.25 48.25 49.26 1.14 2 2024.16 3 4.17 4 5 17.21 DNPtA2RQI2aHQxTKw9e63ZDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD4SlPI8tcqRsyz0XZSFNOMS 3 1 2024H1 1.1 4 4 30 5 17 4 30 15%31 300 14pct PB 1 A 4 30%6 21 Wind 2 A PB MRQ Wind-30-25-20-15-10-50510150.00.51.01.52.02.53.020-01 20-04 20-07 20-10 21-01 21-04 21-07 21-10 22-01 22-04 22-07 22-10 23-01 23-04 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 A 4 1.2 2021 50%2024 1-5 3.66-20.3%0.1pct 3.07-23.6%0.2pct 1-5-27.9%0.4pct-30.5%0.6pct 5 9318-20.7%2.1pct 2013 2014 5-26.4%4pct 12 2021 6 47%49%50%1-5-18.9%-18.2%-22.8%-24.2%-20.8%-20.3%-13.9%-14.2%-29.4%-28.8%-29.3%-28.9%-24.5%-23.1%-21.3%-19.3%3%4%5%6%-60-40-20020406080100120050,000100,000150,000200,000:-60-40-20020406080100120020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000:-500501001500.0050,000.00100,000.00150,000.00200,000.00:-50050100150200020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000:5 7 12 8 12 9 12 10 12 11 40000600008000010000012000014000016000018000020000008-0208-0809-0209-0810-0210-0811-0211-0812-0212-0813-0213-0814-0214-0815-0215-0816-0216-0817-0217-0818-0218-0819-0219-0820-0220-0821-0221-0822-0222-0823-0223-0824-02 47%05000010000015000020000025000008-0208-0809-0209-0810-0210-0811-0211-0812-0212-0813-0213-0814-0214-0815-0215-0816-0216-0817-0217-0818-0218-0819-0219-0820-0220-0821-0221-0822-0222-0823-0223-0824-02 49%40000600008000010000012000014000016000018000008-0208-0809-0209-0810-0210-0811-0211-0812-0212-0813-0213-0814-0214-0815-0215-0816-0216-0817-0217-0818-0218-0819-0219-0820-0220-0821-0221-0822-0222-0823-0223-0824-02 51%02000040000600008000010000012000014000016000018000020000008-0208-0809-0209-0810-0210-0811-0211-0812-0212-0813-0213-0814-0214-0815-0215-0816-0216-0817-0217-0818-0218-0819-0219-0820-0220-0821-0221-0822-0222-0823-0223-0824-02 50%2023-06 26906 15811 14817 1981 38761 11763 11107 1461YoY(%)1.4-11.3-10.9 6.0 7.1-9.0-6.0-0.8 45.2%26.6%24.9%3.3%61.4%18.6%17.6%2.3%2023-07 30088 17576 16645 2254 43287 13024 12501 1638YoY(%)-1.1-11.1-11.2 0.1 3.0-9.5-6.4-6.9 45.2%26.4%25.0%3.4%61.4%18.5%17.7%2.3%2023-08 33470 19263 18629 2586 48004 14271 14027 1855YoY(%)-3.9-11.1-9.0-1.7-0.7-8.9-4.5-8.5 45.3%26.0%25.2%3.5%61.4%18.3%17.9%2.4%2023-09 38822 21850 21107 3027 54953 16106 15858 2154YoY(%)-5.2-11.0-8.7-2.4-3.0-9.2-4.4-8.5 45.8%25.8%24.9%3.6%61.7%18.1%17.8%2.4%2023-10 42307 23828 23122 3321 59820 17525 17455 2362YoY(%)-6.1-11.4-7.8-2.8-3.7-9.6-3.3-8.7 45.7%25.7%25.0%3.6%61.6%18.0%18.0%2.4%2023-11 46148 25607 25132 3622 64872 18853 19023 2571YoY(%)-6.3-12.2-7.2-3.4-4.3-10.2-2.8-8.8 45.9%25.5%25.0%3.6%61.6%17.9%18.1%2.4%2023-12 51590 28330 27829 3986 71939 20810 21032 2842YoY(%)-6.7-13.2-7.5-3.0-5.8-11.2-3.7-7.7 46.2%25.4%24.9%3.6%61.7%17.8%18.0%2.4%2024-02 4938 2813 3312 306 6201 1931 2224 211YoY(%)-17.7-24.0-21.7-19.1-31.0-28.6-25.3-25.7 43.4%24.7%29.1%2.7%58.7%18.3%21.0%2.0%2024-03 10192 5638 6103 734 12726 3878 4227 525YoY(%)-17.1-23.9-19.4-14.3-28.8-28.9-23.1-19.3 45.0%24.9%26.9%3.2%59.6%18.2%19.8%2.5%2024-04 13115 7412 7731 994 16790 5131 5456 690YoY(%)-18.2-24.2-20.3-14.2-29.4-29.3-24.5-21.3 44.8%25.3%26.4%3.4%59.8%18.3%19.4%2.5%2024-05 16603 9175 9560 1304 21481 6427 6838 919YoY(%)-18.9-22.8-20.8-13.9-29.2-28.3-24.5-19.2 45.3%25.0%26.1%3.6%60.2%18.0%19.2%2.6%6 2020 30 5-38.1%+5.1%0.8pct 1-5-40.9%1-4 0.7pct 30 5-31.8%-32.5%-43.3%-40.6%-29.5%-42.2%-8.8%+10.8%+10%30 5 2020 2021 57%2022 12 30 13 Wind Wind 14 15 Wind Wind 5 2016 12 32.8 Wind 5 20.6 30 5 70%18 13.1 20+01002003004005006007001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2022 2021 2020 2024 0204060801001201401601801 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2022 2021 2020 2024 0501001502002503003504001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2022 2021 2020 2024 0501001502001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2022 2021 2020 2024 7 16 17:Wind 14 5-7.2%-9.7%-7.7%5 2021 2022 2023 1-5-15.3%1-4 2pct 14 2023 33%8.2%2023 7.08 38.8%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000:05101520253002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002011-012011-062011-112012-042012-092013-022013-072013-122014-052014-102015-032015-082016-012016-062016-112017-042017-092018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-092023-022023-072023-122024-05:():8 18 14 Wind 14 19 14 Wind 2014 70 5 4.3%0.8pct 0.7%0.1pct 26 12 2014 15 11 6.6%1.2%5 3.2%3.7%4.9%0.7%0.7%0.8%0501001502002503001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2024-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%01000200030004000500060007000800090002020 2021 2022 2023 2024M1-5 YoY 9 5 7.5%0.7pct 1%0.1pct 28 13 2014 13 11 5.2%1%9.3%7.5%7.3%1.2%1%0.9%24.4%25.3%37.2%25.1%20 70%21 70%22 70%23 70%24 Wind-6-4-2024681012142018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04:-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.52018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04:-10-50510152018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04:-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04:0200400600800100012001400:-24.4%-25.3%-37.2%-25.1%10 5 1.75%1.48%1.64%1.68%2018 10 0 25%26 10%Wind Wind 1.3 1-5-10.1%-9.8%-24.2%-24.6%-11.6%-10.8%-20.1%-20.4%5-11%0.5pct-22.7%8.7pct-84.1%-18.4%0.7pct 2023 Q1 2021 63%30%27 28 1.001.101.201.301.401.501.601.701.8018-0118-0418-0718-1019-0119-0419-0719-1020-0120-0420-0720-1021-0121-0421-0721-1022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-04:2.002.202.402.602.803.003.203.403.603.8018-0818-1018-1219-0219-0419-0619-0819-1019-1220-0220-0420-0620-0820-1020-1221-0221-0421-0621-0821-1021-1222-0222-0422-0622-0822-1022-1223-0223-0423-0623-0823-1023-1224-0224-0424-06 10-20-1001020304050020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,00017-02 17-08 18-02 18-08 19-02 19-08 20-02 20-08 21-02 21-08 22-02 22-08 23-02 23-08 24-02:-60-40-20020406080050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000:11 29 30 2024 1-5-24.3%-24.9%-36.7%-37.2%-40.2%-39.7%-6.2%-10.1%-9.8%-10.1%5-21.8%0.5pct-34.7%1.6pct-42.1%6.4pct+16.9%-8.6%31 32%-30-20-1001020304050020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000:-15-10-50510150200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,000:-40-30-20-100102030405060050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000:-30-25-20-15-10-50510152023-03 23-04 23-05 23-06 23-07 23-08 23-09 23-10 23-11 23-12 24-01 24-02 24-03 24-04 24-05 12 1-5 100 26%29%9pct 7pct 2023 15%5 33.3%33 100 Wind 34 100 Wind 35 100%Wind 020000400006000080000100000120000140000160000100:100:-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%13-01 13-07 14-01 14-07 15-01 15-07 16-01 16-07 17-01 17-07 18-01 18-07 19-01 19-07 20-01 20-07 21-01 21-07 22-01 22-07 23-01 23-07 24-01100 YoY-MA3 051015202018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024M5 13 1.4 430 2022 2023 2015 5 6 7 36-1.5-1-0.500.511.522.5-80-60-40-20020406080100120140160-MA3%70%2007 9 2008 9 2009 12 2016 3-4 3.25 9070 2011 12 2014 9 9.30 2013 2 2014 3 2016 10 2021 12 2020 8 2020 12 2021 2 2023 7 2024 4 14 1 2021 4 30 7 30 12 6 12 10 2022 4 29 7 28 12 7 12 16 2023 4 28 7 24 12 8 12 16 15 2024 4 30 2 2024H2 2.1 4 30 1 2 3 4 5 2.1.1 2024 2024 18 36 36 18-36 5 10 22 15 2024 10%16 10%2 2024 1 36 36 2 18-36 2024 1 5 3 2100 5200 5 17 1 5 16 9350 2.1.2 4 1 17 120 5 5.17 3 4 4 18 4 28 4 30 1 4 30 1 2 120 5 3 3 5 6 1 1 1 5 9 1 2 3 4 5 9 5 15 2024 5 15 15 2025 5 14 1%1.5%5 27 5 3 18 3 2 1 1 5 28 6 37 5.27 38 5.28 LPR+20BP LPR-25BP 19 5 17 15%20%25%30%LPR-20BP LPR+20BP 25BP 5 2.85%3.325%39 40 5 LPR%Wind-1.5-1-0.500.511.522.5-80-60-40-20020406080100120140160-MA3%70%2006 5 90 20%30%2008 10 20%2023 8 20%30%2007 9 90 20%90 30%40%2009 7 20%2010 1 20%40%2010 4 20%90 30%50%2010 9 30%50%2011 1 30%60%2013 2 30%60%2013 10 70%2014 9 30%2015 3 30%40%2015 9 25%2016 2 20%30%2024 5 15%25%3.003.504.004.505.005.506.002019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-04:(LPR):5 20 41:5%Wind 2.1.3 5 17 60%3000 1.75%1 4 5000 2.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.51999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 21 4 5 17,3000 5000 18 8300 5000 6 22 42 Wind 2.2 5 17 3+Wind 5 17 5.11-5.17 660 5 17 5.18-5.24 661 6.10-6.16 923+26.1%5.27 39%6 1.3 2 6.10-6.16 231-39.2%-13.1%5.27 6 32.8 74,256 8,142 60,458 24.1 38,712 8,513 32,954 18 33,505 60%16,367 18 9,799 60%5,005 18 33,505 100%27,279 18 9,799 100%8,342 23 43 7 Wind 5 28 2 6/30%/40%15%/25%Wind 5.28 5.29-6.6 199 4 161 23.4%6.10-6.16 237+35.6%+28.9%5.28 51.5%2 5 6 3 1 5.7-5.13 4 19%5 28 5.29-6.6 4 5.2%6.10-6.16 81-7.5%+1.8%5.28 15.7%2015 01002003004005006007008009001,00023-09-18 23-10-18 23-11-18 23-12-18 24-01-18 24-02-18 24-03-18 24-04-18 24-05-18 24 44 7 45 7 Wind Wind 2.3 1 2024H2-11.8%3%-14.5%2 1 100 2024-6%2021 2024-20%2023 2024 1-5 3 2021H2 2024-15%2024-11.4%2024-10.1%050100150200250300350400450500050100150200250 25 46 100 Wind 47 100 Wind 48 Wind-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%13-0313-0914-0314-0915-0315-0916-0316-0917-0317-0918-0318-0919-0319-0920-0320-0921-0321-0922-0322-0923-0323-0924-03:4-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%09-1210-0610-1211-0611-1212-0612-1213-0613-1214-0614-1215-0615-1216-0616-1217-0617-1218-0618-1219-0619-1220-0620-1221-0621-1222-0622-1223-0623-12 12 6 100 12-60-40-2002040608014-0214-0614-1015-0215-0615-1016-0216-0616-1017-0217-0617-1018-0218-0618-1019-0219-0619-1020-0220-0620-1021-0221-0621-1022-0222-0622-1023-0223-0623-1024-02 26 49 Wind 3 430 5 4 2013 201,208 665,572 101,435 13,502 86,013 130,551 81,428 6,2372014 179,592 726,482 107,459 17,459 95,036 120,649 76,292 6,3242015 154,454 735,693 100,039 17,675 95,979 128,495 87,281 6,7932016 166,928 758,975 106,128 18,779 102,581 157,349 117,627 7,4762017 178,654 781,484 101,486 23,169 109,799 169,408 133,701 7,8922018 209,342 822,300 93,550 36,387 120,264 171,654 149,973 8,7372019 227,154 893,821 95,942 41,675 132,194 171,558 159,725 9,3102020 224,433 926,759 91,218 44,452 141,443 176,086 173,613 9,8602021 198,895 975,387 101,412 43,505 147,602 179,433 181,930 10,1392022 120,587 904,999 86,222 41,030 132,895 135,837 133,308 9,8142023 95,376 838,364 99,831 38,617 110,913 111,735 116,622 10,4372024E 76,300 742,835 84,856 36,300 99,727 98,550 99,775 10,124 2013 13.5 16.1 2.0 11.6 19.8 17.3 26.3 7.72014-10.7 9.2 5.9 29.3 10.5-7.6-6.3 1.42015-14.0 1.3-6.9 1.2 1.0 6.5 14.4 7.42016 8.1 3.2 6.1 6.2 6.9 22.5 34.8 10.12017 7.0 3.0-4.4 23.4 7.0 7.7 13.7 5.62018 17.2 5.2-7.8 57.0 9.5 1.3 12.2 10.72019 8.5 8.7 2.6 14.5 9.9-0.1 6.5 6.62020-1.2 3.7-4.9 6.7 7.0 2.6 8.7 5.92021-11.4 5.2 11.2-2.1 4.4 1.9 4.8 2.82022-39.4-7.2-15.0-5.7-10.0-24.3-26.7-3.22023-20.4-7.2 17.0-5.5-9.6-8.5-6.5 6.42024E-20.0-11.4-15.0-6.0-10.1-11.8-14.4-3.0 湘财证券投资评级体 系（市场比较基准为沪深 300 指数）6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%重要声明 分析师声明