20240621_东方证券_社会服务行业长期投资逻辑专题研究：“好生意”+“好阶段”看好中国酒店行业长期投资机会_26页.pdf
|2024 4 2004 2014+(MARRIOTT INTL)(MAR.O)(HLT.N)(IHG.N)2010 10 2012 2021 20 2019 26%23 41%3-5-S(01179)(ATAT.O)(600258)(600754)/2024 06 21 S0860522100001 BUY948 2024-06-19 2024-06-09 2024-06-03+2 1.5 2.24Q1.6 3.10 3.1.10 3.2.11 3.3.14 3.4.16 3.5.17 4.“”.19 5.24 6.24 ZXFUuNnQpMmNoQpMmRsNpO6M9R6MpNmMpNsOfQqQpRlOmOmQ7NnNvNNZsPrRMYrRnM+3 1.5 2.6 3.6 4/.6 5/.6 6/RevPAR 2019.6 7/24Q1%.7 8/24Q1%.7 9/24Q1.8 10/.8 11/24Q1.8 12.8 13 2022.9 14 OCC/ADR PMI.9 15 19.9 16“”.10 17 loyalty programmes.11 18 loyalty programmes.11 19:6:4.11 20 OTA.11 21 2019.12 22.12 23.13 24 2022.13 25 2022/.13 26 2019.13 27.14 28.14 29/.15 30 2003Q1=100.15 31.15 32.15 33.16 34.16 35.16 +4 36.17 37 50 50.17 38 2022 TOP10.17 39/.17 40.18 41.18 42.19 43.19 44.19 45.19 46 ADR 5/10/15 CAGR 2.7/2.9/2.8%.20 47 OCC.20 48 2006-2018.20 49 2006-2018.20 50 2006-2018 ADR OCC.20 51 2006-2018 CPI.20 52 2013-19 CAGR 2.0%.21 53 2013-19 CAGR 4.3%.21 54 2013-19.21 55 2013-19.21 56.22 57.22 58.22 59.22 60.22 61.22 62.23 63.23 64.23 65.23 4t4dpqkAT8Lr+LCXegIv15DzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD7FiHbVQfrgwEDmpQucWuuj+5 1.2024 4 2004 2014+1 2 3(MAR.O)(HLT.N)(IHG.N)(HTHT.O)2010 10 2012 2021 20 1 +6 2.24Q1 24Q1 24Q1 32.06/+6.77%1.9/+34.56%0.62/-31.19%24Q1 18.45/+11.47%1.21/+49.83%0.97/+102.19%24Q1 7.71/+101%yoy 9.38/+65%yoy-1.67 vs 23Q1-1.84 24Q1 14.7/+89.7%2.58/+1326%2.61/+63.4%EBITDA 3.54/+53.1%2 3 4/5/6/RevPAR 2019 05101520253035404550556065 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q203Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q211Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q233Q23 4Q23 1Q24(8)(6)(4)(2)024681012 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q203Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q211Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q233Q23 4Q23 1Q240 10 20 30 40 50-2023 2019+7 2019 100%/24Q1 RevPAR+3.1%/-1.6%/+2.0%/-2.6%24Q2 RevPAR Q1 7/24Q1%8/24Q1%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%RevPAR OCC ADR-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%RevPAR OCC ADR0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%120%130%1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 +8 24Q1/421/147/32/92/24Q1 134 9/24Q1 10/11/24Q1 12-200-1000100200300400500600 050010001500200025003000350040004500 23Q1 23Q4 24Q1-50050100150200250300350 0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%2020 2021 2022 2023 24Q1 3.5 4.0 +9 23Q4 24 RevPAR 2024 RevPAR 24Q2 13 2022 wind 24/5/24 14 OCC/ADR PMI 15 19 wind STR,:/OCC/ADR-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%140.0%&2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 48.549.049.550.050.551.051.552.052.5-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%2014/3/12014/5/12014/7/12014/9/12014/11/12015/3/12015/5/12015/7/12015/9/12015/11/12016/3/12016/5/12016/7/12016/9/12016/11/12017/3/12017/5/12017/7/12017/9/12017/11/12018/3/12018/5/12018/7/12018/9/12018/11/12019/3/12019/5/12019/7/12019/9/12019/11/1OCC ADR PMI +10 3.3.1 1 2 OTA/16 2012 Loyalty Programmes 7080%+11 17 loyalty programmes 18 loyalty programmes 2012 2012 3.2 50-60%40-50%19:6:4 20 OTA PPT/2019/2011 2021 30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%15-29 30-44 45-59 60+30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%15-29 30-44 45-59 60+60%60-70%40%30-40%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%+12 21 2019 100+22 25-44 8 6 1 PC +13 23 2022 2019 20%24 2022 25 2022/2022 2022 26 2019 2020 1-2 3-5 6-8 9-12 1 1 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1001-2000/501-1000/301-500/100-300/0%10%20%30%40%50%60%/+14 3.3/27 28/1.8-2.2 2.5-3 3-5 0.8-1.2 1.2-3 2-4 0.4-0.8 0.4-1.2 0.6-1.2 0.6-1 1.1-1.6 1.3-2.6 0.6-1.2 0.6-2.0 0.6-2 0.4-0.8 0.7-1.4 1.2-2.2 0.5-0.8 0.7-1 1-1.5 0.3-0.5 0.3-0.5 0.5-0.8 0.1-0.5 0.2-0.5 0.3-0.9 0.3-0.8 0.5-1 1-3 6-8/7-12/12-16/200-300m,3000/m,110-200/m UPS 10-15 2-4 20-30%+15 29/30 2003Q1=100 31 1 32 0.000.501.001.502.002.503.00 3 10%6%0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 2019 2019 2019 CBD 2016 2016 +16 33 34 100-120 500-800 120-150 1500-2000 IRR Reits 1970-1990s-3.4 take rate GOP ROE 35 +17 3.5 2023 1650 22 2019 41%2022 TOP50 21 399 439 36 37 50 50 38 2022 TOP10 39/0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%05001000150020002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20.4%14.6%8.5%5.5%37.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2019 2020 2021 2022 0501001502002503003504004505002019 2020 2021 202250 50 +18 3-5 40 41 05001000150020002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,0002019 2023 2019 2023 2019 2023 +19 4.STR 2012-2019 STR STR 42 43 STR STR 44 45 STR STR 1991-2019 2004-2019 CAGR 2.8%80901001101201301403003504004505005502012/022012/072012/122013/052013/102014/032014/082015/012015/062015/112016/042016/092017/022017/072017/122018/052018/102019/032019/08 010020030040050060070080090010002013/012013/052013/092014/012014/052014/092015/012015/052015/092016/012016/052016/092017/012017/052017/092018/012018/052018/092019/012019/052019/09 0102030405060708001002003004005006002013/012013/052013/092014/012014/052014/092015/012015/052015/092016/012016/052016/092017/012017/052017/092018/012018/052018/092019/012019/052019/09ADR RevPAR()OCC%01020304050607080902013/012013/052013/092014/012014/052014/092015/012015/052015/092016/012016/052016/092017/012017/052017/092018/012018/052018/092019/012019/052019/09(%)+20 46 ADR 5/10/15 CAGR 2.7/2.9/2.8%47 OCC STR STR 48 2006-2018 49 2006-2018 STR Bloomberg ADR/STR Bloomberg ADR/50 2006-2018 ADR OCC 51 2006-2018 CPI STR Bloomberg wind-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%020406080100120140 ADR ADR CPI 4050607080901001101201301402012/022012/072012/122013/052013/102014/032014/082015/012015/062015/112016/042016/092017/022017/072017/122018/052018/102019/032019/08OCC%ADR RevPAR 40050060070080090010004090140190240 4060801001201401601804006008001000120014001600 50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%80009000100001100012000130001400015000160001700018000 ADR OCC93949596979899100050100150200250300350:CPI 2020=100 +21 2013-2019 CAGR 2.0%52 2013-19 CAGR 2.0%53 2013-19 CAGR 4.3%54 2013-19 55 2013-19 2011 05010015020025030035013Q113Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3 18:ADR 18:ADR010020030040050060013Q113Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3 18:ADR 18:ADR40%50%60%70%80%90%100%13Q113Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3 18:OCC 18:OCC40%50%60%70%80%90%100%13Q113Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3 18:OCC 18:OCC+22 56 57 58 59 60 61 02004006008001,0001,2001,4002010/032010/092011/032011/092012/032012/092013/032013/092014/032014/092015/032015/092016/032016/092017/062017/122018/062018/122019/062019/122020/062020/122021/062021/122022/062022/122023/06:0%20%40%60%80%100%2010/032010/092011/032011/092012/032012/092013/032013/092014/032014/092015/032015/092016/032016/092017/062017/122018/062018/122019/062019/122020/062020/122021/062021/122022/062022/122023/06:0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%020040060080010001200200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022ADR OCC0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%02004006008001000120014002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 18H1 19H1 23H1ADR OCC04008001,2001,6002,000 ADR ADR JW ADR 0%20%40%60%80%100%OCC OCC JW OCC+23 62 63 64 65-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2005/022006/022007/022008/022009/022010/022011/022012/022013/022014/022015/022016/022017/022018/022019/022020/022021/022022/022023/02:-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202223M1-10:()yoy+24 5.-S(01179)(ATAT.O)(600258)(600754)6.+25 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer
