下 行 风险 释 放完 毕，供 给 收缩 助 推煤 价 上涨 相关研究：1.旺季需求 逐步释 放，动 力煤易涨难跌 2024.06.04 2.煤矿复产 从严，山西产 能恢 复进度存 疑 2024.06.06 行业评级：增持%1 3 12 31 30 39 25 22 31 300 S0500520120001 Tel(8621)50293524 Email Tel(8621)50293519 Email 88 10 2024 6 16 18.44%300 3.22%300 15.22 PE 12.73 67.06%PB 1.54 75.1%2023 2024 4 820/2024 2024 7 2024 5 2024-24%-18%-12%-6%0%6%12%-10%0%10%20%30%40%煤炭(申万)沪深300证 券研 究报告 2024 年 06 月28 日 湘 财证 券研究 所 行业 研究 煤炭 行业2024 年中 期策 略 1 正文目录 1.3 1.1.3 1.2.4 1.3.5 2.6 2.1.6 2.2.12 2.3.14 3.18 3.1.18 3.2.20 3.3.23 3.4.24 3.5.25 4.26 5.26 图表目录 1 2024 6.16.3 2 2024 6.16.3 3 10 PE TTM 6.16.4 4 10 PB 6.16.4 5 2024 Q:5500).5 6 2024.6 7.6 8.7 9.9 10.9 11.9 12.9 13.10 14.10 16 2024 5.11 17.12 18.12 19.14 20.14 21.15 WUDWuNnQpMpOoQoNrMoRmNaQ9R9PsQmMtRsOjMpPtMlOqQmN8OrRvNwMmPrMvPnPuM 2 22.16 23 2024-2025.17 24.18 25:.18 26:.18 27:.19 28:.19 29:.19 30:.19 31.20 32.20 33.20 34.20 35.21 36.21 37.21 38.21 39.21 40.21 41.22 42.22 43.23 44.23 45:.24 46:.24 47:.24 48:.24 1 2024.7 2.11 3.13 4 4.16 5 2024 3-4.17 6 2023 2024.25 7.26 3 1 1.1 6 16 18.44%300 3.22%300 15.22 33.09%2.79%23.87%1 2024 6.16 Wind 2 2024 6.16 Wind 18.44%3.22%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%33.09%18.44%3.22%2.79%-23.87%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%q+ORj+gzZiuigWRGYcMM3EnPyPSCGvG90wyKf2tEx5vpY3WbXdTJvgv1c4korrOy 4 1.2 6 16 PE 12.73 TTM 67.06%2023 PB 1.54 75.1%2023 3 10 PE TTM 6.16 Wind 4 10 PB 6.16 Wind 020406080100120051015202530354045市盈率TTM 剔除负值 分位点（%）-右02040608010012000.511.522.53市净率 分位点（%）-右 5 1.3 2024 6.16 Q5500 1 2 2 4 820/2024 14.23%4 6 2024 2024 9.82 6.5%1-5 2.52 3.6%800/5 2024 Q:5500)Wind 2024 6.16 4 1890/2024 31.77%6 7008009001000110012001300140015001600动力煤（Q:5500)秦皇 岛(元/吨)6 6 2024 Wind 2 2.1 2024 1-5 185788 3.0%4 0.5 5 38385 0.8%2.1 3.28%5 7 Wind 900180027003600京唐港:库提价 山西产（元/吨）-10-505101520050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000产量:原煤:当月值（万吨）产量:原煤:当月同比（%）-右 7 8 Wind 5 1238.2 4 1239 0.8 2023 1243 4.8 2024 1 2024 1 1 2 2 2-6-4-202468101214050000100000150000200000250000300000350000400000450000产量:原煤:累计值（万吨）产量:原煤:累计同比（%）-右 8 4 4 4 5 2024 2025 6 Wind 2024 1 2 10%2023 13.75 Mysteel 12.1 2023 13.6%2024 1-5 47390.6 15.0%5 10566.4 6.9%2021-2023 29.31%29.07%29.12%2024 25.5%4 1 2021 8 5 1 1 2024 2024 9 13 4 11.1 2 6 1 9 10 Wind Wind 2024 1-5 52544.6 2.7%5 10055.0 1.2%5 5 11 12 Wind Wind 2024 1-5 30864.9 1.6%5 6633.5 5.3%-25-20-15-10-5051015020000400006000080000100000120000140000160000山西:产量:原煤:累计值（万吨）山西:产量:原煤:累计同比（%）-右-25-20-15-10-50510152002000400060008000100001200014000山西:产量:原煤:当月值（万吨）山西:产量:原煤:当月同比（%）-右024681012141618020000400006000080000100000120000140000内蒙古:产量:原煤:累计值（万吨）内蒙古:产量:原煤:累计同比（%）-右-10-5051015202502000400060008000100001200014000内蒙古:产量:原煤:当月值（万吨）内蒙古:产量:原煤:当月同比（%）-右 10 13 14 Wind Wind 5 27254.9 486.9 1.76%71%0.97 5 5 1-5 13.1 70.4%4.67%70%01234567801000020000300004000050000600007000080000陕西:产量:原煤:累计值（万吨）陕西:产量:原煤:累计同比（%）-右-4-20246810121456005800600062006400660068007000陕西:产量:原煤:当月值（万吨）陕西:产量:原煤:当月同比（%）-右 11 15 2024 1-5 Wind 15 2024 5 Wind 2 5 1-5 10566.4 7.51-6.9 47390.6-15 10055-0.74-1.2 52544.6 2.7 6633.5 2.35 5.3 30864.9 1.4 3779.3 4.49 12.3 19591.3 6.6 1246 2.87 6 5578.2 6.1 916.4 5.06 7.6 4206.1-0.6 902 6.22 7 4313.3 7.2 854.8 5.23-10.5 4394.7-6.1 812.1 8.44 9.3 3682 4.2 588.8-4.48-13.2 2905.5-7.9 477.9-7.74-3.9 2844 18.7 山西,25.5%内蒙古,28.3%陕西,16.6%新疆,10.5%其他,19.1%山西内蒙古陕西新疆其他山西,27.5%内蒙古,17.3%陕西,26.2%新疆,9.8%其他,19.2%山西内蒙古陕西新疆其他 12 391.8 12.62-33.3 1851.6-34.7 358.8-0.08-6.3 1848-4.2 246.2 8.12-0.4 1208.2 3.6 180.4 9-6.5 773-13.3 82.5-0.96 16.6 392.9 13.1 80.8 1.76 4.7 390.6 1.7 71.1-4.69 12.2 305.9-3.9 64.7-0.61-6.2 367.5 10.7 37.9 4.12 5.8 157.9 6.3 20.2-3.81-11.9 105.5-7.4 12.6-25.44 16.4 45.2-16.7 6.1 19.61-7.4 26.4 9.4 2.2 2024 1-5 19560.4 10.5%5 3749.9 12.3%16 17 Wind Wind“”“”“”2200-2600km 800-1100km 150230 13001600km 210300 20003000 0510152025303505000100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000新疆:产量:原煤:累计值（万吨）新疆:产量:原煤:累计同比（%）-右-20-1001020304050600100020003000400050006000新疆:产量:原煤:当月值（万吨）新疆:产量:原煤:当月同比（%）-右 13 3 KM/-2238 379.1-2228 374.5-2935 490.1-2550 457.3-2670 483.9-1501 237.0-1567 261.4-1405 227.2-958 155.7-879 143.3-953 162.8-1598 241.2-938 155.2-989 164.3 Q5500 2024 1-5 Q5500 926.5 927.7 889.4 830.7 860.0/5.6%1-2 10.2%-1.7%12.3%3994 1-2 4143 3605 3750 1-3 4000 4 2024 5+14 18 Wind 2.3 2024 5 4381.6 10.7%1-5 20496.9 12.6%2024 2023 61.81%-49.22pct 2024 5 4 3.17%19 Wind 80082084086088090092094035003600370038003900400041004200疆煤产量（万吨）秦皇岛Q5500 动力煤价格（元/吨）-右-100%-50%0%50%100%150%05000100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000进口数量（万吨）同比（%）-右 15 20 Wind 64%8%5%2023 73%25%1%5 CEA 5 1195.3 12.7%2.6%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0500100015002000250030003500400045005000进口数量（万吨）同比（%）-右 16 21 Kpler 4 1623 11%10%4 4 1 2 3 4 2022 7.38 7.74 16.39 12.56 44.07 2023 10.55 10.78 13.52 14.73 49.58 2024 13.68 14.15 15.12 16.23 59.18 Kpler 2025 BigMint 2025 11.28 2024 10.98 3%2025 8.6 2024 8.45 4600 2024 5000 5400 1000 2024 the Energy Cell of the Federal Ministry of Coal)2030 15 2047 20 17 22 2024-2025 Bigmint 60%3000 16%1500 8%5 2024 3-4 4 3 3294.9 3117.2 0.06 0.07 11901.6 0.13 100.0%1772.8 1959.5-0.1-0.14 7327.3-0.04 61.6%410.2 317.1 0.29-0.02 1298.6-0.21 10.9%175.9 143 0.23 0.37 504.1 0.25 4.2%640 498.9 0.28 0.72 2059.3 2.56 17.3%0 0-1 35.9-0.3 0.3%22.5 0-37.8 1.36 0.3%273.5 198.6 0.38 2.45 638.6 1.83 5.4%18 3 3.1 2024 1-4 13.5 5.44%1-4 8.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.6 1.2+5.3%-13.2%+30%-6.9%+9.5%+5.3%61.9%5.3%6.8%4.2%12.7%8.9%23 Wind 24:25:Wind Wind-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000消费量:动力煤:国内:合计:当月值（万吨）同比（%）-右-10%0%10%20%30%050001000015000200002500030000消费量:动力煤:电力行业:合计:当月值（万吨）同比（%）-右-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%0500100015002000250030003500消费量:动力煤:国内:建材行业:当月 值（万吨）同比（%）-右 19 26:27:Wind Wind 28:29:Wind Wind 60%2023 2024 2024 9.8 2023 6%2024 14.5 2023 1 2024 4 1.72%3 22.16pct 15.14%5-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%050010001500200025003000消费量:动力煤:国内:化工行业:当月值（万吨）同比（%）-右-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0200400600800100012001400160018002000消费量:动力煤:国内:冶金行业:当月值（万吨）同比（%）-右-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%01000200030004000500060007000消费量:动力煤:国内:供热行业:当月值（万吨）同比（%）-右-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%050010001500200025003000350040004500消费量:动力煤:国内:其他行业:当月值（万吨）同比（%）-右 20 3.2 2024 1-5 36570 5.5%2023 1-5 1.6 5 7179 2.3%2023 5 30 31 Wind Wind 1-5 25173 3.6%14.9%1.0%5.0%25.3%5 4538 4.3%38.6%29.1%2.4%3.3%32 33 Wind Wind 02468101214160100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000产量:发电量:累计值（亿千瓦时）产量:发电量:累计同比（%）-右-6-4-20246810120100020003000400050006000700080009000产量:发电量:当月值（亿千瓦时）产量:发电量:当月同比（%）-右-5051015200100002000030000400005000060000产量:火电:累计值（亿千瓦时）产量:火电:累计同比（%）-右-15-10-5051015200100020003000400050006000产量:火电:当月值（亿千瓦时）产量:火电:当月同比（%）-右 21 34 35 Wind Wind 36 37 Wind Wind 38 39 Wind Wind-30-25-20-15-10-5051015202502000400060008000100001200014000产量:水电:累计值（亿千瓦时）产量:水电:累计同比（%）-右-40-30-20-100102030405002004006008001000120014001600产量:水电:当月值（亿千瓦时）产量:水电:当月同比（%）-右-10-50510152025303501000200030004000500060007000产量：风电:累计值（亿千瓦时）产量:风电:累计同比（%）-右-20-15-10-5051015202530350100200300400500600700800产量:风电:当月值（亿千瓦时）产量:风电:当月同比（%）-右05101520253005001000150020002500产量：太阳能:累计值（亿千瓦 时）产量:太阳能:累计同比（%）-右-10010203040050100150200250产量:太阳能:当月值（亿千瓦时）产量:太阳能:当月同比（%）-右 22 40 41 Wind Wind 2024 2023 3 2025 9.8 10.2 2024 2025 2024 14,0246810121416050010001500200025003000350040004500产量：核能:累计值（亿千瓦时）产量:核能:累计同比（%）-右-10-505101520050100150200250300350400450产量:核能:当月值（亿千瓦时）产量:核能:当月同比（%）-右 23 42 Wind 43 Wind 3.3 2024 5 17 010000200003000040000500006000070000产量:火电:累计值 产量:水电:累计值 产量:风电:累计值 产量:核电:累计值 产量:太阳能:累计值01000200030004000500060007000产量:火电:当月值 产量:水电:当月值 产量:风电:当月值 产量:核电:当月值 产量:太阳能:当月值 24 3.4 2024 5 963.1 17%4.4%1-5 4465.5 24.7%5 63.7 0.9%3.2%1-5 304.3 2.7%44:45:Wind Wind 46:47:Wind Wind-60-50-40-30-20-100102002004006008001000120014001600中国:进口数量:钢材:累计值（万吨）中国:进口数量:钢材:累计同比（%）-右-60-50-40-30-20-10010200102030405060708090100中国:进口数量:钢材:当月值（万吨）中国:进口数量:钢材:当月同比（%）-右-40-30-20-100102030405060010002000300040005000600070008000900010000中国:出口数量:钢材:累计值（万吨）中国:出口数量:钢材:累计同比（%）-右01020304050607080020040060080010001200中国:出口数量:钢材:当月值（万吨）中国:出口数量:钢材:当月同比（%）-右 25 2023 2022 2023 2024 2035 7500 1.9 1 3 mysteel 2024 17.8 0.8%2024 6 2023 2024 2023 2024(%)(%)(%)(%)124200-1.2 70.36 124000-0.2 69.72 18900-1.4 10.71 19700 4.5 11.08 5390 4.7 3.05 5480 1.7 3.08 13800 0.7 7.82 14000 1.4 7.87 4040-1.9 2.29 4130 2.2 2.32 3830-3.5 2.17 4020 5 2.26 5610-1.7 3.18 5780 3 3.25 740 1.4 0.42 750 1.4 0.42 176510-1.3 100 177860 0.8 100 3.5 2024 2023 2023,2024 2024 2023 26 7 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 E 20.86 22.54 23.64 25.73 26.88%1.7%8.1%4.9%8.8%4.5%2.00 2.21 2.3 2.52 2.74%2.4%10.5%4.1%9.6%8.7%3.22 3.13 2.93 2.91 2.74%6.6%-2.8%-6.4%-0.7%-5.7%3.69 3.81 3.83 4.12 4.34%2.9%3.3%0.5%7.6%5.3%1.73 1.69 1.71 1.77 1.77%7.7%-2.3%1.2%3.5%0.0%2.89 3.24 2.99 3.37 3.69%2.8%12%-8%13%9.5%5.57 5.45 5.56 5.91 6.08%2.0%-2.2%2.0%6.3%2.8%39.95 42.28 42.98 46.35 48.24%2.6%5.8%1.7%7.8%4.1%38.44 40.71 44.96 46.58 45.18%4.2%5.9%10.4%3.6%-3.0%3.04 3.23 2.93 4.74 5.21%1.4%6.3%-9.3%61.8%10.0%0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04%-47.1%-18.4%53.7%11.7%0.0%41.45 43.92 47.85 51.28 50.44%2.6%6.0%8.9%7.2%-1.6%-1.5 1.64 4.87 4.93 2.20 Wind 4 2024 5 湘财证券投资评级体 系（市场比较基准为沪深 300 指数）6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%重要声明 分析师声明