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20240627_民生证券_电新行业EV观察系列164：5月国内新能车市场保持稳定增长_31页.pdf

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20240627_民生证券_电新行业EV观察系列164：5月国内新能车市场保持稳定增长_31页.pdf

*EV 1645 2024 06 27*1 5 5 94 95.5 31.9%33.3%8.1%12.4%39.5%5 89.7 32.1%13.8%5 44.2%10.2pcts 5 80.4 38.5%18.7%5 47.0%14.0pcts 5 41.2%12.6%5 82.7GWh 5.7%34.7%5 39.9GWh 41.2%12.6%5 29.5GWh 54.1%15.8%74.0%5 10.4GWh 14.7%4.3%26.0%5 17.29GWh 43.87%5 11.42GWh 28.97%TOP3 5 3.00GWh,7.61%TOP3 79.5%24 5 304.9 4 7.3 23 6 24 5 8.0 24 1-5 132.8 389.5 1 2.9 24 5 41.4 4 2.0 50.9%5.0%TOP10 24 5 992.4 56.1%304.9 46.3%687.4 60.9%XVFUxOrMtQmNqOmPrMsNpObRaO8OsQqQpNnReRmMqOjMsQwO7NmMxPvPmQpRuOqMyR*2 1 a b c d e 2 4680 4680 210Wh/kg 91 270Wh/kg a b c LIFSI 3 2-3 a b c 4 a b 1 2*C O N T E N T S5 41.2%12.6%02035 01 04130405 uhfuoVC5BgJoae9pIsPOjpDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD7G8yqyhPbITEJFw9Yci28Z*5 01.4*3 2024 5 235 5 237.2 241.7 1.7%1.5%1.4%2.5%2024 5 5 94 95.5 31.9%33.3%8.1%12.4%39.5%24 24 24 3 5 01 5 5 1 23-24 5 2 23-24 5-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%02000004000006000008000001000000120000014000001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2024-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%02000004000006000008000001000000120000014000001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2024*3 5 5 89.7 32.1%13.8%5 44.2%23 5 34.0%10.2pcts 24 4 39.9%4.3pcts 5 59.8%32.7%5 80.4 38.5%18.7%5 47.0%23 5 33.0%14.0pcts 24 4 43.7%3.3pcts 5 71.2%28.4%24 5 016 3 2024 5%4 2024 5%5 0%20%40%60%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0%20%40%60%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024*3017 5 23-24 5 6 23-24 5%5 5 55.7 8.8%58.3 12.5%5 38.3 91.2%37.1 87.7%5 61.1%5 38.9%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2024 0%20%40%60%80%0%20%40%60%80%100%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2023 2024 2024*3018 7 2024 5%8 19-23 24 5%5 A0 B 5 53.1 9.4%14.8%5 27.6 84%8%5 B 19.4 42%36%A00+A0 A00 8.1 11%5%15%A0 12.7 24%A 10.9 21%B 15%24%21%36%4%A00A0ABC0%20%40%60%AOO AO A B C2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24 1-5*3019 9 24 5 5 5 16.3%3.5 32.7%8.0%1.2 050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000*30110 10 24 5 11 24 5 5 24 5 26.82 21.5%33.4%5.62 148.3%4.6%6.9%16 2 4 88.6%86.7%82.1%050000100000150000200000250000300000050000100000150000200000250000300000350000*3 24 5 14 ET EX30 D5X DMH T9 9 07EV L6 07 06 DM-i L M7 2024 0111 5 1 2024 5 ET C SUV 07EV B SUV A00 B SUV EX30 A0 SUV L6 C D5X DMH A SUV 07 B T9 B SUV 06 DM-i B MAXUS 9 C MPV L B A00 M7C SUV*3 2025 1379 CAGR 40.7%2021-2022 2023 950 2024 1-5 363.7 2025 1379 21-25 CAGR 40.7%44%0112 12 13%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%020040060080010001200140016002020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E国内新能车销量（万辆）国内新能车销量增速0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%020040060080010001200140016002020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E国内新能车销量（万辆）渗透率5*5 41.2%12.6%02.13*3 5 82.7GWh 5.7%34.7%24 1-5 345.5GWh 39.0%2024 5 39.9GWh 41.2%12.6%24 1-5 160.5GWh,34.6%51.1GWh 31.9%34.9%109.3GWh 68.1%34.6%5 025 41.2%12.6%14 14 23-24 5 MWh 15 23-24 5 MWh-100%-50%0%50%100%01000020000300004000050000600007000080000900001000001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2024 2023 2023 2024 2024-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%01000020000300004000050000600001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2024 2023 2023 2024 2024*3 24 5 TOP1 24 5 TOP2 2024 5 TOP15 39.28GWh 99.68%17.29GWh 43.87%5 11.42GWh 28.97%4 TOP3 5 3.00GWh 7.61%TOP3 79.5%4 79.4%0.1 pct 38 3 0215 16 2024 5 TOP15 5 41.2%12.6%43.87%28.97%7.61%3.92%3.25%2.91%2.43%2.21%1.52%0.87%0.77%0.64%0.40%0.18%0.13%LG*3 20 3 2021 7 50%24 5 22.0GWh 26.6%13.6%2.7%5 60.5GWh 73.1%44.5%9.2%10.4GWh 26.0%14.7%4.3%29.5GWh 74.0%54.1%15.8%0216 17 23-24 5 MWh 18 23-24 5 MWh 5 41.2%12.6%0%20%40%60%80%01000020000300004000050000600007000023 1 23 2 23 3 23 4 23 5 23 6 23 7 23 8 23 9 23 10 23 11 23 12 24 1 24 2 24 3 24 4 24 5 0%20%40%60%80%0500010000150002000025000300003500023 1 23 2 23 3 23 4 23 5 23 6 23 7 23 8 23 9 23 10 23 11 23 12 24 1 24 2 24 3 24 4 24 5*3 NCM NCA 0217 mAh/g 130-140 150-220 140-150 100-120 2 Model 3 Model 3 Model Y Power Day-2021 10 5 41.2%12.6%*3 2024 1-4 215.7 GWh 21.5%2024 1-4 TOP10 197.0GWh 91.3%6 63.8%TOP1 2024 1-4 81.4GWh 37.7%2024 1-4 33.2GWh 15.4%3 22.8%0218 19 2024 1-4 GWh SNE 5 41.2%12.6%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0%*3 2025 731GWh 20-25 63%2025 1190GWh 20-25 54%0219 20 2020-2025 GWh 21 2020-2025 GWh 6315532044856373101002003004005006007008002020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E137297506702906119002004006008001000120014002020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E5 41.2%12.6%*03.20*3 1 2.9 24 1-5 132.8 389.5 1 2.9 24 5 24 4 7.3 46.3%24 5 304.9 134.7 170.2 2023 6 2024 5 8.0 03 21 22 21-24 5 23 21-24 5 KWh EVCIPA EVCIPA 0%20%05000001000000150000020000002500000300000035000002020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/102024/012024/04 0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%050100150200250300350400450 KWh*3 EVCIPA 24 5 TOP10 69.9%4 5 TOP10 24 5 688294 5 24 5 41.4 2.0 50.9%5.0%24 5 9.01 KWh 03 22 24 2024 5 TOP10 25 2024 5 TOP10 KWh EVCIPA EVCIPA 01020304050607080 0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000100000*3 24 5 3751 24 4 36 24 5 TOP10 454 12.10%438 11.68%TOP3 376 10.02%TOP3 33.80%5 TOP2 5 2435 24 4 19 707 24 4 10 322 24 4 5 03 23 26 24 5 TOP10(27 24 5 EVCIPA EVCIPA 0%4%8%12%16%050100150200250300350400450500 050010001500200025003000*3 2024 1-5+132.8 15.8%32.3 13.0%100.4 16.8%24 5 992.4 56.1%304.9 46.3%687.4 60.9%03 24 28 24 5 EVCIPA 304.9687.4*04.25*3 2024 4680 CTB 24 1149 1 2 4680 4680 210 Wh/kg 91 270Wh/kg LiFSI 3 2-3 4 04 26*05.27*305 28 1 2*THANKS 29 8 1 5F 200120 28 A 19 100005 6001 32 05:518026 S0100521100006 S0100523050004 S010052312002 S0100122060007 S0100122060013 S0100522120001 S0100122120021 S0100524010003 S0100123020010*12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%5%5%5%-5%5%5%*1430

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