20240624_招商证券_建材行业定期报告：地产投资销售继续下探等待新政落地效果_26页.pdf
|2024 06 24/2024/6/17-6/23 428/0.9%30-50/10-20/63.75%0.63%115/6.25/305.73/3.74/48%20240620 1653 13 11 1659 4.69 118.7-0.68%+3.61%20240620 5982.7+169.0+2.91%+8.29%25.5+0.8 1 2 CCL PCB CCL 2024 5-10.1%/-20.3%/-27.9%/-24.3%/-11.6%/-20.1%-22.6%/-18.4%107 2.1 749.0 1.0 632.1 0.9%1m 6m 12m-15.9-15.8-25.8-11.0-20.7-16.2 1 2024-06-17 2 2024-06-12 3 2024-06-03 S1090517070008 S1090523070010-30-20-1001020Jun/23 Oct/23 Jan/24 May/24(%)建材 沪深300 2.5 1.5 2.5 3.6.7 1.7 2.8 1.8 2.8 3.9 4.9 5.14 6.16 7.18.19 1.19 2.20.22 1 0.96/48.57%.22 2 1/10 33.54%.22 3 0.65/10 73.69%.23 4 A 0.38 26.18%.23 5 6.39/6.11/.23 6*ST.23 7 2314.93 1.0915%.23 8 20.21%.23 9 48.6.23 10 53.09%.24 11 78.5.24 12.24 YWBYyRsPnOnMpRmPqNsNmN7N9R9PtRpPpNsOfQoOpRlOpNrM7NrRxPNZpMpMNZtQsN 3 13.24 14 2024 6 20.24 15 320.23 2724.43.24 16.24 17.24 18 310 20.67%.25 19 1.25 20.25 1 P.O42.5/.12 2/.12 3 P.O42.5/.13 4 P.O42.5/.13 5 P.O42.5/.13 6 P.O42.5/.13 7 P.O42.5/.13 8 P.O42.5/.13 9%.14 10/.15 11/.15 12/.15 13/.15 14.16 15/.17 16/.17 17/.17 18.17 19.18 20 PVC PPR HDPE/.18 4 21/.18 22/.18 23 LNG/.18 24/.19 25/.19 26.19 27.20 28.20 29 PE 2024.20 30 PE 2024.20 1.9 2.20 KfvZahaBUZ+4VwcEHjLCdZDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD6xPWmb7BciP7aMgrUrxySg 5 1 428/0.9%30-50/10-20/63.75%0.63%115/6.25/305.73/3.74/48%20240620 1653/13 11/1659/4.69/118.7-0.68%+3.61%20240620 5982.7+169.0+2.91%+8.29%25.5+0.8 1 2 CCL PCB CCL 2 2024 5-10.1%/-20.3%/-27.9%/-24.3%/-11.6%/-20.1%-22.6%/-18.4%5 17 C 5 631-0.4%4 5 4.5%Q2 6 3+C+2024-2025 EPS 0.93 0.99+C 2024-2025 EPS 1.01 1.14+/2024-2025 EPS 0.19 0.28+2024-2025 EPS 0.31 0.38+2024-2025 EPS 2.58 2.95+7 2024-2025 EPS 1.10 1.28+&2024-2025 EPS 0.99 1.15 1+N+2024-2025 EPS 0.67 0.74 2024-2025 EPS 0.66 0.80 1 1 5 5 4.8%1.3 3.7%1.4 8.6%11.2%0.6 6.1 5%0.2 CPI 0.3%2 5 5.6%0.30%3.6%6.0%4.3%49.5%54.3%1 5 6.2%4 8 5 5 3.7%3.6%LPR 1.6 1.9 5000 3000 2 1 1 1 5 4.06 10.1%3.08 10.6%3.66 20.3%3.57 27.9%3.57 27.9%30.5%5 92.01 1 5 68.89 11.6%2 5 0.7%0.1 1.1%1.4%0.8%0.6%0.7%0.8%0.2 3.2%0.7 1.8%8.3%7.4%4.5%3.7%4.9%0.8 0.7 3 3000 5000 2 1 9 2 1 5 18.80 4.0%8.6%5 0.04%5.7%9.6%10.1%23.7%0.1%6.9%3 1 1-5 6.87 9.8%1-4 0.5 1.9%10.9%5 1.8 8.2%3.2%2011 2 2024 35 165 76%6 400/3 1-5 18.6 3.0%5 3.8 0.8%1-5 2.0 12.6%10 9.3 4400 50.0%4 0.9%30-50/10-20/48%1 5 3-4 25/3-5 10 4 6 15 50/2-3 7-9 15 50%3-4 40 3 3-4 3-4 10/5 50/30/30-35/5-6 30/30/6-7 6 5-6 6-7 5-7 4-5 5-6 4-5 4 80%3-4 5-6 4-5 4-5 7 20 30/15/11 5-8 40 30%5 20-30/7-8 30/4 7 3-4 60%-70%7 30/5-6 P.O42.5 315-320/3-4 4 20-50/4-6 5-6 20/4-5 5-6 10 6 30 5 50/30-50/4-5 20/80%3 3-4 30-50/12 1-3 5 60%-70%50/60/5-8 60%-70%6 50/2-3 7 15 20%-30%4-5 P.O42.5 Q5500 720/305.73/3.74/100kg 1 P.O42.5/2/wind P.O42.5 200300400500第1 周第3 周第5 周第7 周第9 周第11 周第13 周第15 周第17 周第19 周第21 周第23 周第25 周第27 周第29 周第31 周第33 周第35 周第37 周第39 周第41 周第43 周第45 周第47 周第49 周第51 周2014 年 2015 年 2016 年 2017 年2018 年 2019 年 2020 年 2021 年2022 年 2023 年 2024 年02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001502002503003504004505005502016/032016/062016/092016/122017/032017/062017/092017/122018/032018/062018/092018/122019/032019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/032024/06水泥煤炭 价格差动力煤炭 价格（右轴）13 3 P.O42.5/4 P.O42.5/5 P.O42.5/6 P.O42.5/7 P.O42.5/8 P.O42.5/63.75%0.63%10 5 50%0501001502002503003504004505005506002009/6/192009/12/192010/6/192010/12/192011/6/192011/12/192012/6/192012/12/192013/6/192013/12/192014/6/192014/12/192015/6/192015/12/192016/6/192016/12/192017/6/192017/12/192018/6/192018/12/192019/6/192019/12/192020/6/192020/12/192021/6/192021/12/192022/6/192022/12/192023/6/192023/12/192024/6/191502503504505506507502009/6/192009/12/192010/6/192010/12/192011/6/192011/12/192012/6/192012/12/192013/6/192013/12/192014/6/192014/12/192015/6/192015/12/192016/6/192016/12/192017/6/192017/12/192018/6/192018/12/192019/6/192019/12/192020/6/192020/12/192021/6/192021/12/192022/6/192022/12/192023/6/192023/12/192024/6/191502503504505506507502009/6/192009/12/192010/6/192010/12/192011/6/192011/12/192012/6/192012/12/192013/6/192013/12/192014/6/192014/12/192015/6/192015/12/192016/6/192016/12/192017/6/192017/12/192018/6/192018/12/192019/6/192019/12/192020/6/192020/12/192021/6/192021/12/192022/6/192022/12/192023/6/192023/12/192024/6/191502503504505506507502009/6/192009/12/192010/6/192010/12/192011/6/192011/12/192012/6/192012/12/192013/6/192013/12/192014/6/192014/12/192015/6/192015/12/192016/6/192016/12/192017/6/192017/12/192018/6/192018/12/192019/6/192019/12/192020/6/192020/12/192021/6/192021/12/192022/6/192022/12/192023/6/192023/12/192024/6/191502503504505506507502009/6/192009/12/192010/6/192010/12/192011/6/192011/12/192012/6/192012/12/192013/6/192013/12/192014/6/192014/12/192015/6/192015/12/192016/6/192016/12/192017/6/192017/12/192018/6/192018/12/192019/6/192019/12/192020/6/192020/12/192021/6/192021/12/192022/6/192022/12/192023/6/192023/12/192024/6/191502503504505506507502009/6/192009/12/192010/6/192010/12/192011/6/192011/12/192012/6/192012/12/192013/6/192013/12/192014/6/192014/12/192015/6/192015/12/192016/6/192016/12/192017/6/192017/12/192018/6/192018/12/192019/6/192019/12/192020/6/192020/12/192021/6/192021/12/192022/6/192022/12/192023/6/192023/12/192024/6/19 14 9%5 20240620 1653/13 11/1659/4.69/01020304050607080902012/6/212012/12/212013/6/212013/12/212014/6/212014/12/212015/6/212015/12/212016/6/212016/12/212017/6/212017/12/212018/6/212018/12/212019/6/212019/12/212020/6/212020/12/212021/6/212021/12/212022/6/212022/12/212023/6/212023/12/212024/6/21 15 10/11/2021 2022 74.57 0.98 1.33%89.45%88.27%1.18%89.65 0.84 0.95%10+0.37 75+90+%16.88 13 1.07%11.45 2400 12/13/Wind 14001600180020002200240026002022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022023/032023/042023/052023/062023/072023/082023/092023/102023/112023/122024/012024/022024/032024/042024/052024/06华北 华东 华中 华南东北 西南 西北 全国100015002000250030003500第1周第3周第5周第7周第9周第11 周第13 周第15 周第17 周第19 周第21 周第23 周第25 周第27 周第29 周第31 周第33 周第35 周第37 周第39 周第41 周第43 周第45 周第47 周2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 2024050010001500200025003000350040002009/06/212009/12/212010/06/212010/12/212011/06/212011/12/212012/06/212012/12/212013/06/212013/12/212014/06/212014/12/212015/06/212015/12/212016/06/212016/12/212017/06/212017/12/212018/06/212018/12/212019/06/212019/12/212020/06/212020/12/212021/06/212021/12/212022/06/212022/12/212023/06/212023/12/212024/06/21-1000-50005001000150020002015/6/212015/12/212016/6/212016/12/212017/6/212017/12/212018/6/212018/12/212019/6/212019/12/212020/6/212020/12/212021/6/212021/12/212022/6/212022/12/212023/6/212023/12/212024/6/21浮法玻璃：以煤炭为燃料的浮法工艺：生产毛利浮法玻璃：以石油焦为燃料的浮法工艺：生产毛利浮法玻璃：以天然气为燃料的浮法工艺：生产毛利 16 20240620 301 249 52 16.88 13-1.07%118.7-0.68%+3.61%2024 6 20 82.72%13-0.39%83.43%13-0.65%82.92%-0.62%83.78%-0.36%20240620 5982.7+169.0+2.91%+8.29%25.5+0.8 14 6 6 20 2400tex 3800-4000/3844.25/3844.25/2.72%0.37 6 20 701.8/1.42%01000200030004000500060007000800090002009/6/212010/1/212010/8/212011/3/212011/10/212012/5/212012/12/212013/7/212014/2/212014/9/212015/4/212015/11/212016/6/212017/1/212017/8/212018/3/212018/10/212019/5/212019/12/212020/7/212021/2/212021/9/212022/4/212022/11/212023/6/212024/1/21 17 PCB CCL 15/16/17/18 0204060801002017/052017/112018/052018/112019/052019/112020/052020/112021/052021/112022/052022/112023/052023/112024/05库存（万 吨）18 19 7 20 PVC PPR HDPE/21/Wind Wind 22/23 LNG/Wind Wind 0204060801001 月 2 月 3 月 4 月 5 月 6 月 7 月 8 月 9 月 10 月 11 月 12 月2018 年 2019 年 2020 年2021 年 2022 年 2023 年2024 年02000400060008000100001200014000160002016/6/212016/11/212017/4/212017/9/212018/2/212018/7/212018/12/212019/5/212019/10/212020/3/212020/8/212021/1/212021/6/212021/11/212022/4/212022/9/212023/2/212023/7/212023/12/212024/5/21PVC PPR HDPE05001000150020002500300035002015/052015/112016/052016/112017/052017/112018/052018/112019/052019/112020/052020/112021/052021/112022/052022/112023/052023/112024/05国废均价010002000300040005000600070002013/12/192014/6/192014/12/192015/6/192015/12/192016/6/192016/12/192017/6/192017/12/192018/6/192018/12/192019/6/192019/12/192020/6/192020/12/192021/6/192021/12/192022/6/192022/12/192023/6/192023/12/192024/6/19全国均价 重交沥青建筑沥青 改性沥青01000200030004000500060007000800090002014/6/102014/12/102015/6/102015/12/102016/6/102016/12/102017/6/102017/12/102018/6/102018/12/102019/6/102019/12/102020/6/102020/12/102021/6/102021/12/102022/6/102022/12/102023/6/102023/12/102024/6/10LNG 价格 19 24/25/Wind Wind 1 1.14%1.98%2.17%3.54%1.95%-0.78%-3.08%-4.16%-4.22%-5.30%26 iFinD 2021 05000100001500020000250002018/012018/042018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10钛白粉均 价05000100001500020000250003000035000400002012/03/212012/10/212013/05/212013/12/212014/07/212015/02/212015/09/212016/04/212016/11/212017/06/212018/01/212018/08/212019/03/212019/10/212020/05/212020/12/212021/07/212022/02/212022/09/212023/04/212023/11/212024/06/212%1%1%0%0%0%0%-1%-1%-1%-1%-2%-2%-2%-2%-2%-2%-3%-3%-3%-3%-3%-3%-4%-4%-4%-4%-5%-5%-5%-6%-7.0%-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%电子通信建筑装饰石油石化汽车农林牧渔银行交通运输非银金融环保有色金属机械设备公用事业计算机基础化工建筑材料国防军工煤炭医药生物电力设备美容护理钢铁家用电器纺织服饰轻工制造社会服务综合食品饮料传媒商贸零售房地产 20 27 28 Wind Wind 2024 14 A 8.82 9.38 13.05 13.46 13.49 13.73 14.77 15.79 30.40 29 PE 2024 30 PE 2024 Wind Wind 2 17.39%9.17%8.61%8.15%8.11%-16.04%-15.41%-13.21%-8.20%-8.04%2 1 17.39%5.91%33.23%2 9.17%2.19%29.12%3 8.61%-0.12%20.17%4 8.15%-2.46%17.83%5 8.11%-5.27%14.92%6 7.08%-6.33%12.51%7 6.72%-6.78%8.82%-2.03%-1.98%-1.47%-1.14%-2.17%-2.5%-2.0%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%深证成指 创业板指 中小板指 上证综指 建材行业-5.30%-4.22%-4.16%-3.08%-0.78%1.95%3.54%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%其他建材耐火材料玻纤制造玻璃制造管材水泥制造水泥制品569111112 11.81 12121313141414141515151616171718181920212128303205101520253035银行建筑装饰石油石化煤炭房地产交通运输非银金融环保家用电器钢铁建筑材料通信基础化工轻工制造纺织服饰公用事业商贸零售有色金属电力设备汽车传媒机械设备综合食品饮料社会服务医药生物美容护理农林牧渔电子计算机国防军工8.94 9.07 12.26 12.53 13.15 13.81 14.23 15.32 27.81 051015202530水泥制品玻璃制造防水材料其他建材耐火材料水泥制造玻纤制造管材涂料 21 8 6.57%-6.85%3.34%9 5.74%-6.93%0.79%10 5.24%-7.45%0.53%11 ST 4.97%-8.39%-1.02%12 4.58%-8.77%-1.08%13 4.28%-8.98%-3.26%14 3.36%-9.02%-4.46%15 3.06%-9.07%-4.57%16 2.27%-9.70%-4.87%17 2.14%-9.97%-7.06%18 1.32%-10.07%-7.75%19 0.96%-10.52%A-8.26%20 0.88%-10.80%-8.36%21 0.87%-10.88%-10.28%22 0.59%-10.88%-10.55%23 0.59%ST-11.52%-12.89%24 0.55%-11.79%-13.25%25 0.51%-12.20%-13.88%26 0.00%-12.50%-14.45%27 0.00%-12.71%-15.91%28 0.00%-12.83%-16.55%29-0.25%-12.84%-16.82%30-0.26%-12.92%-17.23%31-0.36%-13.66%-17.30%32-0.63%-13.79%-17.45%33-0.79%A-13.97%-17.59%34-0.84%-14.01%-17.60%35*ST-0.85%-14.04%-18.63%36-0.96%-14.05%-18.86%37-1.08%-14.07%-19.28%38-1.10%*ST-14.07%-20.50%39-1.14%-14.20%-20.95%40-1.25%-14.21%-21.31%41-1.40%-14.31%-21.32%42-1.53%-14.32%-21.96%43-1.66%-14.37%-23.55%44-1.90%-14.44%-25.57%45-2.15%-14.47%-26.43%46-2.19%-14.61%-27.29%47-2.29%-14.68%-27.34%48-2.40%-15.15%-27.75%49-2.43%-15.15%-28.89%50*ST-2.46%-15.20%-29.03%51-2.73%-15.22%-29.12%52-2.78%-15.31%-29.19%53-2.79%-15.37%-29.30%54-2.80%-15.38%-29.46%55-2.80%-15.41%-29.58%56-2.80%-15.76%-29.59%57-2.82%-15.96%-30.15%58-2.82%-16.00%-30.71%59-3.00%-16.17%-30.78%60-3.06%-16.42%-30.87%22 61-3.08%-16.46%-31.24%62 A-3.22%-16.53%-32.86%63-3.36%-16.67%-33.80%64-3.41%-16.70%-33.85%65-3.52%-16.81%-34.29%66-3.55%-16.88%-34.89%67-3.56%-17.66%-35.21%68-3.62%-17.69%-35.73%69-3.73%-17.75%-35.78%70-3.78%-17.92%-35.82%71-3.91%-17.92%-35.99%72-4.07%-18.61%-36.27%73-4.29%-18.73%-36.67%74-4.41%-20.04%-36.85%75-4.71%-20.77%-38.01%76-5.21%-21.12%-38.68%77-5.28%-21.65%-38.78%78-5.37%-21.71%-39.28%79-5.38%-21.88%-40.07%80-5.38%-21.99%-40.90%81-5.71%-22.04%-42.50%82-5.73%-22.12%-44.90%83-5.77%-22.54%-45.37%84-5.87%-22.64%-45.52%85-6.10%-22.87%-46.32%86-6.12%-23.20%-46.58%87-6.81%-23.64%-47.16%88-6.82%-23.90%-47.93%89-7.02%*ST-24.14%-49.47%90-7.36%-24.33%ST-50.00%91-7.75%-25.21%-50.21%92-8.01%-25.26%-50.52%93-8.02%-26.17%-51.01%94-8.04%-26.60%-54.28%95-8.20%-28.82%-54.36%96-13.21%-32.07%*ST-60.00%97-15.41%-36.88%*ST-68.72%98-16.04%-45.65%-72.07%iFinD 1 0.96/48.57%A 52.77 0.96 50.66 2 1/10 33.54%1174.90 23 12.17 10 1.00 33.54%2.51%3 0.65/10 73.69%2023 12 31 9.37 10 0.65()6091.61 4 A 0.38 26.18%A 2023 12 31 0.38 26.18%1.72%H 0.4173 H 20%5 6.39/6.11/2024 6 20 332.00 0.34%6.39/6.11/2083.80 6*ST 2024 6 4 3 3 7 2314.93 1.0915%2024 5 31 6 6 19 2314.93 1.0915%2567.22 8 20.21%7780.08 20.21%648.34 1.68%9 48.6 2021 1 48.6 6 21 24 10 53.09%1.08 5733.83 53.09%5066.17 46.91%11 78.5 278.5 12 1882.46 0.7475%2019 11 11 5.68/2024 6 17 13 123 122 2390 2340 2700 2650 6.70/2024 6 18 14 2024 6 20 127035 2024 6 14 2024 6 19 2024 6 20 15 320.23 2724.43 2024 6 17 320.232 1.0504%0.0942%10.23/6.32/2724.43 16 2024 6 21 127044 17 25 6434.12 22.88%1700 8.01%18 310 20.67%2021 11 26 2024 6 19 310.10 20.67%19 1 2024 6 20 0.99/1 A 20 1 20 2024 6 20 2024 6 27 26 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%“”
