20240704_华创证券_计算机行业智能驾驶专题系列一：政策与产业共振车路协同产业加速_29页.pdf
2009 1210 2024 7 4 2023 L2 47.3%2024 1 5 50%2024 6 4 L3 FSD ODD-VICAD ODD 2025/2030 7295/25825 28.8%2010 2024 5 31 6 14 170 7 3 5 20 5G RSU 2024-2030 RSU 7%-8%2030 RSU 81.84 7.72%OBU RSU OBU OBU 2029 OBU 171 20 S0360523040001%()334 0.04()31,731.22 3.75()27,516.98 4.17%1M 6M 12M-3.9%-20.3%-34.7%0.1%-21.7%-24.8%20240617-20240621 2024-06-23 AI+WWDC2024 AI iOS 18 2024-06-17 20240611-20240614 2024-06-16-43%-27%-11%5%23/06 23/09 23/11 24/02 24/04 24/062023-06-282024-07-03 300 2009 1210 L3 ODD ODD 2024 5 2024 0YCXwPtOnOqRpRmPmRqPpOaQbP9PoMmMmOnRiNnNsNiNnNsPbRmNqOxNtOmMxNoPnQ 2009 1210 3.5.5 L3.6.7 ODD.8.9-.9.13.16.18.18.21.23.23.24.25.26 2009 1210 4 1.5 2.6 3 2021-2023 NOA.6 4.7 5.7 6 FSD V12.8 7 FSD.8 8.10 9.11 10 VICAD.11 11 VICAD.12 12 C-ITS VICAD.12 13.13 14.14 15 VICAD.15 16.15 17 2023.16 18.17 19.17 20.18 21.18 22 17+7+16.19 23.20 24.20.21 26.22 27.23 28.24 29 V2X.24 30 V2X.24 31 RSU.25 32 OBU.25 33.26 hGhA5ZJB3KcHO9Y1qT4WWUnPyPSCGvG90wyKf2tEx5tLfeb2GPziO+O5GCOMcS8P 2009 1210 5 92%60 2030 1.5 1 SAE SAE Level-0 Level-5 Level-0 Level-1 Level-2 Level-3 Level-4 Level-5 2009 1210 6 2 SAE 2023 L2 47.3%2024 1 5 50%L3 NOA 2025 NOA 300 NOA 3 2021-2023 NOA L3 L3 L3 L4 L5 2009 1210 7 4 L3 2024 6 4 L3 L3 5 2009 1210 8 Autonomous Driving AD Vehicle-Infrastructure Cooperated Autonomous Driving VICAD AD VICAD AD VICAD FSD FSD V12 FSD V12 2024 4 24 FSD 13 6 FSD V12 7 FSD 2024Q1 ODD ODD 1 2 ODD ODD 2009 1210 9 ODD ODD 3 ODD ODD ODD ODD-V2X V2X-V2X vehicle-to-everything V2V V2P V2I V2N 2009 1210 10 8 Rohde&Schwarz C-V2X 2009 1210 11 9 1.0 VICAD VICAD VICAD 1 10 VICAD Apollo 2.0 2009 1210 12 2-VICAD-VICAD ODD 11 VICAD Apollo 2.0 3 VICAD 12 C-ITS VICAD Apollo 2.0 2009 1210 13 AI L1-L2 ADAS L3 ADAS AI 13 VICAD ODD ODD 1 2 2009 1210 14 3 4 VICAD 14 Apollo 2.0 VICAD L4 2009 1210 15 15 VICAD Apollo 2.0 VICAD L2 L3 L4 16 Apollo 2.0 2009 1210 16 AI AI AI AI 170 Waymo 10 100 2,000 17 2023 2024 5G 4G 5G 5G 5G LTE-V2X LTE-V2X 5G-V2X RSU L4-L5 2009 1210 17 18 VICAD VICAD VICAD 5G C-V2X 5G C-V2X 2025/2030 7295/25825 28.8%19 2009 1210 18 2010 20 5G V2X 21 2024 6 9 9 7 2024 1 2023 11 2009 1210 19 2023 7 2023 2023 4 IPv6 IPv6 2023 3 2023 2027 2023 17 7 16 22000 5200 8800 22 17+7+16 2023 2009 1210 20;5G 23 7 3 5 20 1 2 3 24 1 2 3 4 2009 1210 21 5 6 7 8 9 10-11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-20 5 31 6 14 170 2024 20 25/2024/6/16 2024/6/14 1.5 5.578km 16 2024/6/12 2024/6/6 2024/6/7 2024/6/5 2024/6/5 2024/6/4 36 49 30 2009 1210 22 2024/6/4 2024/5/31 2324 6050 2024/4/28 106 811 3-5 26 Wai CHEN 2009 1210 23 27 2009 1210 24 28 1.0 ICVTank 2019 V2X 900 V2X 200 22.2%2022 1650 500 30.3%29 V2X 30 V2X ICVTank ICVTank 3 1 RSU 2 OBU T-BoX 3 AloT 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0200400600800100012001400160018002017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E V2X%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01002003004005006002017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E V2X%2009 1210 25 RSU 5G RSU RSU RSU 2024-2030 RSU 7%-8%2030 RSU 81.84 7.72%31 RSU OBU OBU RSU OBU OBU 2024 3100 1%OBU 2024 1%75%OBU 2024 1500 700 2029 OBU 171 32 OBU%OBU OBU OBU 2024E 3100 1%31 1500 5 2025E 3131 10%313 1200 38 2026E 3162 20%632 1000 63 2027E 3194 40%1278 900 115 2028E 3226 60%1936 800 155 2029E 3258 75%2444 700 171 20 6.60%6.80%7.00%7.20%7.40%7.60%7.80%01020304050607080902024年 2025 年 2026 年 2027 年 2028 年 2029 年 2030 年RSU%2009 1210 26 33 YTD PE_TTM PS_TTM 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 147-30%30.60 33.47 31.22 1.22-3.36-13.14-4.78 138-22%102.81 70.03 77.94 7.24-4.83 5.42 42.96 1.80 124-45%20.20 16.04 7.65-1.67 0.12-18.90-21.63 98-12%87.35 94.66 105.44 11.73-3.43 0.74 135.63 0.94 79-4%5.93 5.97 7.42 1.88 1.51 1.91 40.72 10.43 79 25%9.45 8.73 9.09 0.43-0.29-3.86-8.25 78 11%26.73 23.33 17.99 0.43-2.72-1.03-4.36-W 68-51%32.62 40.22 46.78 1.46 2.35-2.17-1.40 59 63%3.02 4.91 5.12-1.93 0.19 0.49 93.58 11.62 50-28%10.51 15.41 12.43 0.40 0.73 0.29-4.32 48-25%7.15 7.40 5.31-1.71 0.51-2.32-8.85 Wind 2024 7 3 2009 1210 27 2020 2022 2023 2023 2024 2023 2024 2009 1210 28 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 29 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
