20240703_东海证券_电力行业深度报告系列一：成长性+稳健性兼备电力改革助推行业优势持续_22页.pdf
HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN Table_Reportdate 2024 07 03 table_invest Table_NewTitle+Table_Authors S0630519030001 S0630523100001 table_stockTrend table_product 1.2024/06/24-2024/06/28 2.20240624-20240630 3.2024/06/17-2024/06/23 table_main 2023 6.70%1.29 2024Q1 9.80%2.35 1 2 3 4 2024/2025/2026/2030 98556.06/104804.70/111150.67/137106.96 6.85%/6.34%/6.06%/5.10%2024-2030 1 2 A 2024-2030 2024/2025/2026/2030 102151.81/108157.59/114446.74/139435.54 14.66%/5.88%/5.81%/4.97%2024 5 14 2024 7 1 5 23 1 2023 SW/SW/SW/SW/SW 37.54%/202.67%/44.71%/26.44%/28.39%300 36.45%2 1 2 3 4-52%-41%-30%-19%-8%3%14%23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04:(0763)300 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 2/22 1.4 1.1.GDP.4 1.2.+.5 1.2.1.5 1.2.2.6 1.2.3.7 1.2.4.8 1.3.GDP.10 2.11 2.1.11 2.1.1.11 2.1.2.12 2.1.3.13 2.2.14 2.3.15 2.3.1.15 2.3.2.2024.16 2.3.3.16 3.+.17 3.1.17 3.1.1.17 3.1.2.18 3.2.+.19 4.21 5.21 ZXCXzQtOnOqRqOmPqNsNnM6M9R9PnPpPmOsOfQmMpQiNnNqM8OmMxPuOqNsOMYnOsN HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 3/22 1 GDP%.4 2%.5 3/%.5 4%.6 5 2023%.6 6 GDP%.7 7%.8 8%.8 9%.8 10 2024 6.9 11 2024 2.9 12.9 13 GW%.11 14.11 15 2023 A%.13 16.13 17 2023%.13 18 h.16 19 2023.17 20 2023 TOP10%.17 21%.18 22 2015-2023 GW.18 23.18 24%.18 25.19 26 SW P/E.20 27 SW P/B.20 28 12%.20 1.10 2 2023 A%.12 3.14 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 4/22 1.1.1.GDP/GDP 1 0 1 0 1 GDP%ifind o6lqLOch1fz3PDn9yHJXOknPyPSCGvG90wyKf2tEx5srBcEi00hoJQM5H/IIBuWq HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 5/22 20 1 GDP 1 GDP 1 2 2020-1 2023 2023 6.70%1.29 2024Q1 9.80%2.35 1.2.+1.2.1.2020 26.2%44.9%3.9%2023-2025 28.2%-30.6%51.4%-55.9%4.8%-5.5%2030 2021 26.9%2030 35%2%3/%Wind 2023 959.37/+1.33%2023 14.66%2023 55.25%2020 35.2%,2016 26.0%2023-2025 42.2%-47.6%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 6/22 1.2.2.4 4%5 2023%ifind ifind 2023 12.2%2.10 2024Q1 9.80%2.90 2 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 7/22 6 GDP%ifind 1 2 2023 58.24%2024 Q1 1755303.00 19.06%70.61%1.2.3.2023 76.29%1 2018 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 8/22 55.16%2023 53.31%2023+5.62%7%8%ifind ifind 2 2023 10178.02 2018 20.43%2023 22.32%2023+11.12%2023 21.86%76.68%2024Q1 12.22%73.15%2023 34.10%2024Q1 15.63%9%ifind 1.2.4.2023 14.98 2023 1850 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 9/22 6 12 2024 7 15-30 1-2 10 2024 6 11 2024 2 12 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 10/22 Wind 1.3.GDP GDP=*=*GDP*1:GDP 2024-2030 GDP 5%GDP GDP 2024 GDP 5%2030 GDP 4.72%2.2024 1.37 2.90 1.20 2.50 2025-2030 3.GDP 2024-2026 4.18%/5.87%/6.51%2024/2025/2026/2030 98556.06/104804.70/111150.67/137106.96 6.85%/6.34%/6.06%/5.10%1 2024-2030 1 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2030E 1023.00 1146.00 1278.00 1355.83 1468.03 1577.95 2177.27 56131.00 57001.00 60745.00 64025.23 66469.07 69242.83 82689.35 14231.00 14859.00 16694.00 19085.42 21950.96 24442.17 33760.38 11743.00 13366.00 13524.00 14089.59 14916.65 15887.72 18479.97 83128.00 86372.00 92241.00 98556.06 104804.70 111150.67 137106.96%19.09%12.02%11.52%6.09%8.28%7.49%8.40%9.60%1.55%6.57%5.40%3.82%4.17%4.32%17.74%4.41%12.35%14.33%15.01%11.35%7.16%7.25%13.82%1.18%4.18%5.87%6.51%4.55%10.68%3.90%6.80%6.85%6.34%6.06%5.10%GDP 83216.45 88207.00 89755.20 91640.06 94673.35 97627.15 110200.40 451544.08 473789.90 482588.50 504304.98 521804.37 542154.74 637298.92 614476.45 642727.10 688238.40 727674.46 773008.58 817997.68 1009613.59 GDP 1149236.98 1204724.00 1260582.10 1323619.50 1389486.29 1457779.57 1757112.92 GDP%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 11/22 7.07%4.20%4.10%2.10%3.31%3.12%3.11%8.67%2.60%4.70%4.50%3.47%3.90%4.08%8.49%3.00%5.80%5.73%6.23%5.82%5.30%GDP 8.45%3.00%5.20%5.00%4.98%4.92%4.72%2.70 2.86 2.81 2.90 2.50 2.40 2.70 1.11 0.60 1.40 1.20 1.10 1.07 1.06 2.09 1.47 2.13 2.50 2.41 1.95 1.35 1.26 1.30 1.31 1.37 1.27 1.23 1.08 ifind 2.2.1.2.1.1.2021 12 2023 12 2024 2023 2919.65GW 13.9%2024 13 GW%14 Wind 4 68 35.29%45.59%13.24%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 12/22 1 2020 12 2()2.1.2.A A A 2023 A 13565.50 4.65%2 2023 A%ROE 6301.31 24.08%3430.74-0.42%596.94 14.88%4578.99 73.92%1809.99-7.02%56.09 11.83%2292.56 64.09%376.42-5.57%62.49 9.12%767.51 74.29%144.43-3.42%9.08 7.85%1685.72 70.01%424.02 8.03%15.93 8.14%2230.36 62.62%1171.76 9.45%45.22 9.34%159.99 58.56%19.90-23.83%2.65 7.11%2230.36 62.62%1171.76 9.45%45.22 9.34%1952.39 63.78%234.61-0.51%76.38 10.50%3039.99 70.90%1224.04 4.77%13.65-1.04%472.80 55.36%80.91-23.85%12.26 6.93%3117.08 69.37%264.85 11.23%71.81 8.99%5719.43 62.88%781.12 13.43%272.39 13.52%5392.67 69.81%749.57 5.15%106.24 12.19%4152.50 60.19%825.49-0.33%107.25 9.76%420.87 58.23%51.16-2.37%15.11 9.26%6301.31 24.08%3430.74-0.42%596.94 14.88%ifind HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 13/22 15 2023 A%2.1.3.2023 216.02GW+147.13%58.53%75.66GW 21.52%2020 11.51%2023 20.88%+9.36 pct 2020 12.79%2023 15.12%+2.33 pct 2023 2939.70 3.30%8090.50 9.08%16 17 2023%ifind HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 14/22 2.2.=*1.2024/2025/2026 6265/5000/2500 2030 0 2.2024/2025/2026 1398/1000/800 2030 4000 2026-2030 800 3.2024/2025/2026 390/919/1023 2026-2030 2023 2030 2035 10%2022 2026-2030 1206 4.8000-9000 2024/2025/2026 9000/8421/8712 2030 9203 5.22000 2024/2025/2026 24000/21920/23336 2030 25159.05 6.2024-2030 2024/2025/2026/2030 102151.81/108157.59/114446.74/139435.54 14.66%/5.88%/5.81%/4.97%3 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2030E 129739.00 133328.86 139032.00 145297.00 150297.00 152797.00 154497.00 39093.50 41405.65 42154.00 43552.00 44552.00 45352.00 48552.00 5326.00 5552.92 5691.00 6081.00 7000.20 8023.20 12725.20 32871.00 36563.79 44134.00 53134.00 61555.00 70267.00 103570.00 30654.00 39268.24 60949.00 84949.00 106869.00 130205.00 228203.05 237777.00 256794.42 291965.00 333013.00 370273.20 406644.20 547547.25 4628 4471.00 6567.00 6265.00 5000.00 2500.00 0.00 2349 2387.00 1034.00 1398.00 1000.00 800.00 800.00 340 228.00 139.00 390.00 919.20 1023.00 1206.00 4757 3763.00 7566.00 9000.00 8421.00 8712.00 9203.00 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 15/22 5493 8741.00 21602.00 24000.00 21920.00 23336.00 25159.05 17,567.00 19,590.00 36,908.00 41,053.00 37,260.20 36,371.00 36,368.05 4448.00 4379.00 4466.00 4545.21 4433.54 4350.23 4396.06 3622.00 3412.00 3133.00 3383.00 3286.00 3366.00 3200.00 7802.00 7616.00 7670.00 7690.00 7655.00 7641.00 7815.00 2232.00 2221.00 2225.00 2221.00 2236.00 2204.00 2219.00 1281.00 1337.00 1286.00 1238.00 1206.00 1218.00 1210.00 3817.00 3687.00 3592.00 3268.97 3075.78 2946.18 2634.02 57702.70 58531.30 62318.00 64616.74 65526.43 65926.50 67917.79 11840.20 12020.00 11408.90 14497.17 14475.49 15130.84 15408.64 4075.20 4177.80 4332.60 4496.34 4936.46 5661.52 9379.25 5667.00 6867.20 8090.50 10401.83 12445.64 14142.76 21552.68 1836.64 2290.00 2939.70 8139.73 10773.56 13585.11 25177.17 81,121.80 83,886.30 89,090.80 102151.81 108157.59 114446.74 139435.54 97.59%97.12%96.58%96.48%96.90%97.12%98.33%81121.80 83886.30 89090.80 102151.81 108157.59 114446.74 139435.54 ifind 2.3.2.3.1.2023 3592.00h-95.00h 2022-279.00 h-51.00h 2023 2023 4466.00 h+87h 2023 13.70%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 16/22 18 h ifind 2.3.2.2024 2024-2030 1/96%2 3 2024/2025/2026/2030 4545.21/4433.54/4350.23/4396.06 2024 2024 4 1448 24 2024 1.37 GDP 5%2024 98556.06 2024 41053/6265/1398/390/9000/24000 102151.81+79 2.3.3.28 1 5000 Q1 2024 4 300963 8998.00 2024 2023 1 1.3 2024 2023 10 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 17/22 21338 7.31%14468 4.96%13161 4.51%19 2023 20 2023 TOP10%ifind 3.+3.1.3.1.1.2024 1-4 3.70%8.90%28.20%2023 7 1.2.3.4.HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 18/22 21%22 2015-2023 GW ifind EIA 2024 1 2023 5 14 2024 7 1 5 23 3.1.2.2015 2019 12 38.98%2023 12 66.16%2023 56679.4+7.9%44288.9+7%2024 1-4 18603.5+5.9%14638.1+4.1%23 24%ifind ifind HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 19/22 25 2024 2 2024 6 2024 6 30 3.2.+HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 20/22 2024 6 30 SW/SW/SW/SW/SW P/E 41.28/23.93/38.84/21.03/20.22 SW/SW/SW/SW/SW P/B 1.88/2.26/1.33/1.50/2.08 26 SW P/E 27 SW P/B Wind Wind 2023 SW/SW/SW/SW/SW 37.54%/202.67%/44.71%/26.44%/28.39%300 36.45%2023 300 A 2023 77.16%75.22%44.26%28 12%ifind 2023 2024 1 24 2024 1 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 21/22 29 2024 4.1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5.1 2 3 4 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 22/22 6 300 20%6 300-20%20%6 300 20%6 300 10%6 300-10%10%6 300 10%6 300 15%6 300 5%15%6 300-5%5%6 300 5%15%6 300 15%1928 87 D 15F 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