20240705_海通证券_日本银行业系列报告一：眼看他起朱楼透视泡沫孕育之时_21页.pdf
Table_MainInfo/2024 07 05 Table_InvestInfo Table_QuoteInfo-12.79%-6.36%0.07%6.51%12.94%19.37%2023/7 2023/10 2024/1 2024/4 Table_ReportInfo 2024.06.18 5 2024.06.17 2024 2024.06.17 Table_AuthorInfo:Tel:(010)50949926 Email:S0850515040002:Tel:(021)23154395 Email:S0850518120003:Tel:(021)23185697 Email:S0850523100001:Tel:(021)23185609 Email:Table_Summary 90 90 2022 2023 2022 1991 LTV 49895 2 1.90.5 1.1.5 1.2.6 1.3.9 2.11 2.1.11 2.2.13 3.16 3.1.16 3.2.17 3.3.18 3.4.19 4.20 1ZEVyRmRmPqRqOpMrMsNmNaQdN9PmOqQoMtPlOqQoRkPmMmRbRrQsMMYsOtMxNoMtR 3 1 2019 12.5 2%.9 3 3M TIBOR-3M LIBOR.11 4.12 5.12 6.14 7 GDP.15 8.15 9 2010 3=100.16 10/.16 11 90 20.17 12%.18 13%.18 14%.18 15%.18 16.19 17.20 4 1 1992.5 2 1990-2019.6 3.6 4%.7 5%.8 6.8 7.9 8 1980-2005%.13 9.17 B+rr0rKzkIW2kUV88h4dv0nPyPSCGvG90wyKf2tEx5tElybzl/Bbk8GgIsKYpC7m 5 1.90 1.1 90 90 10%“DBJ”1 2019 12 JBA 1 1992 11 2.5 7 20%3 72%64 8%66 1989 3%MBA 6 90 13 5 90 21 2 1990-2019 3 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 13 11 9 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 16 23 33 26 19 16 16 16 15 14 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 68 65 60 48 42 41 41 41 40 39-9 16 15 15 15 13 15-12 15 17 18 20 22 25 JBA 1990 3 1996 2001.4 2005.10 2006.1 2001.4 2000.9 2002.4 2002.4 2003.1 2001 2002.12 19911992 2003 3 2003 埼 2003 埼 19911992 埼 1997 2006 1.2-1948 65 20 80 1982 1987 7 1952 4%1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 87.3 85.4 84.9 72.5 51.8 1.5 0.9 3.2 7.3 11.8 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.7 3.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.6 1.2 3.3 11.6 5.9 0.7 1.3 3.9 11.4 9.4 16.2 16.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 8 5%1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 0.1 0.1 1.5 12.4 15.3 17.9 12.5 7.7 24.1 23.1 19.5 26.7 48.5 3.9 2.9 6.3 4.9 1.7 1.1 0.4 3.3 4.3 2.7 3.4 4.7 10.4 8.9 6.2 18.1 16.6 11.0 108 9.2 25.3 20.2 9.4 13.5 8.5 2.1 5.4 4.8 3.9 3.5 4.6 8.6 10.0 10.0 7.0 4.9 2.7 7.4 4.5 3.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1955 1956 6 47 潟 ZEON LION ORICO 20 Sumitomo Bakelite 26 29 NKK Sapporobeer 9 29 MITSUBISHI MATERIALS NIKON 44 Cosmo-oil Unitika Daihatsu Kansai Paint HOYA TOMOKU Superbag KURARAY TOSOH RASA Chisso Central Glass RIKEN Copal Royal Yomiuriland Nihonhousing 2%7.009.0011.0013.0015.0017.0019.001970 1980 1985 1988 1990 1991 現 1958 20 70 2 1970 1991 1.3 90 1995 1997 7 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004-2008 1 0 0 0 2 1 3 5 5 0 2 0 1 20 10 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 10 2 13 0 0 27 0 0 1 4 4 4 14 25 29 12 41 0 0 134 1 1 2 4 6 5 17 30 44 14 56 0 1 181 15-20 2003-2008 20 90 1995 1991 10 1992 1994 12 1995 COSMO 1995 6 8 7 1990 3 20 80 1995 75%60%3.50 0.53 1.70 0.68 0.68 GDP 1998 1999 11 3 3M TIBOR-3M LIBOR bp Ito Harada 2005 2.2.1 1987 2 2.5%1989 4 1985 9 22 5 G5 5 232/1987 121/G5 1980 20 80 1985 OPEC 1985 12-1986 3 OPEC 250 31.3/10/1989 1985 Table_PicPe 12 4%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.0010.0001/195712/195711/195810/195909/196008/196107/196206/196305/196404/196503/196602/196701/196812/196811/196910/197009/197108/197207/197306/197405/197504/197603/197702/197801/197912/197911/198010/198109/198208/198307/198406/198505/198604/198703/198802/198901/199012/199011/199110/199209/199308/199407/199506/199605/199704/199803/1999 2.5%CEIC Table_PicPe 5 50.0000100.0000150.0000200.0000250.0000300.00001978-04-241979-04-241980-04-241981-04-241982-04-241983-04-241984-04-241985-04-241986-04-241987-04-241988-04-241989-04-241990-04-241991-04-241992-04-241993-04-241994-04-241995-04-241996-04-241997-04-241998-04-241999-04-242000-04-242001-04-242002-04-242003-04-242004-04-242005-04-242006-04-242007-04-242008-04-242009-04-242010-04-242011-04-242012-04-242013-04-242014-04-242015-04-242016-04-242017-04-242018-04-242019-04-242020-04-242021-04-242022-04-242023-04-24 WIND 1987 2 22 7 G5+G7 G7 1987 5 5 1 1986-1989 CPI 1%FED BIS FED 1 2 3 FED 13 FED FED BIS 2.2 GDP 20 80 8 1980-2005%/GDP 1980 173.3 52.4 27.2 6.0 11.4 21.3 0.719 100.0%30.3%15.7%3.5%6.6%12.3%1985 275.1 67.4 60.2 20.5 23.5 28.6 0.850 100.0%24.5%21.9%7.5%8.6%10.4%1990 408.8 61.5 114.7 45.4 48.5 65.3 0.929 100.0%15.0%28.1%11.1%11.9%16.0%1995 512.7 75.2 149.4 54.9 62.3 85.4 1.039 100.0%14.7%29.1%10.7%12.1%16.7%2000 475.3 69.5 130.5 41.7 59.6 96.0 0.945 100.0%14.6%27.5%8.8%12.5%20.2%2005 398.9 48.1 104.7 34.8 53.2 109.9 0.795 100.0%12.1%26.2%8.7%13.3%27.5%Lessons from Japans Banking Crisis,1991-2005 Bank of Japan ESRI Cabinet Office Government of Japan 80 2 3%7.75%3.25%7.75%1983-1985 1.5%5.5%6%1990 0.3%-2%3 5%-8%1987-1990 70.1 1983-1986 26.8 14 7.0 26.0 1987 6 20836 3340 2129 8460 2951 81%80 7 20 80 20 80 1991 6 15 7 GDP 1989 2400 GDP 6 611 GDP 142%7 1992 1991 1997 8 050100150200250300050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000 225:WIND 16 3.2022 2023 2022 1991 3.1 20 80 1986 1991 51%52%81%2017-2022 2017-2022 100 3351/6285/69%2183/2220/2%262/286/9%GDP 2017-2022 12%9 2010 3=100 0.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00400.00450.0019551957195919611963196519671969197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017201920212023:WIND 10/0.001000.002000.003000.004000.005000.006000.007000.002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023:100:100:100:WIND 17 90 20 11 90 20 144.90 80.0090.00100.00110.00120.00130.00140.00150.00160.00170.00180.001964-121966-091968-061970-031971-121973-091975-061977-031978-121980-091982-061984-031985-121987-091989-061991-031992-121994-091996-061998-031999-122001-092003-062005-032006-122008-092010-062012-032013-122015-092017-062019-032020-122022-09:WIND LTV 3.2 1964 OECD 20 90 20 90 9%1966 10.5 16.8 18.4 11.2 10.9 9.1 1967 11.6 16.9 19.0 12.3 12.6 9.6 1968 12.3 17.7 20.4 14.6 15.8 10.6 1969 13.1 19.5 21.3 15.5 15.7 10.9 1970 14.1 20.7 21.8 15.3 17.2 11.2 1971 14.7 22.7 22.6 17.0 15.2 11.2 1972 16.1 24.6 23.5 17.7 15.2 11.7 1973 17.3 26.0 24.4 18.8 15.2 12.2 1974 17.4 26.6 24.7 19.1 16.9 13.0 1975 17.2 26.4 24.7 19.2 16.8 13.2 18 81%42 7 18 12%46.86 11.08 9.61 0.34 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.0050.00 WIND 13%17.28 9.56 9.02 6.83 0.31 0.29 0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.0018.0020.00 WIND 14%30.33 20.37 12.55 5.93 3.73 3.71 3.25 1.24 0.91 0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.00 WIND 15%20.20 14.28 9.05 7.13 9.31 5.61 0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.00 WIND 3.3 2018 2017 2019 84.80 2017 100.4 16 GDP 2016 123%2019 19 86%37 39.14 2016 11.87 2008 16-50,000.000.0050,000.00100,000.00150,000.00200,000.00250,000.00300,000.00350,000.00400,000.00:WIND 3.4 20 80 1987 12 10 1988 7 8%1992 90“”“”20 17 0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-(%)-(%)BankFocus 4.21 Table_Analysts Table_Reports,1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%
