20240612_海通证券_纺织服装行业：从优衣库复盘窥见全球服装龙头的成长驱动_35页.pdf-资源下载-

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20240612_海通证券_纺织服装行业：从优衣库复盘窥见全球服装龙头的成长驱动_35页.pdf

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20240612_海通证券_纺织服装行业：从优衣库复盘窥见全球服装龙头的成长驱动_35页.pdf

SAC S0850519100002 SAC S0850516070002 2024 6 12 1.2.&3.4.2 ZXCXwPtOmPnMpRmPtOtMmNbR8Q6MsQmMtRnRfQnNrPkPpOmPbRrRzRxNqNpRwMtRmO 1998-2023+22.9%1.3 Wind SCMP 1.1&4 1984 FAST RETAILING 1984.6 1991.9 FAST RETAILING CO.,LTD.1994.7 2006.6 2000.6 2009.3 Theory 2014.3 HDR 1998.10 1900 2002.4 2006.11 2010.5 2002.9 2006.10 GU 050100150200250300350400FAST RETAILING Inditex H&M Gap k59KNQ8YUknKJx9z7iQYmJDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD66iZ27br3VqmZJZjIlqzzN 0200400600800100012001400160018000500010000150002000025000300001994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1.2 5 1994-2023 CAGR+16.5%2023 27666 192.8 50000 100000 1984-1998 1999-2005 ABC SPA 2006-2011 2012-CAGR+16.5%CAGR+25.7%CAGR+23.0%CAGR+12.8%CAGR+10.4%SCMP 1.3 CAGR+19%6 1995 194 2023 14364 CAGR+16.6%2000 ABC SPA 50%1995 21 2023 2962 CAGR+19.3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1.2.1.&2.0500010000150002000025000300003500040000450000200040006000800010000120001400016000 225 Wind Bloomberg 1.4 7 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1998-2023 1%1987%8%-48%-28%56%20%48%-1%-30%63%35%-26%8%56%99%1%-3%-2%7%26%15%42%-29%23%30%22.9%225-7%37%-27%-24%-19%24%8%40%7%-11%-42%19%-3%-17%23%57%7%9%0%19%-12%18%16%5%-9%28%3.1%1998-2023 212.2 22.9%225 2.2 3.1%25 18 15 1999 2012 2020 1998.12 52.87 1999.12 1103.17 2011.12 1485.03 2012.12 2316.65 2013.12 4603.60 2019.12 6894.79 2020.12 9808.63 0204060801001201400200040006000800010000120001400016000 PE Forward 1 Year Wind Bloomberg 1.5 8 2000 10 1998 ABC 2000 SPA 2000 2001 406%72%2002 2004-2012 25 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1%1987%8%-48%-28%56%20%48%-1%-30%63%35%-26%8%56%99%1%-3%-2%7%26%15%42%-29%23%30%225-7%37%-27%-24%-19%24%8%40%7%-11%-42%19%-3%-17%23%57%7%9%0%19%-12%18%16%5%-9%28%11%34%106%83%-18%-10%10%13%17%17%12%17%19%1%13%23%21%22%6%4%14%8%-12%6%8%20%8%133%406%72%-53%-26%50%9%20%-21%37%14%24%-12%32%26%-18%48%-56%148%30%5%-44%88%61%8%2012 40 2012-2015 CAGR+22%CAGR+15%2016 1 2 3 4 2016 3 35 2012 35 1 2000 10 PE 2 2004-2012 25 PE 3 2012 35 PE 0204060801001201400200040006000800010000120001400016000 PE Forward 1 Year 1.5 9 2000 10 1998 ABC 2000 SPA 2000 2001 406%72%2002 2004-2012 25 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1%1987%8%-48%-28%56%20%48%-1%-30%63%35%-26%8%56%99%1%-3%-2%7%26%15%42%-29%23%30%225-7%37%-27%-24%-19%24%8%40%7%-11%-42%19%-3%-17%23%57%7%9%0%19%-12%18%16%5%-9%28%11%34%106%83%-18%-10%10%13%17%17%12%17%19%1%13%23%21%22%6%4%14%8%-12%6%8%20%8%133%406%72%-53%-26%50%9%20%-21%37%14%24%-12%32%26%-18%48%-56%148%30%5%-44%88%61%8%2012 40 2012-2015 CAGR+22%CAGR+15%2016 1 2 3 4 2016 3 35 2012 35 Wind Bloomberg Wind Bloomberg 1.6 10 150-300 H&M Gap CAGR CAGR+7.6%FAST RETAILING Inditex H&M Gap 1984 1975 1968 1969 2002 192.4 304.7 226.6 158.1 29.4 CAGR-2.8%4.2%-0.9%-1.5%-0.9%15.9 34.9 8.0 1.5 3.7 CAGR 7.6%3.2%-11.3%/-2.4%8.3%11.4%3.5%0.9%12.6%2023 99.6%80.6%93.5%72.0%24.5%2023 52.0%85.2%35.5%12.9%1.3%2023 0.84 1.09 1.32 1.29 0.64 P/E Forward 1 Year 38.0 23.5 21.0 14.7 13.4 EV/EBITDA Forward 1 Year 18.6 12.4 8.3 5.9 7.6 2023 2024-5-27 2.&11-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 GDP Wind SCMP 2.1 12 1984 1985 90 20 90 Wind 2.2 13 2000 Q1 5.1%2024Q1 3.1%2000 54162.8 2023 49811.4 8.0%01000020000300004000050000600007000080000900000.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.90/0%1%2%3%4%5%6%0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000-062001-062002-062003-062004-062005-062006-062007-062008-062009-062010-062011-062012-062013-062014-062015-062016-062017-062018-062019-062020-062021-062022-062023-06%Wind Cambridge University Press EU-Japan Centre 2.3 14/1991 2023/57.4%/73.3%90 Renown/0100000020000003000000400000050000006000000700000080000009000000100000001980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022 1985 2019()()Top1 Renown 2201.67 Uniqlo 8729.57 Top2 Kashiyama 1759.54 Shimamura 5160.68 Top3 Sanyo Shokai 892.36 Zozo 3174.23 Wind 2.4 15 90 GDP 01000020000300004000050000600000%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%19601966197219781984199019962002200820142020 65%GDP 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%1960196519701975198019851990199520002005201020152020&1984-1998 1999-2005 2006-2011 2012 3.16 SCMP 3.1 1984-1998 17 1994-1998/CAGR 25.7%/29.1%1000 1900 2900 0500100015002000250030003500 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%01002003004005006007008009001994 1995 1996 1997 1998/yoy%yoy%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 yoy yoy Wind SCMP 3.1 1984-1998 18 90-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0100002000030000400005000060000 yoy%3.2 1999-2005 19 1995 1998 ABC All Better Change 2000 Gap SPA ABC Gap SPA SPA SKU 1.140 40 2.3.4.5.6.3.2 1999-2005 20 2000 5.3 83.8%2001 8.1 90 2.7 21 5.3 40%10%45%15%&01002003004005006007008009000500100015002000250030003500400045001994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005/0%10%20%30%40%50%60%1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 SCMP 3.3 2006-2011 21 2005 2006 020040060080010001200020406080100120140160180/HEATTECH 1998 2003 Toray 1 2 1900 1 Ultra Light AIRism 2009 2012 Toray 1 100 1 3.3 2006-2011 22 2006 5.5 2011 6.9 25.9%2011 2013 853 2017 8107 9000 1000-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%02004006008001000120014002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 yoy%020040060080010001200010002000300040005000600070008000900010000/3.4 2012 23 2011-2023/CAGR+3.3%/+25.5%2018 8963 2019 2019-2023 CAGR+8.8%CAGR+0.5%2023 27%30%vs vs 020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 38%27%19%7%8%1%2023 050010001500200025002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 34%30%22%6%8%2023 3.4 2012 24 2012-2019 80 2014 5.56 ABC SPA 2014 010002000300040005000600070000200400600800100012002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2014/1.4 6 2259.2 106.9 374 2858.4 3.4 2012 25 2001 9 2003 21 2004 3 2003 1 2 3 Zara H&M Gap 0102030405060 02004006008001000050100150200 02004006008001000050100150200 3.4 2012 26 2006 2010 2012 80 0102030405060 2006 2007 2009 2009 2010 2011 2011 2013 2014 2018 3.4 2012 27 2022 1 2 3 15.5%18.6%10.0%9.4%16.8%17.4%12.9%14.3%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%2022 2023 4.28 4.1 29 30 2023 269.3 2023 2023 1683 681 1175 1031 5194 7256 2556-16.3%-2.5%-20.1%3.5%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%0100020003000400050006000700080009000 yoy%269.3 201.8 278.4 2416.5 39.9%26.5%16.2%6.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%050010001500200025003000/yoy%DT 4.2 30 1998 HEATTECH Ultra Light AIRism TOP10 153%33%222%16%11%24%41%202%-11%27%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%2022 12 2023 11 BALA-FIT WARM-PEACE NOWRE SocialBeta 4.3 31 KAWS IP AIGC T Leo&Steph IP A IP IP/KAWS/UNDERCOVER JW Anderson Euromonitor 4.4 32 2028 25659.0 2023-2028 CAGR+3.5%2023-2028/3.5%3.9%0.6%3.2%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%050001000015000200002500030000 2023 2028 2023-2028CAGR%68.3 109.2 159.3 0.9 2.2 2.7 60.0%45.8%154.1%24.0%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%0204060801001201401601802021 2022 2023 yoy%yoy%33 SAC S0850519100002 SAC S0850516070002 021-23154510 021-23219407 Email Email 34 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%35

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