20240612_东方证券_酒饮行业长期投资逻辑专题研究：精选经营向上、份额提升、估值低位具备长期投资价值的酒企_19页.pdf
|/16 1 PE 2 24 5 17 3.6%1.7%1.7%19 70%9%51%30%3 23(600809)(000568)(600702)(600779)(000799)2023/2024 06 12 S0860517090002 021-63325888*6079 S0860519080001+2024-06-10 2024-06-02 2.4.10 2.1.10 2.2.11.13 3.1.14 3.2.15 3.3.16.16.16 YWFUuNrMoNoPtNsRrMoRpO6McM9PoMnNpNmQeRoOqOkPoPoN7NqQyQwMnQoRNZnPpO 3 1.5 2.5 3.6 4 1573 30.7 5“”.8 6.10 7.10 8 2023.10 9 PE.11 10.11 11.11 12 PE.12 13.13 14 23.16 15.16 1 2021.13 2 PE.14 3 PE.14 4.15 5.15 6.15 4 5 17 3000 1 300-800 100-300 1573 1573 1573 25 400 60 23 60 20%20 24Q1 60 30%+60 23 24Q1 f/wXXTQkOXiwvxZIvunV65DzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD67N9hngb8DrVE0wkff7d6T 5+10-60 100 150 1573 60 1 20 30 20&18 21 23 20 20 30 20 2 6 30 24 30 30 30 20 20 20 300-400 20 23-24 20 20 20+300-400 200 100-200 200-300 24 5 24H2 6 24 50 24 300-400 100 3 7 2 16 17 22 22H1“”“”24 1573 875 24 30 24 5 1573 30%15-20%1.5-2 1.5 4 1573 30 0%10%20%30%40%50%0501001502002503003502021 2022 2023 2024E 8 Wind 20 23 24 20 20 30“”5 3 7008009001,000:1573:():30()9 2023-2024 2024 2024 2024 2 20%+19-23 CAGR 20%35%20 10 7 22 23 50%+30%+1 2 10%23Q4 3 4 B C 24 20%24 40%30%20%24 20%10 6 7 2.1/T68 23 95%89%T68 23 10%24 93%163%23 12 24 4 18 109%8 2023 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.02019Y 2020Y 2021Y 2022Y 2023Y 2024Q1 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.02019Y 2020Y 2021Y 2022Y 2023Y 2024Q1 11 2.2 2018 3 2018-2020 9 PE 84 21 1 2 ST 2020-2021 PE 130 ST 2022 1 22 2 15 9 PE Wind PE=/10 11 10.1%28.6%2.1%2.1%2.1%4.4%3.5%0.5%46.5%12 2016 4 1 2016-2017 T1 2 2018-2020 3 2020-2021 21 4 2022 12 PE Wind PE=/16-20 18 2022 16-20-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.00 050010001500200025002020 2021 2022 2023 13 21 2021 600-700 200 24%500-700 21 13 Wind 1 2021 2021 3,853 755 690 586 1,290 556 682 24 5 31 2,944 244 182 226 1,319 561 669-24%-68%-74%-61%2%1%-2%Wind 1 PE 2 24 5 17 3.6%1.7%1.7%19 70%9%51%30%3 23 01002003004005006007008009001,000 14 3.1 PE 24 5 31 12 15 20 11 14 13 19 4%6%2%3%5%2 PE 12 22 16 15 20 11 14 29 13 2019 59 54 63 1 0 3 78 57 98 42 19 12 13 15 10 13 14 11 29 21 25 32 23 22 27 19 9%9%4%6%2%3%17%5%2014 59 54 63 1 0 3 1 7 0 91 98 42 8 5 6 8 10 13 14 7 28 20 23 31 25 23 28 18 28%22%16%13%1%1%17%16%2009 59 54 63 1 0 3 1 7 0 91 98 42 8 5 6 8 10 12 10 6 27 20 22 29 26 23 29 19 28%22%16%13%1%4%21%17%资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所（注：估值时 间为 2024 年 5 月 31 日）3 PE 12 20 16 12 17 23 20 22 23 2019 52 40 25 36 54 40 71 71 13 12 10 12 14 10 13 13 32 21 16 22 29 23 29 27 20%14%1 1%21%22%32%15%18%2014 52 40 58 70 54 40 71 71 11 12 10 12 12 9 12 13 29 20 16 22 26 23 30 27 23%14%4%9%26%35%16%18%2009 69 40 58 70 54 44 82 71 10 12 10 12 11 9 12 13 29 20 16 22 25 23 30 27 18%14%4%9%27%31%13%18%资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所（注：估值时 间为 2024 年 5 月 31 日）15 CAGR PE-TTM CAGR PE-TTM 4 CAGR 20-23%CAGR 20-23%ROE(23%)PE-TTM 32 50 43 26 16 4 13 57 38 45 26 14 18 20 32 18 12 11 48 19 Wind CAGR 2020-2023 ROE 2023,PE-TTM 24 5 23 PE 3.2“”24 5 17 2.9%3.6%1.7%1.7%19 70%9%51%30%5 2019 3.8%11.3%3.4%5.3%2019 0.8%2.9%0.0%0.1%2.9%3.6%1.7%1.7%2019 70.2%9.0%51.3%30.1%Wind 2024 5 17/19 6 2019 9.6%11.4%4.1%2.3%3.3%6.1%11.3%4.7%3.8%16 2019 6.4%4.2%1.9%0.5%0.2%1.6%2.1%0.4%0.4%7.4%5.6%3.1%1.6%1.8%2.8%3.1%4.3%2.0%2019 29.1%19.9%54.7%60.9%51.9%25.7%10.3%92.0%47.0%资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所（截至 2024 年 5 月 23 日）3.3 2023 19.0pct 10.5pct 5.0pct 1.0pct 14 23 15 Wind Wind 2023 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%()2023230.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%()2024-05-23 2023 17 18 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer
