20240611_国信证券_家用电器行业专题：地产政策频出托底基本面大家电估值有望提振_20页.pdf
|2024 6 11 0755-S09805201100040755-S09805201200040755-S0980523020001 4 5 17 2012-2023 20%-30%60%YWBYuNrMpMpOpRsRrMrOnM8OdNaQsQnNpNmQkPnNoQkPpOtRbRnNzRuOmQqRvPpNyR 01 02 03 01cuNqGfSMhJJ03yNpPw4PS5DzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD40M0IcgMz0WQYds9Os4n80 5 4 5 17 1 3000 2 20%15%30%25%2 0.25 3 1 2008 10 20%0.7 2 2014 9 930 30%0.7 3000 3000 2023 1 1000 20%15%30%25%8 20%30%LPR-20BP LPR+20BP 0.25 5 2.85%LPR 3.95%0.72 4 5 9 6 2001-2022/0.36/0.35/0.45/0.30/0.51 0.49/0.03/0.25/0.17/0.66 wind-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%wind 20%-30%50%+7 20%-30%60%100%wind 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 764 749 766 705 746 677 623 645 598 647 650 762 314 310 358 343 360 419 420 426 420 393 414 596 1078 1059 1124 1048 1106 1096 1043 1071 1018 1040 1064 1358 5716 6235 7017 6269 6046 9218 9638 9572 8338 8796 8754 9960-6%9%13%-11%-4%52%5%-1%-13%6%0%14%1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 1768 1824 2032 1990 2204 2294 2292 2353 2237 2285 2339 2985 31%29%29%32%36%25%24%25%27%26%27%30%28%5567 5577 5277 4894 4731 4480 4310 4338 4270 4265 4123 4348-6%0%-5%-7%-3%-5%-4%1%-2%0%-3%5%1078 1059 1124 1048 1106 1096 1043 1071 1018 1040 1064 1358 19%19%21%21%23%24%24%25%24%24%26%31%24%3481 3769 3763 3905 4115 4414 4533 4493 4291 4453 4077 4200 0%8%0%4%5%7%3%-1%-4%4%-8%3%1078 1059 1124 1048 1106 1096 1043 1071 1018 1040 1064 1358 31%28%30%27%27%25%23%24%24%23%26%32%27%1400 1550 1668 1582 1793 1887 1962 1944 1835 1787 1657 1732 11%8%-5%13%5%4%-1%-6%-3%-7%4%1078 1059 1124 1048 1106 1096 1043 1071 1018 1040 1064 1358 77%68%67%66%62%58%53%55%55%58%64%78%64%8 2024 4/-25.6%/-21.0%/-23.8%2024 1-4/+16.1%/+9.0%/+5.0%/-1.3%wind 2024 1-4 2024-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2021 2022 2023 2024M1-M4+02 010203040506070-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%PE(TTM)2006 9 2007 2008 2014 2021/2012 2015 2022,/wind 2014 9 0102030405060-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%PE(TTM)2011-2013 2023 2010 2014 9 2021-2023 wind 2014 9/-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2018 2014 2017 2022 3 1 wind-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%1 1 2010 2017 2022 2012-2015 2018-2019 2021 wind 14 2017 96%2017-2019 30%2023 70%95%10%2019-2021 18%-20%20%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0501001502002503003502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 8.3%13.9%18.4%19.6%18.5%10.2%6.2%0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002503003502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 97%3%2023 15 2008 2014-2015 2008 2014-2015 2014-2017 2016 2014 9-2016 12 71%116%42%26%55%64%2014 9-2017 12 50%wind 2014-2015 2014-2015 wind 050001000015000200002500030000-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%-10%40%90%140%190%240%290%2014 9-2016 12 2014 9-2017 12 71%42%26%165%70%58%116%55%64%243%84%86%300 35%45%-1%65%60%13%03 wind PE PEG2019 TTM 24E 25E 26E 24E 25E 26E 24E 23.57 224 19.1 20.8 22.5 11.7 10.7 9.9 1.3 6.7%65.16 4,545 372 409 450 12.2 11.1 10.1 1.2 25.4%30.62 2,707 188 211 238 14.4 12.8 11.4 1.2 52.4%41.1 2,315 323 347 368 7.2 6.7 6.3 1.1 17.5%38.85 498 32.6 36.5 40.3 15.3 13.7 12.4 1.4 84.0%2024 6 12 6 12 A 300 000300.SH 899001.CSI(HSI.HI)500(SPX.GI)IXIC.GI 10%10%10%10%10%10%125 36 518046 0755-82130833 1199 1 12 200135 6 9 100032
