沪 广 深 限 购 限 贷 相 继 落 地；5 月 百 强 房 企 销 售 环 比 微 增 建筑材料 2024 年 6 月 2 日 证 券 研 究 报 告/行业周报 S0740519070002 Email S0740522040003 Email S0740521120003 Email Email Table_Profit 82()8257()6700 Table_QuotePic-Table_Report 1 20240526 2 20240521 3 20240517 Table_Finance()EPS PE PB 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 32.32 35.2 42.6 50.7 55.6 15.5 12.8 10.8 9.8 2.3 24.01 104.3 150.4 173.4/12.2 8.5 7.3/0.7 11.46 30.4 26.4 33.7 41.6 15.1 17.4 13.6 11.0 1.6 17.02 14.3 14.6 15.8 17.9 18.9 18.5 17.2 15.1 6.1 43.24 1.7 6.5 8.6 11.0 131.0 35.2 26.4 20.7 9.1 14.83 27.6 32.3 37.7/11.2 9.6 8.2/1.1 7.56 17.5 20.5 23.9 26.6 11.6 10.0 8.5 7.6 1.5 14.75 22.7 29.9 36.1 43.0 16.4 12.4 10.3 8.6 1.4 38.02 3.2 5.4 7.4/37.6 22.8 16.5/2.5 2024 5 31 1 517 C 2 5 29 2024-2025 2025 18 30%20%3 5 2024 5 TOP100 3224.1+3.4%-33.6%1.4-44.3%2.5 517 2 C 23 C 23/+12.2%/+11.3%/+10%/+5.2%23 16 23 36.6 40.7%C B 23 60%B C+5 31 PB 0.71X 0.68X 0.78%13.46%2.3%20-60/15-20/53%1+0.7pcts-6.6pcts-1.2pcts-7.5pcts-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%24/1 24/2 24/3 24/4 24/5()300-2-3000 24H2+2400tex 3900/-320 G75 8800/+800 3.6-3.8/24 4.5%-1.0%24 23Q3-24Q4+2.4/-3.4/+2.6/+1.5/+7.4/+8.4/23Q3-24Q4+1.1/+0/-0.4/-1.8/+0.8/+0.4/24 5 59.4-1.0%24Q1 200 3 4 PB+A 2 6 1677/-15 5381+13 17.3 t/d+0.06 1/23 24 23 24 A a.3.2/2.0mm 25.5/17.50/-0.25/-0.25 24.5+1.6 11.3 t/d+0.12+23 24 A b.TCO GW TCO 1+2 15 3+XVEVxOmRnOnMqOmPqNrOpObRaO8OmOmMsQmQfQpPrPeRnNsO6MpPyRxNpPtQvPrRoM-3-.-5-.-6-.-8-.-14-.-15-.-16-.-18-1.-5-2.-5-3.-5-4.-6-5/.-6-6 2 400t ex/.-7-7 S M C 2 400t ex/.-7-8 OC/.-7-9 G 75/.-7-10 PPI.-7-11/.-7-12/.-8-13 G D P(%).-8-14 P O 42.5/.-9-15 P O 42.5/.-9-16 P O 42.5/.-9-17 P O 42.5/.-9-18 P O 42.5/.-9-19 P O 42.5/.-9-20 P O 42.5/.-10-21 P O 42.5/.-10-22 P O 42.5/.-10-23 P O 42.5/.-10-24%.-10-25%.-10-4-26%.-11-27%.-11-28%.-11-29%.-11-30%.-11-31%.-11-32%.-12-33%.-12-34%.-12-35%.-12-36%.-12-37%.-12-38%.-13-39%.-13-40.-13-41/.-13-42/.-14-43.-14-44.-15-45.-15-46.-15-47 PPI.-15-48 3.2/2.0mm/.-16-49.-16-50 t/d.-16-51/.-16-52/.-16-53/.-17-54/.-17-55 P V C/.-17-56 H D P E.-17-57 PP-R/.-17-58/.-17-nb2/PSbGnifWhLjayM21ipDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD4dgSzAuO/OsW+/JbtSBBdV-5-2024/5/24-2024/5/31 SW-4.62%300-0.6%-4.02%ST WIND WIND 3 WIND 2024 5 24-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%24/1 24/2 24/3 24/4 24/5()A 3008%2%1%0%-1%9%2%1%1%0%-41%-15%-26%11%-61%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%ST 本年涨跌幅 本周涨跌幅 PB PE(TTM)ROE 本年涨跌幅 本周涨跌幅 PB PE(TTM)ROE电子-11.7%2.7%2.7 59.9 4.5%国防军工-6.8%2.6%2.7 65.4 4.1%煤炭 17.6%2.0%1.7 13.4 12.7%汽车-0.8%1.9%2.0 26.1 7.7%有色金属 13.5%0.8%2.3 23.3 9.9%电力及公用事业 9.2%0.6%1.8 19.3 9.3%计算机-17.6%0.4%3.0 89.9 3.3%纺织服装-7.1%0.3%1.7 23.1 7.4%电力设备及新能源-2.8%0.1%2.3 27.2 8.5%石油石化 11.8%0.1%1.4 12.7 11.0%机械-5.7%0.0%2.1 30.5 6.9%钢铁 0.5%-0.2%1.0 34.9 2.9%基础化工-5.1%-0.4%2.0 32.0 6.3%交通运输 8.4%-0.5%1.4 17.6 8.0%通信 0.4%-0.5%1.7 20.4 8.3%银行 19.5%-0.6%0.6 5.6 10.7%非银行金融-2.3%-0.6%1.2 18.4 6.5%商贸零售-10.6%-0.8%1.3 58.7 2.2%医药-12.9%-0.8%2.8 38.3 7.3%家电 16.7%-1.2%2.7 15.7 17.2%消费者服务-13.4%-1.3%2.6 40.2 6.5%传媒-14.6%-1.5%2.0 37.1 5.4%食品饮料-3.8%-2.2%4.9 24.1 20.3%建筑-1.7%-2.3%0.8 9.0 8.9%综合-25.6%-2.3%1.4 亏损 亏损轻工制造-9.0%-2.4%1.8 26.9 6.7%农林牧渔-2.2%-3.1%2.7 亏损 亏损建材-5.2%-4.1%1.1 23.5 4.7%房地产-7.7%-4.6%0.7 亏损 亏损 1 2 -6-5 30 2400tex 3800-4000/3862.75/3862.75/4.59%2400tex 3800-4000/2400texSMC 4500-5000/2400tex 5600-6700/2400tex 4800-5000/2400tex 4800-5000/2000tex 4000-4300/G75 8600-8900/7628 3.6-3.8/PCB 4 5/01020304050607080901002017/072017/122018/052018/102019/032019/082020/012020/062020/112021/042021/092022/022022/072022/122023/052023/102024/03 250030003500400045005000550060006500/2400tex 2400tex 2400tex -7-6 2 400t ex/7 S M C 2 400t ex/8 OC/9 G 75/10 PPI 11/50006000700080009000100001100017-0117-0718-0118-0719-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-0123-0724-01 2400tex/OC 300040005000600070008000900010000SMC 2400tex/OC 80009000100001100012000130001400015000160001700015002500350045005500650075008500950018-01 19-01 20-01 21-01 22-01 23-01 24-01(4mm)1200 2400tex()700090001100013000150001700019000 6070809010011012013014-0114-0915-0516-0116-0917-0518-0118-0919-0520-0120-0921-0522-0122-0923-0524-01PPI%15018021024027030033001000200030004000500060007000800014-01 15-11 17-09 19-07 21-05 23-03:99.95%:99.95%-8-12/13 G D P(%)WIND=100 2.3%20-60/15-20/53%1 2024 5 31+0.7pct-6.6pct 0.9pct 2.5pct 1.3pct 2.7pct 0.21.7pct 0.9pct 4.429.4pct 75.00%47.50%2024 5 31-1.2pct-7.5pct 1.3pct 1.7pct 0.3pct 0.65.5pct 59.38%37.50%6000700080009000100001100012000130001400015000():UPR(196):():UPR(196):-15-12-9-6-3036912151896-0198-0100-0102-0104-0106-0108-0110-0112-0114-0116-0118-0120-0122-0124-01 -9-14 P O 42.5/15 P O 42.5/16 P O 42.5/17 P O 42.5/18 P O 42.5/19 P O 42.5/3003504004505005506006500101 0303 0503 0703 0902 1102 P O 42.5/2020 2021 2022 2023 20243003504004505005506000101 0303 0503 0703 0902 1102 P O 42.5/2020 2021 2022 2023 20242803804805806800101 0303 0503 0703 0902 1102 P O 42.5/2020 2021 2022 2023 20243003504004505005506006507000101 0303 0503 0703 0902 1102 P O 42.5/2020 2021 2022 2023 20243003504004505005506006507007500101 0303 0503 0703 0902 1102 P O 42.5/2020 2021 2022 2023 20243003504004505005506006500101 0303 0503 0703 0902 1102 P O 42.5/2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-10-20 P O 42.5/21 P O 42.5/22 P O 42.5/23 P O 42.5/24%25%2803303804304805305800101 0303 0503 0703 0902 1102 P O 42.5/2020 2021 2022 2023 20243504004505005506006500101 0303 0503 0703 0902 1102 P O 42.5/2020 2021 2022 2023 20242803303804304805305806306807300101 0303 0503 0703 0902 1102 P O 42.5/2020 2021 2022 2023 20242003004005006007008000101 0303 0503 0703 0902 1102 P O 42.5/2020 2021 2022 2023 20244050607080900101 0303 0503 0703 0902 1102%2020 2021 2022 2023 2024304050607080900101 0303 0503 0703 0902 1102%2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-11-26%27%28%29%30%31%20304050607080900101 0303 0503 0703 0902 1102%2020 2021 2022 2023 20243040506070800101 0303 0503 0703 0902 1102%2020 2021 2022 2023 2024304050607080900101 0303 0503 0703 0902 1102%2020 2021 2022 2023 20244050607080900101 0303 0503 0703 0902 1102%2020 2021 2022 2023 2024304050607080900101 0303 0503 0703 0902 1102%2020 2021 2022 2023 2024304050607080900101 0303 0503 0703 0902 1102%2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-12-32%33%34%35%36%37%0204060801000101 0303 0505 0709 0908 1108%2020 2021 2022 2023 20240204060801000101 0303 0505 0709 0908 1108%2020 2021 2022 2023 202401020304050607080900101 0303 0505 0709 0908 1108%2020 2021 2022 2023 20240204060801001200101 0303 0505 0709 0908 1108%2020 2021 2022 2023 20240204060801001200101 0303 0505 0709 0908 1108%2020 2021 2022 2023 20240204060801001200101 0303 0505 0709 0908 1108%2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-13-38%39%40 41/0204060801001200101 0303 0505 0709 0908 1108%2020 2021 2022 2023 202401020304050607080900101 0303 0505 0709 0908 1108%2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-35-15525456505000010000015000020000025000030000009 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24:%200250300350400450500550600650:P.O42.5:-14-1/1 313 254 172865 600 1 2 2 3 2150-2300/2150-2300/5 30 2190/5 23 2%2300-2450/42/43 22 1000150020002500300035000101 0303 0503 0703 0902 11022020 2021 2022 2023 202402000400060008000100000101 0303 0503 0703 0902 11022020 2021 2022 2023 2024-15-44 45 WIND WIND 46 47 PPI 22=100 2020 11 2.0mm 17.50/1.41%3.2mm 25.50/0.97%550 112910/1.07%28.70%0.12 24.45 7.07 0.29 051015202530350101 0303 0503 0703 0902 11022021 2022 2023 202401002003004005006007000101 0303 0503 0703 0902 11022021 2022 2023 20246000080000100000120000140000160000180000200000201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024 t/d 708090100110120130140PPI:%-16-48 3.2/2.0mm/49 50 t/d 51/52/WIND WIND 152025303540452019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20243.2mm 2.0mm05101520253035-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%020000400006000080000100000120000 t/d 02040608010012014016007-07 09-07 11-07 13-07 15-07 17-07 19-07 21-07 23-07WTI/20040060080010001200140016001800200007-07 10-07 13-07 16-07 19-07 22-07 CFR/CFR/-17-53/54/55 P V C/56 H D P E 57 PP-R/58/WIND 0100020003000400050006000沥青期货结算价（元/吨）50100150200250300350400450胶合板期货结算价（元/张）400060008000100001200014000PVC 期货结算价（元/吨）7000800090001000011000120001300014000HDPE 市场价（元/吨）80009000100001100012000130001400015000PP-R(,0.36,C4220)/PP-R(,0.36,B8101)/900011000130001500017000190002100023000:():-18-2B -19-612 15%612 5%15%612-10%+5%612 10%612 10%612-10%+10%612 10%612 A 300 500