20240602_中泰证券_计算机行业：中泰科技AI终端落地加速关注AI+OS投资机会_17页.pdf
AI AI+OS/2024 06 02 Table_Title S0740524030002 Email Table_Profit 332()30891.77()16878.16 Table_QuotePic-Table_Report AI+AI AI iPhone WWDC 2024 6 10 14 AI ios ios ChatGPT Siri AI AI 2027 OPPO VIVO AI 1 OpenELM 2 AI AI App Store 3 Apple A17 Pro AI 9300 8 Gen3 AIPC AI AI PC PC 1 Copilot+PC AI GPT-4o Copilot+PC AI Agent 2 Windows Copilot+PC 3 M4 AI 4 AI PC AI PC AIPC PC Windows AI PC AI PC 1 AIPC CPU+GPU+NPU”AMD NPU SoC 2 AI+OS AI OS AI 1+/Windows 2 -2-1.AI.-3-2.AI iPhone.-4-2.1 AI.-4-2.2 AI.-7-2.3.-8-3.AIPC AI.-10-3.1 AI PC PC.-10-3.2 PC AIPC.-12-3.3 AIPC.-14-4.-15-.-16-1ZEVvMrMtQrQoQtQmRsNmN7N9R6MtRqQpNrNfQrRoQiNoOtP9PqQzQvPpPoMwMoMpP-3-1.-4-2 AI.-4-3 Siri.-5-4 iOS 18 AI.-5-5.-6-6 CarPlay.-6-7 visionOS.-6-8 AI%.-7-9 AI.-7-10 OpenELM.-8-11 OpenELM 1.08B 3.04B.-8-12 AI.-9-13 AI.-9-14 Apple A17 Pro CPU.-10-15 Apple A17 Pro GPU.-10-16 Apple A17 Pro AI 9300 8 Gen3-10-17 Apple A17 Pro AI 9300 8 Gen3-10-18 Copilot+PC.-11-19 Copilot+PC MacBook Air.-11-20 Copilot.-11-21 Copilot Studio Copilot.-11-22 M4.-12-23.-12-24 AI PC.-12-25 PC.-13-26 PC.-13-27 PC AI.-13-28 AI PC.-14-29 AI PC.-14-30 AI PC.-14-31 Recall.-15-32 Cocreator.-15-4-1.AI AI AI AI AR/VR+AI 2020 8,350 2023 14,031 2024 15,033 2023 AI 41%2027 79%1 2 AI IDC IDC 2.AI iPhone 2.1 AI WWDC 2024 6 10 14 ios Worldwide Developers Conference iOS 18 iPadOS 18 macOS 15 tvOS 18 watchOS 11 visionOS 2 ios ChatGPT Siri AI OpenAI ChatGPT iOS 18 Siri 2.0 1 Siri Siri 2.0 VI8A6sJ08Vr2hm8aGk0TbJDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD6FylHMzVOjnhUtJY6sygEd-5-Siri iPhone Siri AI 3 Siri Siri Apple Watch Apple TV Siri-2 AI iOS 18 AI Safari 4 iOS 18 AI iOS 18 AI AI AI AI App Clean Up AI AI Safari Safari AI Ajax Generative Playground AI iMessage AI-2024 -6-visionOS iPhone iPad CarPlay CarPlay CarPlay APP visionOS 1 app 2“”“”“”iPad iPhone 5 6 CarPlay 7 visionOS -7-2.2 AI AI 2027 2023 vivo OPPO AI Counterpoint Canalys AI 2024 11%2027 43%2024 1.29 2027 5.38 AI 8 AI%Counterpoint Canalys AI AI AI API AI Galaxy S24 9 AI AI AI(Siri)Spotlight Safari“”Clean Up OpenAI iPhone 16 2024 9 AI AI Gemini Galaxy S24 2024 年 1 月 18日 AI AI AI Gemini Pixel 8a 2024 年 5 月 14日 OPPO AI AI AI OPPO Reno12 2024 年 5 月 31日 vivo AI AI AI vivo S9 2024 年 5 月 30日 AI AI AI Mate70 2024 年 5 月 31日 36 1.292.073.345.3811.00%17.33%27.30%43.00%0%10%20%30%40%50%024681012142024E 2025E 2026E 2027E AI%-8-2.3 OpenELM OpenELM 0.27B/0.45B/1.1B/3B AI OpenELM:An Efficient Language Model Family with Open Training and Inference Framework OpenELM 1.08B 3.04B MobiLlama 1.26B OLMo 1.18B 10 OpenELM AI Magic6 Pro 7B 14 Ultra MiLM 1.3B vivo X100 Pro 7B OPPO Find X7 Ultra AndesGPT 7B OpenELM 0.27B/0.45B/1.1B/3B 36-MicroComputer 11 OpenELM 1.08B 3.04B OpenELM:An Efficient Language Model Family with Open Training and Inference Framework AI AI App Store AI AI iOS AI AI APP WWDC24 AI Project Greymatter Safari Photos Notes AI iOS18 -9-12 AI AI AI 9300 8 Gen3 1 CPU Geekbench 5 Apple A17 Pro 2167 6342 9200+8 Gen 2 2 GPU Geekbench 5 Apple A17 Pro 64 8 Gen 2 GPU 9300 8 Gen 3 3 AI 9300 8 Gen3 AI Benchmark AI 9300 8 Gen3 3000 OPPO Find X7 vivo X100 Pro OPPO Find X7 Ultra Xiaomi 14 Pro Apple iPhone 15 Pro Apple A17 Pro 1000 13 AI Apple A series MediaTek Dimensity Qualcomm Snapdragon Apple A17 Pro 9300 8 Gen 3 23Q3 23Q4 23Q4 CPU 6 hybrid 2 A-Core 3.78 GHz 4 B-Core 2.11 GHz 8 hybrid 1 A-Core 3.25 GHz 3 B-Core 2.85 GHz 4 C-Core 2.00 GHz 8 hybrid 1 A-Core 3.40 GHz 5 B-Core 2.96 GHz 2 C-Core 2.27 GHz GPU 3 nm 6 24 6 GB 1.40GHz 4nm 12 1.00GHz 4nm 6GB 0.90GHz NPU 16 Neural cores 35 TOPS MediaTek APU 790 33 TOPS Hexagon NPU 34 TOPS CPU-Monkey -10-14 Apple A17 Pro CPU 15 Apple A17 Pro GPU iMobile iMobile 16 Apple A17 Pro AI 9300 8 Gen3 17 Apple A17 Pro AI 9300 8 Gen3 AI-Benchmark AI-Benchmark 3.AIPC AI 3.1 AI PC PC Copilot+PC AI 5 21 Build 2024 AIPC Copilot+PC Copilot+PC Snapdragon X Elite Plus NPU 40 TOPS M3 MacBook Air 58%15 20 OEM 碁 Copilot+PC 6 18 999 GPT-4o Copilot+PC AI Agent Copilot+PC Copilot Copilot GPT-4o AI Arm Windows 11 40 AI SLM Copilot Studio -11-Copilot Agent Copilot Agent 18 Copilot+PC 19 Copilot+PC MacBook Air 来源：微软 官网，中 泰证 券研 究所 来源：微软 官网，中 泰证 券研 究所 20 Copilot 21 Copilot Studio Copilot 来源：微软 官网，中 泰证 券研 究所 来源：微软 官网，中 泰证 券研 究所 Windows Copilot+PC Windows X Elite PC AI PC X Elite Windows M4 AI 5 7 M4 iPad Pro M4 3nm 280 120GB/s CPU 10 GPU 10 NPU 16 38 M4 AI AI -12-22 M4 来源：苹果 官网，中 泰证 券研 究所 AI PC 4 18 AI PC YOGA Book 9i AI YOGA Pro 16s AI YOGA Air 14 AI ThinkPad T14p AI Think Book 16p AI Pro 16 AI AI PC AI PPT AI AI 23 24 AI PC 来源：联想 官网，中 泰证 券研 究所 来源：联想 官网，中 泰证 券研 究所 3.2 PC AIPC PC 2020-2021 PC PC 3-5 -13-2024-2025 IDC 2024 PC 2.8%Canalys 2024 PC 8%2023 PC 1Q24 5.1%Counterpoint 25 PC 26 PC IDC IDC Windows Windows 10 2025 10 Win10 Win11 TPM 2.0 5 20%Windows Canalys 2.4 Win11 AI PC PC AI AI AI PC 27 PC AI IDC 0%2%4%6%8%10%01020304050602023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E PC%-14-AI PC AI PC 2024-2025 PC IDC 2024 AI PC 54.7%2025 74.6%Canalys 2024 AI PC 0.48 PC 18%2028 AI PC 2.05 2024-2028 CAGR 44%28 AI PC 29 AI PC 来源：Canalys、中泰 证券 研究 所 来源：IDC、中泰 证券 研究 所 3.3 AIPC CPU+GPU+NPU PC CPU+GPU PC AI PC AI AI AI PC CPU+GPU+NPU AMD NPU SoC 30 AI PC AMD M Ultra Ryzen Pro 8040 X M4 Ultra 9 185H 9 PRO 8945HS X Elite 24Q2 23Q4 23Q4 23Q4 CPU 3nm 10 7nm 16 22 24MB 5.1GHz 4nm 8 16 5.2GHz 24MB 4nm 12 3.8GHz 4.3GHz GPU 10 M2 4 8 2.35GHz 12 2800 MHz 4.6TFLOPS NPU 38 TOPS 34 TOPS 16 TOPS 39 TOPS 45 TOPS 128GB/s 96GB PCI 5.0 PCIe 4.0 256GB 64GB 136GB/s 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0510152025303540452023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027EAI PC%-15-来源：各公 司官 网，中泰 证券 研究 所 PC APP AI PC AI PC AI PC AI AI AI PPT Copilot+PC AI PC Copilot+PC AI PC Recall Copilot+PC Teams Outlook Cocreator Copilot Image Creator Cocreator Restyle Image APP AI Adobe CapCut AI APP NPU APP 40 31 Recall 32 Cocreator 来源：微软 官网，中 泰证 券研 究所 来源：微软 官网，中 泰证 券研 究所 4.AI+OS AI -16-OS AI 1+/Windows 2 AI+-17-612 15%612 5%15%612-10%+5%612 10%612 10%612-10%+10%612 10%612 A 300 500
