2022-2023硅料供需错配下的光伏主产业链回顾与展望电气设备行业动态研究报告.pdf
2022-2023 300 1M 3M 12M 16.08%0.60%10.13%300 7.94%1.01%-15.54%2022-06-17 EPS PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E601012.SH 60.85 1.68 1.86 2.36 50.8 32.7 25.8 002459.SZ 70.87 1.27 1.83 2.47 81.6 38.8 28.7 688223.SH 14.50 0.14 0.28 0.46 127.0 51.8 31.6 688599.SH 60.12 0.87 1.68 2.33 72.2 35.7 25.8 688559.SH 81.00 0.55 1.92 3.79 148.4 42.2 21.4 600732.SH 32.96-0.06 0.66 1.16-534.6 49.8 28.5 300118.SZ 29.15-0.05 1.25 1.71-620.9 23.3 17.0 Wind 34 1 2020 2 320GW 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 6 1.1 1.2 1.3 71.1 1 IRENA Future_of_Solar_PV_2019 2 LCOE CPIA 2022 3 2050 14000GW IRENA IRENA_World_Energy_Transitions_Outlook_2022 81.19 2045 2030 2045 2035 2045 2040 2050 2040 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2053 2050 2060 2050 2060 4 30 60 1 ENERGY&CLIMATE CPIA 30 60 1.2 5 2 CPIA PV-TECH 12-18 4-10 6-9 3-6 3-6 2-3 2-3 1/GW 2.5-3.0 1.6-2 1.3 0.7-1-10 3 2018 2019 2020 2021 57.7 62.1 51.9 61.9 38.8 45.2 42.0 52.0 18.9 16.9 9.9 9.9 GW 150.0 180.0 250.0 400+85.0 125.0 205.0 400.0 65.0 55.0 45.0 GW 128.0 170.0 220.0 350+GW 130.0 170.0 220.0 350+-()-4.1-3.5 20.4 43-()-6.2-2.1 16.1 35 6 1.2.2020 111.3 7&3 2021 2022 12 PV infolink CPIA 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 132.1 8 2021 66.7%58.7%2021Q2 4 68.1%9/14 BNEF 2.1/-5 5 202111 5 10 5 202112 5 5 202206 10 10 202212 6 10 6 2023 10 10 2023-2 2 202111 10 6 202206 3 3 202207 6 30 6 202209 24 24 2023 10 10 2023 3.5 3.5 202111 20 10 10 2023 2 2 202204 10 10 202209 20 10 2023 4 1 228.5 72.7 2021-2022/6 6 202207 12.5 40 12.5 2023 27.5 40 27.5 2023 3 3 202203 4 4 202210-15 15 2023 1 1 202202 8 15 2023 228.521-22 72.7 5 2 152.1/5 5 202207 15 15 2023 5 5 202211 5 5 2023 5 5 202306 25 25 2023 30 30 2023 20 20 2023 5 5 202305 10 10 2023 10 10 2023 10 10 2023 6 1 225 2023 450 2021 7 82.7 21-22 2022/6 6 14 14 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 22521-22 10 7 2 162.2 10 3+2+3 3+3 4+2 2 4+2 2+4 1080-1100 10%FBR 4+2 2 550-700 99%11/172.2 18)60/kg)20/kg)/(1080-1100)(550-700)/200 70/t 130 90 Nm/t 350 200:40/kg-60/kg 35/kg 10 7/200 120 2019 9.5/2019 9.8 7/12 8 2.2 19 9 10ppbw GB/T 25074-2017 GB/T 12963-2014/1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3/(10-9 ppba)0.30 0.68 2.61 0.30 1.10 4.80 0.68 1.40 6.16 0.15 0.30/(10-9 ppba)0.10 0.20 1.32 0.20 0.26 1.32 0.26 0.54 2.66 0.05 0.10/1016 atoms/2 5 10 1/1016 atoms/1.5 2.5 10.0 2.0 25.0 50.0 2.0 2.5 4.0 0.4 1.5/1016 atoms/15 30 30 30 30 30/s 300 200 50 1000 500(ppbw)15 50 100 1.0 2.0(ppbw)30 100 100 5.5 15(ppbw)10 15 100 10 100 6002.2 20 2021 1-2021 12 1.36 1.36 2021 6-2023 12 3.10 1.20 2021 3-2023 9.14 3.32 2022 1-2026 12 35.00 7.00 2021 9-2026 12 5.28 1.00 2021 7 1-2026 6 30 14.58 2.92 68.46 22.82 2021 2022 2022 2022 3 7.5 8.5 18 1.8 0 1.8 1.84.8 7.5 10.3 19.8 6.2%22.1%10.9%13.8%10 11 N 2.3 21 13 14 15 CPIA CPIA 2.3 22 p-PERC n-TOPCon n-HJT 23.3+%24.5+%24.5+%24.50%28.2-28.7%28.50%70%+80%+90%+-0.34-0.35%/K-0.32%/K-0.24%/K 1GW 1.0-1.5 2.0-2.5 4-4.5 PERC 16 CPIA 12 TOPCon HJT PERC 2021 PERC PERC 2.3 23 17 TOPCon n TOPCon 2021 18 TOPCon PERC TOPCon PERC 2.3 24 25.4%1GW 24.5%25%+&16GW 25.21%24.5%3GW 15GW 500MW 8GW 24%+24.5%+2GW 16GW 24%+23.5%+24.3%+15GW,1GWLGE 23.5%+REC 23.5%+24%+3GW 5GW 1GWTOPCon 1GW 2021 5GW 5GW 24+24.5%1GW 5GW 2021 3 1GW 1GW 5GW 5Gw 1GW 24%+5GW 2GW 2GW 200MW 500MW 5GW 13 TOPCon 2022 TOPCon TOPCon 20 60GW 2.3 25 2020 2021 2022E 2023E/kg/kg 1.076 1.068 1.063 1.060 m 70.8 63.7 58.5 54.5 m 175.0 170.0 164.3 158.2 mm 0.244 0.227 0.216 0.212%96%97%98%98%kg 47.6 52.1 55.5 56.7 GW/3.56 3.94 4.29 4.46 22.6%22.9%23.4%23.8%97%98%98%98%GW/3.45 3.86 4.20 4.37 CTM 99.0%99.0%99.0%99.0%GW/3.42 3.82 4.16 4.33 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 GW/2.85 3.18 3.47 3.60 11.8%9.0%3.9%14 CPIA 2022/2023 4.16/4.33GW 3.47/3.60GW 9.0%3.9%2.4 26 2020 2021 2022E 8 18 33 8 10 10 0.6 3 18 7.8 11.5 11.5 7.2 7.2 20 6 6 12 2 2 9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.8 0.5 0.5 0.5-1.2 1.2 5 5 3 1 0.8Wacker 8 8 8OCI 3.4 3.5 3.5Hemlock 1.8 1.8 1.8 15 CPIA 2022 537.5GW 447.9GW 2020 3 2023 2020 2021 2022E 60.6 77.9 143.5 GW 193.9 275.9 554.0 GW 188.1 270.4 542.9 GW 186.2 267.7 537.5 GW 155.2 223.1 447.9 16 CPIA CPIA2.4 27 22Q1 22Q2E 22H1E 22Q3E 22Q4E 22H2E 2022E 4.2 4.6 8.7 5.5 5.9 9.5 20.2 3.1 3.3 6.3 4.9 7.3 12.2 18.5 2.6 2.8 5.5 2.8 2.8 5.7 11.1 2.0 2.3 4.3 2.7 4.5 7.2 11.4 1.5 1.5 3.0 1.5 2.3 3.8 6.8 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.8 3.0 4.6 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.1 4.0 1.5 0.9 2.3 6.4 3.3 3.3 6.7 3.3 3.3 6.7 13.3 19.1 20.9 40.1 24.7 31.4 54.2 96.3 17.6%9.7%18.2%27.7%GW)65.6 75.2 140.8 86.8 108.3 195.2 336.0 64.0 73.4 137.5 84.8 105.9 190.7 328.1 63.4 72.7 136.1 84.0 104.8 188.8 324.9 52.8 60.6 113.4 70.0 87.3 157.3 270.7 17 CPIA 2022 34.0 7.5 3/4 Q3 2022 87.1 324.9/270.7GW 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 283.1 29 19 CPIA CPIA 21 2021 20 CPIA CPIA 3.1 30 22 GW IEA,23 GW IEA,1/3 1/3 3.2 24 PPA:LevelTen 25 GW:PV infolink PPA 2 3.2 TaiyangNews PV-Tech renewablesnow PV magazine 2022 5 18 RepowerEU 2030 40%45%2100 2025 320 GW 2030 600 GW FF55 420GW 43%2029 2022 5 30 2030 52GW 22GW 2 2022 4 7 2035 14GW 70GW 2022 4 7 2030 215GW 22GW 2022 3 1 2030 80%2035 100%2030 200GW 2022 2 10 2050 100GW 18 3.2 2011 11 DOC 2012 10 18.32%249.96%AD 14.78%15.97%CVD 2014 12 26.71%165.04%27.64%49.79%2018 1 201 30%5%2.5GW 2019 6 2022 2 2025 2018 9 301 3250 10%2019 5 10%25%2020 1 8 2021 3 2021 6 WRO CBP WRO 8 2021 8 11 2021 10 WRO WRO 40.31MW 2021 11 201(CIT)201 201 18%15%(10101 18%)2022 2 Auxin Solar 2 3 5/22 85 2022 6/24 19 333.2 26 PPA:LevelTen 27:MERCOM BCD 3.3 35 28 29 2021 120%3.2 36 31 32 30 33 PV infolink Q1 Q4 2/W Q2 3.4 20 GW IEA,2019 2020 2021 22 22 22 6 36 30 54 86 120 9 3 7 13 23 33 1 8 7 0 5 10-1-6 9 1 2 5 0 2-2 0 1 2 11 10 3 15 20 25-5 15-7 10 15 20-9 4 13 15 20 25 2019 2020 2021 22 22 22 110 146 176 230 262 296 17 20 27 40 50 60 12 20 27 27 32 37 10 4 13 14 15 18 7 9 7 7 8 9 34 44 47 62 67 72 18 33 26 36 41 46 12 16 29 44 49 54 73.7 83.9 94.8 21 GW IEA,/2022 260GW 3738 34 Solarzoom 3.4 384.1 1.2 3940 41
