2022-2023欧洲户储高增速+商业模式优的储能细分赛道分析报告.pptx
2022-2023+1 5 18 REPower EU 2025 320GW 2030 600GW Solarpower Europe 21 165GW 2030 49GW 15.4%2022 122%4GWh Wood Mackenzie 2031 89GWh 10 76.77GWh 90%2 21 22 2022 920 22.36%REPower EU 22 650 100 20 5 40/8 HEPI 22 3 0.4413 0.4325/KWh 2020 100%3 22 Q1 0.98GWh 22-25 2.2 3.2 3.6 5.4GWh 22-25 4 7.2 10.8 16.2GWh CAGR 73.21%12673.64 5 4816.87欧元，+4 2 3 EPS PE 688063.SH 221.44 2021A 2.04 2022E 3.82 2023E 7.17 2024E 8.48 2021A 106 2022E 56 2023E 30 2024E 25 605117.SH 202.23 3.39 5.39 7.13 8.50 58 38 29 24 2022 6 10 C O N T E N T S 02 03 01 04 05 4 5 01.SolarPower Europe 01 SolarPower Europe 3 8 REPower EU 2027 5 18 a 2030 9%13%b 2030 40%45%2025 320GW 2030 600GW c 2030 35bcm d 2027 2100 SolarPower Europe 2021 25.9GW 34%3.8GW 3.3GW 3.3GW 21 165GW 2030 49GW 15.4%21 16%-17%1 GW 2 2021 30 120%25 100%20 80%15 60%10 40%5 20%0 0%2018 2019 2020 2021 GW YoY 6 4 2030 80%2035 2030 115GW 30GW 2045 70GW 2026 22GW 2030 215GW EEG 2022 122%4GWh Wood Mackenzie 2031 89GWh 10 76.77GWh 90%Clean Energy 01 1 MW 3 2022-2031 GWh Wood Mackenzie 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 4500 4000 3000 3100 3200 950 905 900 2500 3500 2100 6000 2000 2000 2050 600 600 600 600 600 150 150 150 150 150 500 600 600 650 700 2.74 7 3.45 4.28 4.25 5.14 8.09 8.81 12.23 25.68 2.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 英国 意大利 德国 西班牙 法国 爱尔兰 荷兰 希腊 比利时 葡萄牙 8 02.02 BloombergNEF 21 22 a b Nord Stream 1 Kondratki Mallnow 160Mcm/d 90Mcm/d 60%31%REPower EU 22 650 100 BloombergNEF 10 40%25 367 4 5 22 BloombergNEF 9 BNEF 2022 920 22.36%2019 40.76%22 20 5 40/2021 HEPI 22 3 0.4413 0.4325/KWh 100%02 10 6/wind 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 35.00 30.00 40.00 45.00 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-09 2021-10 2021-11 2021-12 2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 7/MWh nordpoolgroup 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2021 2016 2020 2015 2019 2014 2018 2013 Gazprom Marketing and Trading REPower EU EUPD 21 3000-4000KWh 6000KWh 24%22%02 BloombergNEF 8 FOB 9 EUPD 30%25%20%15%10%5%0%11 12 03.21 1.8GWh 122%3.8-4GWh 22Q1 0.98GWh SolarPower Europe 2020 2021 19.3 25.9GW REPower EU 15.4%21 34%17%21 8.69%16.5%+122%23-25 80%80%50%25.38%32.54%41.7%22-25 2.2 3.2 3.6 5.4GWh 22-25 4 7.2 10.8 16.2GWh CAGR 73.21%SolarPower Europe 03 10 GWh 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2021A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022E GWh 13 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E GW 183.56 213.86 249.32 290.80 339.33 GW 25.90 30.30 35.45 41.48 48.53 34.20%17.00%17.00%17.00%17.00%GW 20.72 24.24 28.36 33.19 38.83 8.69%16.50%25.38%32.54%41.72%GWh 1.80 4.00 7.20 10.80 16.20 GWh 2.2 3.2 3.6 5.4 122.22%80.00%50.00%50.00%SolarPower Europe 2 1:2:3:20KWh 0.3267/KWh FIT 0.0372/KWh 4KW 2533.33 25 0.55%4 17%13KWh 5590 10 3%80%EuroStat Renewables Now LG CHEM Panasonic 14 03 3/KWh 0.3267/KWh 0.0372 2533.33 13KWh 5590 KWh 20 4 0.55%3%25 10 4 :2384.91 10 23849.1:FIT 10 4816.87:10 12673.64 5 03 KWh 10 73000 73000 73000-17%80%KWh 10-9395.10 37719.16 KWh 10-46975.50 9429.79 10 23849.1 20779.72 11526.25 10-1747.49 350.79 10-4816.87 12673.64 0.00 1 2 4 6 7 3 光储投资（欧元）5 节省支出（欧元）15 5 10 11 5 12000.00 10000.00 8000.00 6000.00 4000.00 2000.00 04.16 IHS Markit 2020 13%2019 4.5pct LG 2018-2021 4.26 8.2 11.2 20.63 202.13%92.49%36.59%84.2%21 81.3%04 IHS Markit 12 2020 13 wind 90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%0 5 10 15 20 25 2017 2019 2020 2018 2021 Tesla,14.50%17 派能科技,13%Sonnen,8.40%LG Energy Solution,8%沃太能源,6.40%E3/DC,5.40%其他,44.30%Segen Krannich Sonnen Energy IEC CE VDE UL CEC JIS UN38.3 REACH RoHS WEEE 14 20H1 15 Segen Ltd/Segen Solar Pty ENERGY S.R.L CNBM International South Africa(PTY)Ltd Solar Rocket Distribution EFFEKTA Regeltechnik GmbH 18 IEC 3-6 CE 3-6 VDE 4-5 UL 8-16 CEC 8 UN38.3 15 04 2021 22Q1 21 26/22 50/21 22 21 3GW 3.5GW 2GWh 22 5GW 6.2GW 23 7.5 9.3GW 04 wind 16/17 0.00 100,000.00 200,000.00 300,000.00 400,000.00 500,000.00 600,000.00 2021-01-04 2021-02-13 2021-03-25 2021-05-04 2021-06-13 2021-07-23 2021-09-01 2021-10-11 2021-11-20 2021-12-30 2022-02-08 2022-03-20 2022-04-29 价格:碳酸锂99.5%电:国产 0%50%100%150%200%250%(5)0 5 10 15 20 25 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1%)%19 2022-2024 5.91 11.10 13.13 6 10 PE 56 30 25 04 2022 6 10 20 21 41.68 38%5.79 51%5.33 54%21 10%90%36%17%16%6%4%2%Q2 CNAS SGS 04 wind 18 19 2021%180%160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2017 2019 2018%2020 2021)%巴西,36%21 美国,17%南非,16%波兰,6%印度,4%其他,21%21 11.98 262.34%28.92%36.88%5.32 212%41%5.39 265.53%34%1.06 257.94%32%PCS+PCS 22 04 6 21 20 wind 5.32 212%41%5.39 265.53%34%1.06 257.94%32%11.98 262.34%36.88%250%200%150%100%50%0%2018 2019 2020 2021 22 2021 22 04 wind 21 21 22 0%5%10%15%20%25%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2018 2019 2020 2021 23 2022-2024 9.19 12.16 14.50 6 10 PE 38 29 24 24 04/2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 4,168 6,101 7,032 8,027%37.8 46.4 15.3 14.2 579 919 1,216 1,450%51.3 58.9 32.3 19.2 3.39 5.39 7.13 8.50 PE 58 38 29 24 PB 12.8 9.5 7.1 5.5 2022 6 10 05.25 26 27 28 T H A N K Y O U
