20240528_平安证券_非银行金融行业证券业高质量发展系列报告（一）：资本市场改革驱动证券业格局重塑_20页.pdf
2024 05 28*20240222 S1060520040001 BQC673 WANGWEIYI S1060520040002 LIBINGTING S1060122070023 WEIJIWEN 1+N 1 2 3 4 1970s 2022 3000 2008 31%NYSE CR10 60%1000 300 1 2 3 4 5 2/20.4.6 2.1.6 2.2.9 2.3.10 2.4.11.12.15.19 YWBYyRtOtQpOoQnOmRtMpOaQcMaQtRpPmOnRfQpPnQjMmOxO7NrRuMvPrNrPuOnNxO 3/20 1.4 2.5 3.7 4.8 5 SEC.9 6.9 7.10 8 401(K).11 9 401(K).11 10 IRAs.11 11 IRAs.11 12 FINRA.13 13 NYSE.13 14 NYSE.13 15 NYSE.13 16.14 17.14 18.14 19.16 20.16 21.16 22 2023.16 23.16 24 2024Q1.17 25.19 4/20 1+N 1+N 2024 4 2004 2014 1+N 1.5 2 6000 1 1 2 10 15 6000 8000 1 3,3 1.5,6000,3 1 10;3,3 2,1,3 2 15;50,6,3 1.5;50,6,3 2.5;80,8 100,10,5000;,1,6000;10,1;15,4;,4:,4:()5%,6000;(1)5%,8000;()10%;(2)10%;()5;(3)7;()20%,3(4)25%,3(),+QMOTRKpgeVp1HF7x8ncn5KvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MPjTfNOqwIbFymwEURMY5Wx 5/20 50()50 ST 15 6 3 1 3 2 3 3,2,5,2 50%;“+”1 2 30%2 3 20%2,5,2 50%2 30%ST*ST ST*ST 1 1 1 3;1 1“”“1”“1”“6/20 1”“”20 3 A A+B 3 5 ETF 5 10 2035 2 3 2.1 SEC 1993 1993 SEC 1 SEC 1996 IPO 1 7/20 1948 2006 JPX-R 1993 SEC SEC SEC S-K S-X C 21 2002-SEC SEC 3 S-B S-K S-X-SEC S-B S-K 2012 JOBS 2 SEC 2 8/20 SEC 3 2023 10-k 7 37 29 SEC Plain English SEC SEC Division of Corporation Finance 12 25-35 80%3 SEC 3-4 FACEBOOK TWITTER SEC 3 4 4 SEC SEC 5 SEC SEC SEC SEC SEC 6/SEC SEC SEC SEC 7 SEC 2023 2022/10/1-2023/9/30 SEC 5325 1512 1222 2024 5329 2025 5621 2023 21.94 2024 2025 21.49 25.94 SEC/2022 3590 2022 21.80 3 4 5 6 IPO 7 9/20 5 SEC 6 SEC 8 1966 NERA 2018-2023 300 2023 228 31%29%2013 9 2.2-SEC SEC 2 144 SEC 6 8 9 19.5420.2421.9421.4925.94420044004600480050005200540056005800051015202530FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024E FY2025E年度支出/预算支出（亿美元）员工数（人，右）20.0921.8022.4728.073250330033503400345035003550360036500510152025302021 2022 2023E 2024E年度支出/预算支出（亿元人民币）员工数（人，右）10/20 1%12 3 5000 5 SEC 144 3 10-20 11 1980-2017 2.6 1.4 50%56%15%9%7 400 1.1200 100,000 2.60 10%3.30 1 4.1934 30 1500 5.“”30 5000 5000 6.“+”30 3.75 12 1500 30 1 7.8.30 7500 7500 9.10.2.3 1996 10 11 11/20 2000 12 70 401(K)IRAs 401(K)IRAs ICI 2023 401(K)7.4 65%87%IRA 13.6 43%75%70 Wind 2023 13F 1 56%8 401(K)9 401(K)ICI ICI 10 IRAs 11 IRAs ICI ICI 2.4 12 30405060700100020003000400050006000199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023401(K)%0%20%40%60%80%100%19911993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017201920212023 30354045505502000400060008000199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023IRA%0%20%40%60%80%100%19911993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017201920212023 12/20-JP 20 20 30 1933 20 70 SEC 13/12 1975 1999 2010-2018-60 1965 1968 1962 2928 1969 1844 14 1967 1980 80 80 90 CR10 60%1970s 2020 15 30%10 70%SIMFA 2022 FINRA Broker-Dealers 3378 2008 4896 31%2022 NYSE 3799 2008 55%2004-2018 TOP10 TOP11-TOP25 60%20%20%TOP10 TOP11-TOP25 65%25%10%13 14 13/20 12 FINRA 13 NYSE SIMFA SIMFA 14 NYSE 15 NYSE SIMFA SIMFA E*Trade State Street Private Asset LAZARD 48963378010002000300040005000600020082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202205001000150020002500300035004000200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022NYSE NYSE 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018 TOP11-25 TOP100%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018 TOP11-25 TOP10 14/20 16 2020 1000 300 33 50%1949 1152 1959 508 1949 36.8 1959 106 1949 1.5 1959 2.6 60 1962 564 1968 255 15 80 JSDA 2022 273 9 264 1000 33 33 2013FY-2022FY 2022FY 2022/4/1-2023/3/31 46%17 18 JSDA JSDA SMBC 1000 15 02004006008001000120014001949195919621968200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022证券公司数量（家）0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2013FY2014FY2015FY2016FY2017FY2018FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY 15/20 Fintertech 1965 30 60 1985 29 17 15 SMBC 1916 1983 32 12 90 SBI 2023 145 2019 12 2024 1+N 2024 4 2024 3 19.15%5 15.11%Wind 2023 283 109 43 23 42 391 43 18 20%2023 8.7 24%25%2023 3534 0.5%16/20 19 20 Wind Wind 2024 5 46 100%Wind 2023 181 158 43 35 38 340 43 21 50%21 22 2023 Wind 23 2024 5 A 46 100%2024 4 4.61%2024 4 5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2,1414,535 3,534127,141111,61886,8850200004000060000800001000001200001400002021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023浙商基金 中欧基金净利润（万元）-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 010203040506070江苏 广东 北京 上海 其他 河南 北京 江苏 浙江 其他国联证券 民生证券分公司及营业部数量（家）17/20 46.81%2024 3 8.63 15.6%2024 3 20%2024 3 29.81%20.81%9%2024 3 2023 12 2023 11 56%24 2024Q1()17.67%78.67%AMC 45.00%23.55%46.38%30.17%40.11%47.43%25.15%26.34%34.12%()26.09%26.63%21.35%56.77%35.81%11.06%33.53%54.79%29.16%15.21%24.33%19.21%25.01%21.70%24.24%18/20 20.49%27.89%18.13%35.65%32.62%31.77%25.52%13.84%()25.74%32.44%36.96%23.33%30.81%27.90%19.31%64.46%24.13%14.69%()22.31%14.89%5.35%10.92%33.42%28.71%Wind 2019 beta 19/20 25 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CR5 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