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20240522_海通证券_有色金属行业：宏观产业共振有色金属价格有望再上台阶_25页.pdf

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20240522_海通证券_有色金属行业：宏观产业共振有色金属价格有望再上台阶_25页.pdf

SAC S0850522120002 SAC S0850520010002 2024 5 22 95345 5 17 2402.60/29.68/1.27%3.63%561.44/7.65/0.92%3.41%4 CPI 3.4%3.5%CPI 3.6%3.8%0 0.7%0.2%1.1%1.1%0.4%5 10-5 17 LME 6.7%4.0%6.8%SHFE 4.1%1.3%3.3%5 17 LME 10715/2621/3.43/5 17 4 CPI CPI 3.6%5 16SMM 1.03 41.04 28.69 66 63 6 4 85 SMM 4 87 85 35.9%33.5%36%1-4 298.5 294 30.3%32.3%32.4%5/10-5/17 14.5%5 17 40.06/5 10-5 17-1.4%14.5%2 1ZFUvMmRoNoPoQnOmRrOqR6MaOaQtRmMsQmQeRmMsPiNsQmP8OqQxPwMnRsONZsRzR3 Wind 2024/5/10 2024/5/17/11.80 11.50-2.5%/11.10 10.50-5.4%/10.01 9.81-2.0%LME/1.91 2.11 10.7%SHFE/14.48 15.35 6.0%/3.24 3.24 0.0%/970.00 990.00 2.1%/20.50 21.90 6.8%MB/12.93 12.85-0.6%MB/16.50 15.88-3.8%LME/10040 10715 6.7%LME/2521 2621 4.0%LME/2945 3043 3.3%LME/2226 2303 3.5%LME/3.21 3.43 6.8%SHFE/8.10 8.43 4.1%SHFE/2.07 2.10 1.3%SHFE/2.37 2.39 0.7%SHFE/1.81 1.87 3.5%SHFE/26.81 27.70 3.3%A00/2.06 2.08 0.8%/3603.00 3635.00 0.9%2024/5/10 2024/5/17/2372.45 2402.60 1.3%/28.64 29.68 3.6%COMEX/2366.90 2419.80 2.2%COMEX/28.40 31.78 11.9%/40.63 40.06-1.4%:45%-50%/3765.00 3695.00-1.9%/10.40 11.91 14.5%/0.21 0.21 0.5%/0.66 0.66-0.6%:55%/14.55 15.21 4.5%:50/9950.00 9950.00 0.0%:99.999%/7000.00 7000.00 0.0%99.6%/52.70 50.90-3.4%/2270.00 2270.00 0.0%/1.44 1.46 1.4%/2.01 2.00-0.6%:99.99%/5.80 5.90 1.7%:99.995%/2925.00 2975.00 1.7%1.5/10-5/17 0.9%2.2.1 5/10-5/17 2.5%2.2 LME 5/10-5/17 6.7%2.3 5/10-5/17 1.3%2.4 5/10-5/17 14.5%3.4.4 un90DGSflCiKNziIkTRUiZKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MNcMgseY6WSzp2b2TgfJVrQ 1.5/10-5/17 0.9%2.2.1 5/10-5/17 2.5%2.2 LME 5/10-5/17 6.7%2.3 5/10-5/17 1.3%2.4 5/10-5/17 14.5%3.4.5 6 Wind 2024.5.10-2024.5.17 5/10-5/17 0.9%2024.5.10-2024.5.17 2024.5.10-2024.5.17 0.06%-0.91%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%A-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%7 Wind 2024.5.10-2024.5.17 5/10-5/17 0.9%2024.5.10-2024.5.17 2024.5.10-2024.5.17 0%4%8%12%16%20%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%-5%0%5%10%SQM Allkem Pilbara 8 1.5/10-5/17 0.9%2.2.1 5/10-5/17 2.5%2.2 LME 5/10-5/17 6.7%2.3 5/10-5/17 1.3%2.4 5/10-5/17 14.5%3.4.9 Wind 5/10-5/17 2.5%/010203040506022/05 22/11 23/05 23/11 24/05 10.210.410.610.811.011.211.4M M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+82024/05/17 2024/05/10610141822/05 22/11 23/05 23/11 24/05NCM111 NCM523 NCM622 NCM81148121620102030405022/10 22/12 23/02 23/04 23/06 23/08 23/10 23/12 24/02 24/04NCM111 NCM523 NCM622 NCM811 10 Wind/LME SHFE LME 5/10-5/17 10.7%MB 010203002422/05 22/08 22/11 23/02 23/05 23/08 23/11 24/02 24/05LME/SHFE/0102022/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04LME SHFE 9001100130015001700345622/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04/102030402030405022/06 22/09 22/12 23/03 23/06 23/09 23/12 24/03/MB/MB/13.514.014.515.015.516.0M M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+8 M+92024/05/10 2024/05/17 11 1.5/10-5/17 0.9%2.2.1 5/10-5/17 2.5%2.2 LME 5/10-5/17 6.7%2.3 5/10-5/17 1.3%2.4 5/10-5/17 14.5%3.4.12 Wind LME 5/10-5/17 6.7%/LME SHFE 5678960008000100001200022/05 22/11 23/05 23/11 24/05LME/SHFE/020406022/04 22/06 22/08 22/10 22/12 23/02 23/04 23/06 23/08 23/10 23/12 24/02 24/04LME SHFE SHFE COMEX 7.588.5M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+8 M+92024/05/10 2024/05/17 13 Wind LME 5/10-5/17 6.7%A00/LME SHFE 1.41.82.215002500350022/05 22/11 23/05 23/11 24/05LME/SHFE/0408012016022/04 22/06 22/08 22/10 22/12 23/02 23/04 23/06 23/08 23/10 23/12 24/02 24/04LME SHFE COMEX 20003000400012322/05 22/11 23/05 23/11 24/05A00/1.801.851.901.952.002.052.102.15M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+82024/05/10 2024/05/17 14 Wind LME 5/10-5/17 6.7%LME SHFE LME SHFE LME SHFE 1.52.53.5200030004000500022/05 22/11 23/05 23/11 24/05LME/SHFE/102030401234522/05 22/11 23/05 23/11 24/05LME/SHFE/1.31.41.51.61.71.81.92.015002000250022/05 22/11 23/05 23/11 24/05LME/SHFE/020406022/04 22/07 22/10 23/01 23/04 23/07 23/10 24/01 24/04LME SHFE 0400080001200016000200002400022/04 22/08 22/12 23/04 23/08 23/12 24/04LME SHFE 01020304022/04 22/07 22/10 23/01 23/04 23/07 23/10 24/01 24/04LME SHFE 15 1.5/10-5/17 0.9%2.2.1 5/10-5/17 2.5%2.2 LME 5/10-5/17 6.7%2.3 5/10-5/17 1.3%2.4 5/10-5/17 14.5%3.4.16 Wind CPI%COMEX SHFE 5/10-5/17 1.3%35037039041043045047049051053055057059015001700190021002300250022/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04COMEX/SHFE/8090100110120160017001800190020002100220023002400250022/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04/350045005500650075008500152025303522/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04COMEX/SHFE/0123456024681022/05 22/11 23/05 23/11 CPI 17 Wind 5/10-5/17 76.15 SPDR iShares ETF%34566070809010022/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04/-3-2-1012322/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04 10Y-2Y 10Y-3M 01002003004005006007008009000123456789102004 2009 2014 2019 2024:3804304805308001000120022/05 22/11 23/05 23/11SPDR ETF iShares ETF 18 1.5/10-5/17 0.9%2.2.1 5/10-5/17 2.5%2.2 LME 5/10-5/17 6.7%2.3 5/10-5/17 1.3%2.4 5/10-5/17 14.5%3.4.19 Wind 5/10-5/17 14.5%/355575951150.00.51.01.52.022/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04/567891010002000300040005000600022/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04:45%-50%/910111213148000850090009500100001050022/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04:5 0/:5 5%/1800200022002400455565758522/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04 99.6%/024601222/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04 1000120014001600180020002200240026002800300032003456722/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04:9 9.9 9%/:9 9.9 9 5%/20 1.5/10-5/17 0.9%2.2.1 5/10-5/17 2.5%2.2 LME 5/10-5/17 6.7%2.3 5/10-5/17 1.3%2.4 5/10-5/17 14.5%3.4.21(2028)20 Strandline Resources UK Limited 100%2024-5-15 58815.80 2024-5-17 2030 3-5 10 2024-5-18 20 20 2024-5-20 STA 4300 27180104 STA SRUL 100%15819896 STA 22 1.5/10-5/17 0.9%2.2.1 5/10-5/17 2.5%2.2 LME 5/10-5/17 6.7%2.3 5/10-5/17 1.3%2.4 5/10-5/17 14.5%3.4.23 SAC S0850522120002 021-23219406 Email SAC S0850520010002 021-23154394 Email 24 021-23219383 Email 021-23185845 Email 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%25

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