20230530_华创证券_汽车行业跟踪报告：铝压铸季报经营要素Q1、Q2平稳继续提供业绩强支撑_19页.pdf
2009 1210 2023 05 30 Q1 Q2 ASP 2021 4Q22 1Q23 4Q22+66%+15%1Q23+27%-30%1Q23 1.85/4Q21 1Q22 2.0+2.2+CCFI 2022 2020 2.5 1Q23 4Q22 2%6%1Q23 1%4Q22+20%+40%-5%+15%1Q23+5%30%-15%0%5%2Q22 4Q22+6.8+1.6+86%1Q23+1+61%+52%2Q22 Model Y ET5 HiPhi Z 009 ES8 G6 M9 2024 4 2019 1.5-2.5 ASP ASP 2Q 2Q23+66%+40%2Q 2Q Wind 2023+15%+60%25%PE 2023 PE 25 021-20572543 S0360519070003%()215 0.03()31,460.34 3.38()22,914.18 3.25%1M 6M 12M 0.4%-8.9%-6.8%5.1%-8.5%-2.0%2023-05-23 1+2 2023-05-10 4Q22 1Q23 2023-05-08-13%-1%12%24%22/05 22/08 22/10 23/01 23/03 23/052022-05-302023-05-30 300 2009 1210 2 EPS PE PB 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 26.65 1.05 1.57 1.93 25.38 17.01 13.82 4.48 21.73 0.94 1.19 1.47 23.24 18.33 14.76 3.18 60.01 1.97 2.54 3.37 30.43 23.63 17.81 4.86 40.45 1.21 1.98 2.95 33.42 20.42 13.70 3.16 33.20 1.36 1.87 2.50 24.36 17.79 13.27 3.71 Wind 2023 5 30 YWFUxOmRnOoPsMsRqNoRoP9P9R7NnPpPoMpMlOmMtOfQpMpObRpPuMwMmQnQMYqQqP 2009 1210 3 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.5 1.3.6 1.4.7 2.8 2.1.4Q22 1Q23.8 2.2.9 3.11 4.12 5.13 6.14 6.1./.14 6.2.14 7.16 2009 1210 4 1.5 2 2003 A00/.6 3.6 4 2002.7 5 2017.7 6.8 7%.9 8.9 9.10 10 ES8.11 11.11 12 M9.11 13.11 14 2015/%.14 15 2015%.14 16 PE.15 17.15 2009 1210 5 1.2023 ASP 2021/2022 2023 1 4Q22 1Q23 2 7M22 1.7-1.9/3 CCFI 2022 2020 2.5 4 1-3Q22 4Q22 1.1.1Q23 4Q22 216+66%+15%1Q23 150+27%-30%1Q23 22.9+26%+1%5.3+66%+14%1 1.2.3M22 7M22 1.7-1.9/2021 2022 1-2 0%50%100%150%200%250%300%050100150200250300新能源乘用车季度批发（万辆，左轴）新能源乘用车季度批发增 速（%，右轴）2009 1210 6 2-3Q22-7%-11%2-3 4Q22 1Q23+2%-2%2 2003 A00/Wind 2023 5 26 3 Wind 1.3.2021 CCFI 2022 2020 2.5 2Q22 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023长江有色市场:平均价:铝:A00 2009 1210 7 4 2002 Wind 1.4.1-3Q22 4Q22 5 2017 Wind 01,0002,0003,0004,0002002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023CCFI:综合指数6.06.57.07.58.08.52017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023美元兑人民币 欧元兑人民币 2009 1210 8 2.211 4Q22+10%+5%+12%-8%1Q23+6%-15%+7%-6%8 2.1.4Q22 1Q23 1Q23 1)4Q22 30-40%20%10%2)1Q23 6+11%+4%2Q-1%-5%10%10%6 Wind 2009 1210 9 2.2.1Q23 4Q22 4Q22+6.8+1.6+86%1Q23+1+61%+52%7%Wind 8 Wind 1 2-3Q22-7%-11%2-3 4Q22 1Q23+2%-2%2022+6%7+1.2PP 2021 2020+5.3PP+0.4PP+2.5PP 2009 1210 10 9 Wind 2009 1210 11 3.Model Y ET5 HiPhi Z 009 2024 1 ES8 12M22 8800T 31 2 G6 4+CIB 161 17%10 ES8 11 3 M9 4M23 9000T 95%212 70%1440 50-60 4Q23 4 E001 5M23 12 M9 13 2009 1210 12 4.2Q 3Q 1 1 L7 2023 3 L7 7700 4 L8 L9 6000+2Q23 7.6-8.1 50%2 1Q23 ES6 ES8 2Q 5 6 ES6 3 G6 4 SEPA 2.0 B SUV Model Y 4 2-3Q 5 Pro 5 25 N7 2009 1210 13 5.4 2025 1 3D 2 10 30 3 100 2020 30%800 2020 5%2019/2009 1210 14 6.6.1./900+39%1.5-2.5k 2022 1/2 2019 2022 19 3 3Q22 1Q23 1Q 2Q 2022 14 2015/%15 2015%Wind Wind 6.2.2023 25 2H22 2023 PE_TTM 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022铝压铸公司折摊/营收 比例中 值（%）0%5%10%15%20%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022铝压铸公司总费用率中值（%）2009 1210 15 30 2023 PE 25 1.5-2.5k 16 PE Wind 2023 5 30 17 PE PE TTM PB MRQ 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 192 6.5 8.3 10.5 13.0 109%27%27%24%23 18 15 26 3.5 100 4.7 5.5 6.7 8.4 55%17%22%26%18 15 12 21 2.0 Wind 107 2.4 3.2 5.2 7.8 145%34%64%49%33 20 14 66 3.5 249 7.0 9.8 14.6 18.0 70%40%49%23%25 17 14 32 4.3 70 2.2 2.8 3.9 5.2 125%26%37%34%25 18 13 29 4.4 64 1.3 2.1 3.2 4.4 33%60%50%36%30 20 15 47 3.4 Wind 661 17.0 21.7 28.0 37.1 67%28%29%33%30 24 18 37 5.3 Wind 2023 5 30 03060901201502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023爱柯迪 广东鸿图 拓普集团 文灿股份旭升集团 泉峰汽车 嵘泰股份 美利信 2009 1210 16 7.2009 1210 17 2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 18 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 19(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
