20240530_海通证券_房地产行业：结庐人境大国丰老有所养夕阳红_27页.pdf
Table_MainInfo/2024 05 30 Table_InvestInfo Table_QuoteInfo-18.10%-9.39%-0.67%8.05%16.77%25.49%2023/5 2023/8 2023/11 2024/2 Table_ReportInfo 21 2024.05.27 20 2024.05.19 2024.05.18 Table_AuthorInfo:Tel:021-23185710 Email:S0850510120001:Tel:(021)23185696 Email:S0850511010019:Tel:(021)23185689 Email:Tel:(021)23183953 Email:1 Table_Summary 1 2 3 4 1 CCRC REITs 2 3 65 1964 3.6%2023 15.4%1982 7.98%2022 21.83%10.17%2022 822.3 3.17%2%-4%25-35 2050 1.52 5.75 3.18 1 2 3 4 CCRC CCRC 1+2+1 1 A 2 58402 2 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.5 2.6 2.1.6 2.2.7 2.3.8 3.9 3.1.9 3.2.11 3.3.11 4.13 4.1.13 4.2.15 5.17 5.1.17 5.2.17 5.3.21 6.22 6.1.22 6.2.23 6.3.24 7.24 8.26 XVBYzQrMnOmNqOnOmRsNoPaQcM8OsQmMnPrNiNqQtOlOoNnM7NmNpPNZnMqRuOoPrQ 3 1.5 2.6 3 65.10 4.10 5 2022.10 6 2022%.11 7 2022 65.11 8.11 9.11 10 65.12 11.12 12.13 13.15 14.17 15 CCRC.19 16.20 17.20 18.21 19.23 20.24 4 1 2050.12 2.14 3.16 4.16 5.18 6.19 7.22 8.23 9.25/80XConMs1sqrY71HB5jQZKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MMSEEQtdgO9LZ4cabXJlWh2 5 1.1.1 1 2 3 1 1.2 1 60 2 3 4 6 2 _ 2.2.1 CCRC REITs CCRC REITs 1 60 5570 23000 90.95%2 CCRC 100 CCRC 7 CCRC 2000 CCRC 82%CCRC 5565 CCRC CCRC CCRC 24 CCRC CCRC 1:1 CCRC 20 100 3000 4000 50006000 3 REITs REITs REITs 600 80%90%REITs REITs REITs REITs 50%REITs 5%6%REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs 2.2 1 60 8 2 20 2.3 1 9 2 assisted living 3 3.3.1 0-14 1964 40.7%2023 16.36%15-64 1964 55.7%2010 74.5%2023 68.26%65 1964 3.6%2023 15.4%=65/15-64 1982 7.98%2022 21.83%10 3 65 0 20 40 60 80 100 19531982199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020220-14 15-64 65 Wind 4 0 5 10 15 20 25 Wind 2023 14.10 65 15.4%2022 30 34 50 54 10 30 60 65 30 5 2022 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Wind 2022 21.83%10.17%23.76%24.91%26.39%30.25%35.23%35.42%48.90%2022 65 13.72%11 6 2022%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Wind 7 2022 65 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Wind 3.2 2022 7.66 6.25 2022 8.27 3.71 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 Wind 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 Wind 3.3 2030 2040 2050 65 2.58 3.60 3.95 0.76 2030 2040 2050 65 1.84 2.85 3.42 12 10 65 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 202220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E2036E2037E2038E2039E2040E2041E2042E2043E2044E2045E2046E2047E2048E2049E2050E 65 65 2022 822.3 3.17%2030 2040 2050 233.3 620.2 1148.8 11 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 202220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E2036E2037E2038E2039E2040E2041E2042E2043E2044E2045E2046E2047E2048E2049E2050E Wind 2%-4%25-35 50-70 2050 1.52 5.75 3.18 1 2050%/1 2 3 4 5 10 2642 6093 10591 16435 24012 15 3963 9140 15886 24653 36018 20 5284 12187 21181 32871 48024 25 6605 15234 26477 41088 60031 30 7926 18280 31772 49306 72037 35 9247 21327 37067 57524 84043 40 10568 24374 42363 65741 96049 45 11889 27420 47658 73959 108055 50 13210 30467 52953 82177 120061 Wind 13 4.4.1 1994 1994 2000 2001 2001-2005 2006 2011 2016 2021 2019 2022 2035 2050 12 wind 1994 2000 2001-2005 14 2 1994 2000 2000 35 50 2000-2000 2001-2005 10 90%1 80%60%80%50%()()40 50%50%220 80 2010 1 342 30 10%50%90%50%30%95%10%35%65 70%12%50%20%900 100%100%1 60%1 15 13 4.2 2021 1 2 3 1 2020 9 2021 2022 4 200 16 3/2 2019 2024 4 4 2019.4 2023.11 2 3 2024.4 3 0.1 17 4 2019 5.5.1 14 5.2 CCRC 18 5.2.1 1 CCRC CCRC Continuing Care Retirement Community CCRC 55-65 24 80 CCRC 1/3 5 CCRC+19 2 2021 90%7%3%3 2020 1 2 3 15 CCRC 6 80 16.4 5 1.5 CCRC 12:2:1 1+2 3 20 4 5.2.2 1 16 17 21 2 5.3 18 1 2 3 4 22 6.6.1 2009 35 476 8.3+5.5+4400+7 2015 13.8 20 20 2020 17.5 20 5 2022 13.2 20 5 2023 13.8 5 2016 9 20 20 2022 1.3 20 20 2020 4.4 20 5 2019 23.2 20 5 2023 3 20 2022 9.3 1 1 2022 4.8 10 5 2023 8 10 2023 6.4 20 2023 3.9 10 2018 7.7 20 10 2023 5.4 5 2017 5.8 20 10 2022 15.2 3 3 2023 5.4 10 8-2022 9.5 20 5 CCRC 30 100-TKR TK-LTC N 23 8 6.2 1+2+19 1 200 20 5 2 20 3 64 1 10 28 18 20 5 1 20 24 6.3 45 70 2017 20 200 2018 2022 3 10 2025 105 70 10 20 1 4 20 7.1 2 200 3 10 105 10 20 2017 2018 2022 2025 70 25 14 15-30 2-3 3 24 96+24 9 1 2/3 10-19 1-2 1-6 1-2 42 65 93+1 90%7%3%2+2 5 57 3+/26 56 78 1 A 2 8.27 Table_Analysts Table_Reports,A,A,1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%
