S0020521060001 021-5109-7188 2024 5 8 V2X 2WUEVxOnQoNoPpRpMmRqPnM9P9R8OpNpPoMsOkPmMsPlOqQyR9PnNuMwMsRuMNZmOoM 2022 3.19 1700 2022 2375 93 BASE 2022 768 2006 16 2010 1906 2013 2000 16 1 2%Wind Wind 050001000015000200002500030000350002004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 20223-20-100102030405005001000150020002500300035002003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2013 2198.4 2022 3 4 wind wind 74076078080082084034000380004200046000500002004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 3003704405105806501000017000240003100038000450001980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 5 6 wind wind 23027031035039043012000160002000024000280002004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 050100150200250020004000600080001000012000140002004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020()2022 1.26 226 12000 350 250 1.2 4LiLCGOVzMS3UchldgZlxe5KvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MO2pWIiRf7NM/j7xJOt7wQn 2667 2 300 4%13 2035 2 4 15 2667 7 2035 2 8 2035 4 Wind Wind 128502000005000100001500020000250002022 2035 3.19400.511.522.533.544.52022 2035 5 2021/,2667 933.5;2022 50%311 2023 1-10 392 60%9/2019 wind,0.042 3.007 1.105 0.332 1.846 00.511.522.533.5 6 10%wind,-40-20020406080100120140050100150200250300350400450%,2023 214 75.7%2023 9 生产要素 需求条件件相关与支撑产业企业战略企业结构同业竞争机会政府,11 12 7 13 2021 14 Late post,8 15%16 Stellantis,9 17 18 2022 2022.1-2022.4,1069.9%47.1%22.7%40.0%7.4%12.9%2016 2022 19 20,1130.3%25.8%24.7%17.4%1.8%28.9%27.2%22.1%14.4%7.5%21 L4 22 23 L5 2023,N=30001250%43%4%24%19%11%17%23%38%9%16%47%66%53%6%18%18%13%10%17%30%6%12%51%35%39%69%35%44%73%35%44%80%BEV PHEV 18-34 35-54 55+42%41%81%52%51%89%53%57%87%BEV PHEV 18-34 35-54 55+81%82%77%95%93%84%93%90%85%BEV PHEV 18-34 35-54 55+2023 3 29.1%17.8%9.1%13 1 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1 2 3 4.7%5.2%13.4%25.5%25.5%29.5%31.5%29.1%2.7%12.6%22.7%28.0%17.9%20.8%25.8%21.6%2.5%9.1%14.4%17.3%20.4%20.9%22.2%21.2%41.9%58.3%69.8%73.5%71.2%71.5%70.1%71.0%2.1%4.3%7.2%10.0%13.0%13.9%12.3%13.0%10.2%27.1%39.1%49.1%48.4%51.0%52.0%50.6%0.7%3.4%9.8%9.8%7.6%8.4%7.9%8.0%2.6%8.9%16.3%20.3%19.2%20.7%21.6%20.5%2.7%8.3%14.2%18.3%16.4%18.1%18.8%17.8%0.8%1.0%1.6%2.9%2.9%3.5%4.4%3.6%1.8%2.2%4.2%6.9%8.9%8.7%9.7%9.1%1.7%2.0%3.8%6.2%8.0%7.9%8.9%8.2%2.0%2.5%6.2%9.9%8.9%9.7%8.7%9.1%0.7%0.5%1.0%2.2%2.8%3.0%2.9%2.9%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.5%1.4%1.7%2.0%1.7%0.4%0.5%1.0%1.8%2.5%2.8%2.8%2.7%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.8%1.5%2.1%2.0%1.0%2.4%3.9%8.1%13.4%13.0%15.4%16.6%15.1%2023 4-5 6 17.88 wind,24 14012315161718192023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06:GAIN.:2 2023 70k 2023.3.7-2023.3.31 25k-70k 2023.3.1-2023.3.31 6.5 65k 2023.3.3-2023.3.32 22888-42888 2023.3.11-2023.3.31 Model 3 Model Y 20k-48k Model Y 20%2023.1.6 42k 2023.3.1-2023.3.31 88 8888 2023.3.10-2023.3.31 36 15 2009 3 2015-2022 2015 2025 2020-2025 2016 2018 2020 30%5G-V2X-2020 2021-2035 2021 R 25 012345672013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 100 150 200 250 300 400 16 2023 FDI 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7,5/2022.08 40%50%10%2023.03.03 Uallace Moreira 35%2023.09.15 2023.10.04 202417 2024 2024 2750 5.4%26 GDP(2018-2023)27 MPV wind,-10-505101520-50-30-10103050709018-Q118-Q218-Q318-Q419-Q119-Q219-Q319-Q420-Q120-Q220-Q320-Q421-Q121-Q221-Q321-Q422-Q122-Q222-Q322-Q423-Q123-Q223-Q3%GDP(%V2X 18 0 1 Embryonic growth shakeout Mature Decline 28 19 2009 20 6 2022 10 20 Model 3 2022 1 1 T03 C11 8-9 20 2022 6 CEO 20 50 PHEV 22 1-10 51%,284%10-30 2021 10 1 U 15 2023 21 7 FSD FSD V12 NOA 2024 2025 2.0 2023 10 2023Q4/2024Q1/2024Q2 6/20/40 2023 8-NOA 15-20 Pro 2023 AD Max 3.0 NOA 2024 AD Pro 3.0 NOA 2023 100 2024 2000 B B11 L3 2023 50 XNGP 2024 XNGP 1-4 AI 2023 XBrain L3 HT L3 L2+NDA2025 L4 TECHWEB chasm,29 22实用主义者（pragmatists）保守主义者(conservatives)Innovators Early Adaptors Early Majority Late Majority LaggardsChasm+A00,30 23,31 EU5 ARCFOX 24,32 8,2022 15%25,33 9,2025-2026 50%26 10,34 2012 50%2012-2022 27 2G/3G OPPO VIVO 2014 3G/4G 28 12 2014 MATE7 OPPO VIVO 11 2022 2022 2021 VIVO 18.6%21.5%-25.1%Honor 18.1%11.7%34.4%OPPO 16.8%20.4%-28.2%Apple 16.8%15.3%-4.4%XIAOMI 13.7%15.5%-23.7%16%15.6%-11.2%100%100%-13.2%35 29 800V/NOA/NOA 13 V2X 30 31 PACK IGBT PCB,36/20 4-6 1/5-1/4 2-4 1.5T/ICCT Vehicle,37 600KM BOM 32 ICCT Vehicle,38 150KM BOM,30%,18%,16%,15%,8%,8%,5%20%18%18%15%/10%6%8%5%OTA 33 39+OTA+40 34 2023 L2 39%L3 2023 11 2.0 PACA 2025 50%2030 70%CAICV 41 35 14 2.0 2025 2030 2035 2025 2030 2035PA CA 50%70%HA C-V2X 50%FA CA BRT CA HA HA FA HA DA PA HA BRT CA HA HA HA HA HA HA CAICV 52%51%35%10%13%10%5%3%35%39%50%52%10%20%15%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2022 2023 2025E 2030EL0 L1 L2 L3 L4/L5 42 36 V2X 360 MINIEYE Apollo Momenta T4.AI Velodyne Trimble Linux Android QNX PIX Moving +V2X 43 37 单车智能 单车智能 SoC HD MapRSU MEC 5G NR-V2X 38 45 2020-2026()46 2021-2027()ICV Tank,YOLE 44 2022-2026()Frost&Sullivan,-2026 430 2022 2026 101.1%ICV Tank 2025 230 2026 280,2020 2026 27.9%4D 3D 4D Yole 2027 128 4D 78 61%26.475.9139.6240.7431.80501001502002503003504004505002022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E642302800501001502002503002020 2025E 2026E18301280204060801001201402022 2025 2027 47 36 39 4D 8 200 ,48 M9 40 15 M9 Model X()M9 Model X()()192 5000-10000 1 7500-400-600 3 1500 1 500 200-400 4 1200-50-150 12 1200 12 1200 200-400 11 3300 9 3000 14700 4700-M9 31 192 250 184/20Hz M9 BOM 14000 Model X Autopilot 8 12 1 CMOS PCB SoC Model X BOM 5000-/SoC SoC 49 SoC 41 10%5%Mobileye ThorOrinRide Flex Premium SoC RideEyeQ UltraEyeQ5FSD 5A1000Pro 910MDC8102000 TOPS254 TOPS600 TOPS360 TOPS176 TOPS24 TOPS72 TOPS128 TOPS106+TOPS640 TOPS200 TOPS ET7 M7/WEY/001 IX Model S/X S-HI ECU Tier1 Tier1 E/E Tier1.5 OEM Tier2 Tier1 Tier1 Tier0.5 Tier0.5 OEM 50 E/E 42 ECU Tier1 Tier1 E/E Tier1.5 Tier1 Tier1 Tier0.5 E/E:Tier1 Tier1 E/E 1+1 2 2025 600 26%51 432020 01002003004006005002021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 1-2 400-500 300 4000 2000-2500 2021-2025CAGR26.2%19.5%2.7%72.2%45.3%1.0/E/E 2.0 3.0/ESC ebooster EPS OTA;X Y;(100M)CANFD FlexRay;ESC ebooster EPS RWS DAS IBS RBU EMB OTA;X Y Z(100M);:()0TA(4WD+ESC+EPS+)0TA 52 V2X V2X45 V2X V2X V2X 46 V2X 16 CAN C-V2X 10 LTE-V2X V2V V2I 60 2023 7000 1500 17 16 3500 4000 53 47 V2X CAICV 54 2022 55 13 2022 CAICV,26.5 15.3 12.6 9.5 7.1 6.7 6.7 6.1 5.5 5.2 5.2 4.0 3.0 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 051015202530 48 V2X 17 2017.12 2018.6 2020.4 2021.2 2021.12 2022.4 6 71 2023.7 2023 V2X 49 V2X 18 11-2020.02 5-2021.08-2020.08-2021.12 10-2020.10 2021 2035 5-2022.02-2021.04 6-2022.08 4-2021.05-2022.11 10-2021.07 5G 2021-2023 5G-2022.12 3-2021.07-2023.11 V2X 56 L4 50 57 AI V2G Vehicle-to-Grid V2G EV 51 59 V2G 58 V2G V2G-52 IFind 60 2016 2024 V2G 61 050000100000150000200000250000300000350000400000450000050100150200250300350:2024 4 6 2398 2.3 14 30 53 19 2024 4 6 1 2 3 BaaS 75/100kWh 728/1128 4 IT,93123172777130593605528912 62 93 12317277713059330 49605528912050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2021 63 54 EV 64 :55 V2G 66 V2G 2035 65 56 67 HarmonyOS Harmony OS Harmony OS OTA 4.0 20 Harmony OS Harmony OS 2.0 Harmony OS 3.0 Harmony OS 4.0 2021 6 2022 8 2023 11 IT OS OS 200 OS OS 57 69 68 OS V2X 58 70 59-1003016029042050018003100440057007000SW%,21 2024 1.2.3.1.800V 2.3.4.1.2./3.800V 1 2 3 4 800 V 71 60 72 73 800V 400V,800V 61 22 800V&800V 800VSiC10 1 1200V 600ASiC 800V800VSiC EMR4 SiC E-GMP 800V 800VHSM 55 SiC;800V800VXpowerSic SiC SiC G9 G6;800V;400V 400VSiC SiC ET7 ET5 ES7:SiC:800VSIC 400V/800V/EHPI 400V 800V 2022 800VSiC EHPI 800V800V SiC SiC 2024 2024 800V 800VSiC 2022 6 1200V1040 SiC SC U8 U9 800V 800VSIC 2023 400V/800V800VSiC/400VSiC SIC;001 009 400V 200kW SiC 800VSiC 400V350-400VSIC Model3 650V SIC MOSFET 800V 800VSIC SIC:SIC:SIC 800V 800V S HI 11 800V 800V 800V LS LS6,62 2023-2025 2026 580 1300 400V 400V 400V 800V 75 800V 76 800V 2023-2025,74 2023E-2026E 800V 2023-2025 12118832358022%28%38%50%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%02004006008001000120014002023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 800V 800V 800V PTC MCU 2C 150kW 950V 450V 6500 63 23:950V 450V 6500 450Vdc 2C 950Vdc 2C A1 A1+3500BMS A2 A2+300 A3 A3+2000OBC+DCDC A4 A4+800 A5 A5-500 A6 A6+400()PTC DCDC A7 A7+20 A A+6520 2023-2025 2023 1-11 243.9 83.4%23.7%2023 2024 Wind,77 64 2023 PLUS DM-i 2023.6 DM-i 2023.5 DM-i 2023.2 DM-p 2023.8 PLUS DM-i 2023.6 DM-i 2023.9 05 DM-i 2023.5 5 2023.11 DM-i 2024 Q05 2023 2023.12 A05 2024 2023.10 UNI-V iDD 2023.2 CS75 PLUS iDD 2023.8 SL03 2023.8 2023.2 2023.5 2023.10-500 2023.6 L7 2023.5 L6 2023.9 7 PLUS 2023.3 A8 2024.1 2023 2023.4 FREE 2023.8 M7 2023.9 M5 2023.4 M9 2023.12 L6 2024 C11 2023.3 C10 2024.1 S 2023.9 C 2023.9 C AMG 7 2023.8 2023.3 RAV4 E+2023.4,24-100-500501001502002503003500500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0002018-022018-062018-102019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-022023-062023-10%78 TOP10(2021)IHS 65 IHS 79(2021)80 WIFI 26.70%20.70%17.4%14.7%11.5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%,17%,21%,61%,1%HUD CMS 2023H1 856.13 92.13%81 2021-2027 IVI ICV Tank 6612.2212.7414.1214.9615.7216.3116.84.775.345.946.326.727.057.330246810121416182021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 IVI IVI 2021 30 80%15-30 50%15 10%31%82 ET7 67 83 ET5+84 Hella 3-8 8-20 12 AVAS 85 68 86 8 87 2023 7 0%20%40%60%80%100%05001000150020002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 0-3,12.0%4-7,42.8%8-12,26.5%13-16,10.8%16,7.9%69 88 89 Marklines,32%,14%,12%,7%TS TECH,5%,30%70 0 1 90 Cybertruck 91 Model Q,71 TPMS 92 S7 93 11 IT,72 IPD ONE L9/8/7&94 2022-2024 4 95 L6 iFinD,010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023 2024 73 DM 96 ATTO3 97 L,74 L7 08 L5/E8 007 S7 SU7 98 007 99 SU7,75 2023/25 2022.08 40%50%10%2023.03.03 Uallace Moreira 35%2023.09.15 2023.10.04 BBC 26 2023 2 4(28)2 14.52 3 4 4 2-3 5 6 7 7 7 100 8 9 10 40 10 Stellantis 51%:49%LeapmotorInternational 11 Geleximco 8 20 11 12 EV IACA 76 IPO 27 2030 800 2300 2600 13%2040 1350 3600 9400 66%,McKinsey,28 2023H1 GWH 46.04%65.74 29.44%42.04 7.61%10.86 4.23%6.04 2.49%3.55LGES 2.37%3.39 1.64%2.34 1.56%2.23 1.38%1.97 0.58%0.83 C-V2X 2023 11 17 2030 5000 to G RSU OBU 100 2021-2030 77 101 5928861255163620232368292936264157496001000200030004000500060002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E V2X 78 79 103()104:(,99.5%,/)Edmunds,wind,102,20.26 20.26 26.77 25.69 23.16 21.71 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 292018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 41.82%Edmunds 2023 2020 23.3%0.3/Wh 01020304050602020-05 2020-11 2021-05 2021-11 2022-05 2022-11 2023-05 2023-11399137044153428955002155 214620122337230054.01%57.93%48.45%54.48%41.82%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%01000200030004000500060002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 80 106 69 64 5710816126614 241950951540501001502002503003504004505002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 107 6 64 4 5723 2422415767010203040506070802018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 中国汽车出海的风险与挑战经济形势 准入门槛 关税壁垒 RCEP 运输运力2021 10 2023 YoY+65.3%443 YoY+17.5%74 2021 Auto 105 2021-2026 81 109 110,108,2024 2024 6.5 4.5 ACEA 2022 50%50%286634103913821863.9%8.1%13.4%16.1%15.0%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%020040060080010001200140016002020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1-2 127218248283388.3%14.2%18.3%18.5%15.2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%0501001502002503002020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1-2 3570106153262.0%3.8%6.2%8.3%9.0%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%0204060801001201401601802020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1-2 2021 880 130 B(2023 B B 48.3%)111 2017-2023 IT 82 Rime 112 2023()020406080100120140010020030040050060070080090010002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023()(),0.7%,2.9%A,26.6%B,18.1%C,6.1%D,6.0%,12.6%,26.3%,0.7%84 Z23834000),1 2 6 20%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 5-20%6 5%6 5%85 86 18 A 1199 16 230000 200135 0551 62207952 021 68869125 021 51097188: