20240514_光大证券_机械行业聚焦出海系列报告：OPE锂电化率超预期夏季去库进行时_20页.pdf
-1-2024 5 14 OPE OPE OPE 2023 35%10%2016 2020 OPE 201 2020 250 5.6%TraQline 2022 2012 55.4%32.8%13.4%44.9%2023 6 OPE 66%Home Depot LOWES Amazon Home Depot LOWES 50%Ryobi Craftsman Toro Stihl EGO OPE 2023 OPE+0.5%1 OPE 3-8 OPE 2 OPE 2024 OPE 3 OPE OPE 80%OPE 2024 2024 OPE 2023 2024 OPE 1 2 3 S0930520080005 0755-23915357 S0930512120001 021-52523851 021-52523853 300-30%-10%10%30%23/04 23/07 23/10 24/01 24/04机械行业 沪深300 Wind -2-1 OPE.5 2 OPE.9 2.1.9 2.2.13 3.16 3.1.16 3.2.19 4.19 WUAZzQnQtQoPsMoNqNoRoPaQ9RbRoMnNtRqMeRmMtOkPmNqN6MoOuNNZoMpOwMtQvN-3-1 OPE.5 2 2023.6 3 OPE.6 4 2012-2022 OPE%.6 5 OPE.7 6 OPE.7 7 OPE.7 8 2020 OPE.7 9 OPE.8 10 OPE.8 11.8 12.8 13 OPE.8 14.8 15/OPE.9 16.10 17.10 18.11 19.12 20.12 21.13 22 2024 1-4.13 23 2024 1-4.13 26 OPE.14 27 OPE.14 28.14 29.14 30.17 31.17 32.17 33.18 34.18 35.18 36.18 -4-1.6 2.9 3.10 4.11 5.14 kLWur3p0jSdwNQpS9Bk5RZKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MOUOjeDjga5jkvP6XK4DF3x-5-1 OPE OPE OPE OPE 1 OPE Home Depot 2023 35%10%12%-6-2 2023 35%12%10%10%17%16%2016 2020 OPE 201 2020 250 5.6%OPE OPE OPE 1/OPE 2020 16.9%2025 19.9%TraQline OPE 2022 6(38.3%)(34.3%)2022 2012 55.4%32.8%13.4%44.9%OPE 3 OPE 4 2012-2022 OPE%051015202530352016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E2022E2023E2024E2025E -7-OPE OPE OPE 2020 OPE OPE 35.0%65.0%2020 138 79 55%32%5 OPE 6 OPE 051015202530352016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E2022E2023E2024E2025E 051015202530352016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E2022E2023E2024E2025E 2020 OPE 91%2023 89%TraQline 2023 6 66%/212/182 7 OPE 8 2020 OPE 051015202530352016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E2022E2023E2024E2025E 20%12%11%10%10%8%7%4%MTD3%TORO3%12%OPE Home Depot LOWES 50%Amazon Ind.Power Dealer Walmart/OPE Ryobi Craftsman Toro Stihl EGO LOWES OPE KOBALT Home Depot Husky -8-9 OPE 10 OPE Home Depot29%LOWES24%Amazon9%Ind.Power Dealer8%Walmart7%Other23%Ryobi10%Craftsman8%Toro7%Stihl7%EGO5%Other63%TraQline 2022Q2-2023Q2 TraQline 2022Q2-2023Q2 DIY EGO SKIL 11 12 ODM B2C 13 OPE 14,20%,12%STIHL,14%Snow Joe&Sun Joe,74%Ryobi,23%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%STIHL Snow Joe&Sun JoeRyobi TraQline 2022Q2-2023Q2 -9-2 OPE 2.1 OPE FOB DDP EXW 15/OPE 5 3-4 2 3-4 5 yoy-yoy-yoy-2019 59274 37309 372473 2020 60141 41873 421003 1.5%12.2%13.0%2021 71767 46854 481171 19.3%11.9%14.3%2022 85829 50296 511690 19.6%7.3%6.3%2023 87220 50535 495165 1.6%0.5%-3.2%fred -10-16 00.511.522.5301000020000300004000050000600007000080000900001000002018-122019-022019-042019-062019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-02-/fred 2024.2 1-2 3 5 10 7-9 3 2019 6468-3284 1425-2753 2020 5479-5259 5001-447 2021 10176-1591 2259 1487 2022 14062-2199 1018-2547 2023 5119-8071 36-3667 2024.1-2 4346 fred 17-4000-3000-2000-100001000200030004000500060002400029000340003900044000490002019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-01-fred 2024.2 -11-2020 2 2020 4 2020 5+12.2%2021 2021+16.6%2021 2022 2022+38.2%11+5.7%2023+0.5%2024 2 3 2023 2023 11 2024 1-3 11.3%18-50%0%50%100%150%200%-20%0%20%40%2020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-03yoy-yoy-yoy-yoy-fred yoy-2024.3 2024.2 4 2020 1-2+3.9%+4.2%-12.8%3-8+12.4%+11.1%+8.7%9-10+18.0%+22.1%+72.4%11-12+23.1%+23.1%+29.1%2021 1-2+14.3%+17.7%+43.9%3-8+16.6%+19.2%+55.3%9-10+7.1%+4.0%+70.1%11-12+17.2%+17.2%+47.0%2022 1-2+12.0%+13.1%+32.3%3-8+5.7%+6.3%+7.2%9-10+8.9%+7.1%+3.5%11-12-3.5%-3.5%-22.8%-12-2023 1-2+2.5%-3.0%-28.8%3-8-3.8%-7.6%-34.9%9-10-4.9%-6.1%-46.5%11-12-5.5%-5.5%-20.6%2024 1-2-3.8%-2.6%+13.1%fred 2021-2023 2022 2021-2022 19-0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 200002500030000350004000045000500002019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-03-fred 2024.3-2024.2 20 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000:Wind 2024.4.26 -13-2024 2023 10-2024 2 2.2 1-2 2 1 3-8 2024 1-4 43.0 F 3.8 F 2024 1-4 10.95 1.48 130 11 21 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 fred 2024.2 22 2024 1-4 23 2024 1-4 NOAA NOAA -14-80%2024 1-4 3-8 2024 3-8 24 OPE 25 OPE TraQline 2022Q2-2023Q2 TraQline 2022Q2-2023Q2 TraQline OPE 80%61%11%OPE 26 27 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2010-012011-012012-012013-012014-012015-012016-012017-012018-012019-012020-012021-012022-012023-012024-01:30%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%130%150%170%190%210%2020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-01:yoy-:Wind 2024.5.2 Wind 2024.2 5 2023 2024Q1 2023 2023 2023 002444.SZ-13%29%109.30 69.69 64%2023 64%301260.SZ-11%5%46.17 45.28 98%301187.SZ-5%34%12.16 12.05 99%603583.SH 1%32%30.34 21.33 70%-15-002884.SZ-11%20%13.16 6.63 50%301345.SZ 21%49%21.44 15.29 71%Wind -16-3 OPE 1 OPE 3-8 OPE 2 OPE 2024 OPE 3 OPE OPE 80%2023 2024 2+3.1%2024 OPE OPE 2024 2024 OPE 2023 2024 OPE 3.1 2002 80%2023 1 -17-28 Amazon,Walmart,CTC,Costco,The Home Depot,Harbor Freight Tools,Bauhaus,Leroy Merlin stihl,Toro,B&S,stiga 2009 greenworks,POWER WORKS greenworks greenworks Amazon 2023 46.2-11.4%-4.7 2023 2024 Q1 16.4+5.5%1.3+48.5%29 30(20)(10)0 10 20 010203040502019 2020 2021 2022 2023%(70)(10)50 110 170 230 290-6-4-202462019 2020 2021 2022 2023%Wind Wind -18-2023 36.4+5.6%-3.8pct 21.8%ODM 9.5-44.9%-0.5pct 25.8%31 32 01020304050602019 2020 2021 2022 2023 01020304050602019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Wind Wind 2021-2023 2023 33 34-20-100102030402019 2020 2021 2022 2023(%)(%)-5%0%5%10%15%20%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%Wind Wind -19-3.2 OPE/OPE EGO FLEX SKIL 2022 19.9+13.2%1.4-3.6%2023 13.7-30.9%-0.4 2023 OPE 8.1-33.7%5.5-27.3%2023 9.4-37.3%2.8-11.0%1.0+1.1%4 1 10%-25%2 3 -20-6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%15%6-12 15%A 300 500 EverbrightSecurities(UK)CompanyLimited 1996 500 1508 3 2 7 6011 NEO A 17 33 28 EverbrightSecurities(UK)CompanyLimited 6thFloor,9AppoldStreet,London,UnitedKingdom,EC2A2AP
