请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明 industryId investSuggestion investSuggestionChange()relatedReport 20240418 20240315 20240228 emailAuthor S0190521080002 assAuthor summary EBITDA 14%2023 472 CR4 94%34%31%18%11%20%2023 36.1%45.1%40.1%30.2%26.6%35.7%31.0%27.2%6.0%7.0%6.9%1.7%EBITDA 14.1%13.7%14.0%6.9%CPI 2016-2021 0.89%CPI 0.36%2021-2023 3.20%CPI 2.85%2000-2020 CPI 2021-2023 20 90 EBITDA 2013-2017 20-25 PE CPI 20-25 PE title createTime1 2024 5 13 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-2-1.-3-2.-7-2.1 CPI.-7-2.2.-9-2.3.-12-2.4.-13-2.5.-15-3.-16-4.-16-1 2018-2023.-3-2 2023.-3-3 VS.CPI.-7-4 VS.CPI.-7-5 CPI VS.CPI.-8-6 VS.CPI.-8-7 VS.CPI.-9-8.-10-9.-11-10.-13-11.-13-12.-13-13 2023.-14-14 2018-2023.-14-15 2018-2023.-14-16 2018-2023.-14-17 2018-2023.-14-18 2018-2023 EBITDA.-14-19.-15-1.-4-2.-5-3.-6-4.-6-5.-10-6.-12-7.-16-ZXCXvMtOpMpOsMoNnQrOqRaQbPbRpNmMsQrNkPqQqNkPmNrN8OpPxOwMoMrOxNqQoR 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-3-1 2023 2023 CR4 94%34%31%18%11%1 2018-2023 2 2023 35%27%EBITDA 14%2023 27691+10%/29%/20%/25%/24%/2%2018-2023 CAGR 5.5%CAGR-2.5%CAGR-3.2%/CAGR-5.0%/1.9%2018-2023 CAGR 6.3%2018 38.5%2023 36.1%2018 28.1%2023 26.6%2018 10.4%2023 9.5%2018 12.7%2023 11.5%EBITDA 14%020406080100120140160180200 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A34%31%18%11%6%请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-4-1 45%35%EBITDA 2018-2023 EBITDA 13%-14%2023 21344+7%/32%/12%/13%/21%/22%2018-2023 CAGR 2.0%CAGR-0.6%/CAGR-2.0%/1.4%2018-2023 CAGR 1.3%2018 43.2%2023 45.1%2018 32.8%2023 35.7%EBITDA 2018-2023 EBITDA 13%-14%EBITDA 13%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 21203 20890 20278 22361 25111 27691/9194 8869 7583 7221 7862 8113/13032 12973 12832 13832 15893 17702/4938 4781 4637 5018 5633 5927/-1.5%-2.9%10.3%12.3%10.3%5.5%/-3.5%-14.5%-4.8%8.9%3.2%-2.5%/-0.5%-1.1%7.8%14.9%11.4%6.3%8170 7917 7446 8529 9218 9989/5957 5788 5768 6349 6780 7353/1257 1202 1173 1038 1086 1102/636 611 543 812 867 1003/749 757 817 882 1030 1049/1590 1596 1490 1716 1820 2032/559 555 608 676 694 753/1166 1066 1137 1224 1282 1413/2118 2014 1352 2119 2170 2450/-44-49-78-128-117-40/2073 1974 1254 1998 2060 2419/1509 1413 926 1538 1517 1660/1511 1422 928 1535 1516 1641/2214 2130 1678 2179 2438 2637/EBITDA 3185 3048 2694 3285 3624 3894/38.5%37.9%36.7%38.1%36.7%36.1%/28.1%27.7%28.4%28.4%27.0%26.6%/10.0%9.6%6.7%9.5%8.6%8.8%/7.1%6.8%4.6%6.9%6.0%6.0%/10.4%10.2%8.3%9.7%9.7%9.5%/12.7%11.9%10.6%9.8%10.1%11.5%/15.0%14.6%13.3%14.7%14.4%14.1%/Fjx5jJtwg12PV4vtXANnH5KvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MMUwaJYJOVGm+Rq7aQd6Zkk 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-5-2 EBITDA EBITDA 40%31%14%30%27%7%2023 32851+11%/48%/42%/10%2018-2023 CAGR 5.5%CAGR 6.3%CAGR-0.4%2018-2023 CAGR 6.9%2018 42.8%2023 40.1%2018 33.1%2023 31.0%2018-2023 EBITDA 14%2023 5186+8%/73%/23%/4%2018-2023 CAGR 1.0%CAGR 2.7%CAGR-0.7%/CAGR-2.2%/1.4%2018-2023 CAGR 1.5%2018 32.0%2023 30.2%2018 29.0%2023 27.2%2018-2023 EBITDA 2018 8.2%2023 6.9%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 19305 19413 18495 18216 19895 21344/6681 6650 6322 6383 6351 6481/211 214 211 207 201 191/171 172 164 157 153 144/32 31 30 31 32 34/10972 10937 10457 9987 10838 11709/0.6%-4.7%-1.5%9.2%7.3%2.0%/-0.3%-4.4%-4.5%8.5%8.0%1.3%/-0.5%-4.9%1.0%-0.5%2.0%-0.6%/1.4%-1.2%-2.0%-2.7%-5.2%-2.0%/-1.8%-3.8%3.0%2.3%7.6%1.4%8334 8476 8039 8228 9057 9635/6340 6568 6418 6574 7146 7620/1557 1593 1503 1631 1660 1658/1839 1830 1813 1895 2151 2339/693 726 739 594 594 557/581 662 645 696 743 849/282 388 385 382 419 427/1390 1369 1333 1376 1579 1790/1983 877 1029 681 1160 1503/2469 1168 1246 996 1914 1970/1952 814 998 684 1438 1504/1642 596 719 598 1110 1127/1993 1908 1621 1654 1912 2015/2799 2726 2440 2459 2777 2930/43.2%43.7%43.5%45.2%45.5%45.1%/32.8%33.8%34.7%36.1%35.9%35.7%/10.3%4.5%5.6%3.7%5.8%7.0%/10.1%4.2%5.4%3.8%7.2%7.0%/10.3%9.8%8.8%9.1%9.6%9.4%/14.5%14.0%13.2%13.5%14.0%13.7%/13.9%14.3%13.5%12.5%13.2%13.3%/请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-6-3 4 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 25173 25692 23676 25592 29701 32851/10159 10479 9770 10576 12459 13777/89 90 82 77 80 87/2665 2745 2593 2735 3114 3330/11727 11993 11093 12153 14681 16338/2.1%-7.8%8.1%16.1%10.6%5.5%/2.3%-7.5%9.6%20.8%11.3%6.9%/3.1%-6.8%8.3%17.8%10.6%6.3%/1.6%-8.9%-5.8%4.0%8.0%-0.4%10781 10954 9990 10704 11907 13183/8329 8403 7880 8302 9316 10187/3801 3859 3517 3787 4148 4408/2625 2664 2593 2689 3061 3376/470 602 596 562 594 622/1433 1278 1174 1264 1514 1780/2509 2596 2170 2475 2765 3172/2323 2415 2010 2374 2618 2974/1814 1824 1297 1554 1885 2281/1402 1409 1004 1140 1362 1727/2510 2585 2180 2519 2706 3169/EBITDA 3515 3853 3439 3757 4062 4583/42.8%42.6%42.2%41.8%40.1%40.1%/33.1%32.7%33.3%32.4%31.4%31.0%/10.0%10.1%9.2%9.7%9.3%9.7%/7.2%7.1%5.5%6.1%6.3%6.9%/10.0%10.1%9.2%9.8%9.1%9.6%/14.0%15.0%14.5%14.7%13.7%14.0%/2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 4939 4919 4347 4372 4784 5186/3300 3302 2854 2897 3346 3769/2036 2009 1785 1723 1825 1961/57 55 51 48 50 51/36 37 35 36 37 39/1166 1210 1061 1058 1143 1177/3356 3367 3026 3034 3392 3618/-0.4%-11.6%0.6%9.4%8.4%1.0%/0.3%-10.1%0.3%11.8%6.7%1.5%/0.1%-13.6%1.5%15.5%12.6%2.7%/-1.3%-11.1%-3.5%5.9%7.5%-0.7%/-2.7%-8.1%-4.4%3.2%1.6%-2.2%/1.4%-3.3%0.9%2.6%5.8%1.4%1583 1552 1321 1338 1392 1568/1431 1435 1279 1256 1299 1412/116 122-159 220 101 118/106 116-194 212 114 121/77 38-166 123 55 88/85 44-161 123 55 87/144 117 43 81 93 156/EBITDA 404 360 274 286 299 360/32.0%31.6%30.4%30.6%29.1%30.2%/29.0%29.2%29.4%28.7%27.2%27.2%/2.3%2.5%-3.7%5.0%2.1%2.3%/1.6%0.8%-3.8%2.8%1.2%1.7%/2.9%2.4%1.0%1.9%1.9%3.0%/8.2%7.3%6.3%6.6%6.2%6.9%/23.6%24.6%24.4%24.2%23.9%22.7%/请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-7-2 2.1 CPI 2009-2013 0.01%CPI-0.15%2016-2021 0.89%CPI 0.36%2021-2023 3.20%CPI 2.85%2015-2023 2016(IFRS)2016-2023 2016-2021 CAGR 0.89%CPI 0.36%2022 2021-2023 CPI CAGR 3.20%2.85%2009-2023 2009-2013 CAGR 0.01%CPI-0.15%2013-2019 2010-2016 2010-2023 2013-2021 CPI RTD 2022 CPI CPI 1998-2013 CPI CPI CAGR-0.67%-0.24%2013-2021 CPI CPI 2021 CPI 2020 10 2022-2023 CPI CPI CPI 3 VS.CPI 4 VS.CPI Wind Wind-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 yoy yoy CPI 2013-2021 2016-2021 CPI CAGR 0.89%0.36%CPI 2013-2019 2020 2021 1998-2013 2009-2013 CPI CAGR 0.01%-0.15%CPI2022-2023 2021-2023 CPI 3.20%2.85%CPI 2021-2023 CAGR 1.64%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 yoy yoy CPI 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-8-5 CPI VS.CPI Wind 21 20 CPI 2021-2023(2003-2013)CPI(2013-2018)CPI(2018-2023)CPI 2018-2023 CAGR 4.7%5.0%4.0%CPI 1.7%2021 2022 2023 CPI 0.9%2.0%0.2%2008-2023 CPI 2008-2017 CAGR CPI 2018 CAGR CPI 6 VS.CPI Wind-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%CPI CPI CPI CPI-5%0%5%10%15%20%2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 yoy yoy yoy CPI 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-9-7 VS.CPI Wind 2.2 20 90 1994 705.7 Super Dry RTD 1987 Super Dry 1998 TOP1 Super Dry 2003 The Premium Malts C 2007 Super Dry 1998 2002 70%2000 RTD RTD 1995 Super Chu-hi 2009 2010-196 RTD 2001 RTD 2022 15.1%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 yoy CPI 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-10-8 5 Super Dry+Super Dry 20 90 Super Dry Super Dry 1994 5 Super Dry 1995 Miller 2010 01002003004005006007008009001000 1994 1996 1993 1992-2002+670-700 2003 RTD Super Dry 1987 Super Dry 1919 2012 1990 1998 2002 greenlabel 70%RTD 2001 Strong Zero RTDThe PremiumMalts2003 C 2007 RTD-196 StrongZero20092010-196 9%“3%-196 RTD RTD 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-11-Super Dry 2010 2016 2017 Peroni()Grolsch()Urquell 2020(CUB)Super Dry 2023 59%31%9 20%2022 2 9 2022 71%Schweppes Australia 19.9%2017 17.99%2%Flavored Beverages Group Holdings Limited P&N Beverage Vodka Cruiser Independent Liquor Permanis Sdn.Bhd.Mill Liquorsave Etika International Holdings Limited SAB Miller Grolsch Meantime Peroni Nasto Azzuro 5 SAB Miller TOP1 TOP1 TOP1 TOP2 TOP1 2,3 174 Fuller,Smith&Turner P.L.C.5 Carlton&United Breweries 2011 Kirin Brewery of America,LLC Kirin President Brewery Co.,Ltd.Lion Nathan Limited Lion Pty Limited San Miguel Corp.Acecook Co.,Ltd.Vina Kirin Acecook San Miguel Brewery Interfood Schincariol Myanmar Brewery 24.5%New Belgium Brewing Company,Inc.Fermentum Pty Ltd Stone&Wood Bells Brewery 1983 1980 25%1990 Cerebos Pacific Morrison Bowmore Distillers LTD Frucor Orangina Schweppes ASC 70%Chteau Beychevelle 50%Lucozade Ribena Beam Jim Beam Makers Mark Knob Creek Courvoisier Sauza 1964 1977 POKKA 1984 Sapporo U.S.A.SLEEMAN BREWERIES Silver Springs Citrus 2019 Anchor Brewing Company,LLC Stone Brewing1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026朝日 麒麟 三得利 札幌 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-12-2023 1664 6 2.3 20%50%KA 2022 13.6 3.8/2008-2022 CAGR 0.5%0.3%2022 3.3 1.6/2008-2022 CAGR 7.3%5.9%请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-13-10 Wind 11 12 2.4 EBITDA 20%6%2023 36.1%2023 41.4%38.7%2023 KA 100%-200%100%40%-100%10%-30%10%-15%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E-02468101214162008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/-请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-14-17.7%2023 20.7%13.9%EBITDA EBITDA 13%-14%EBITDA 2018 11.3%2023 19.0%EBITDA 2018 15.9%2023 22.9%13 2023 14 2018-2023 Tax Foundation 15 2018-2023 16 2018-2023 SG&A+17 2018-2023 18 2018-2023 EBITDA 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%012345678/-0%5%10%15%20%25%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 0%5%10%15%20%25%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-15-2.5 2013-2017 2013-2017 20-25 PE 2007-2012 1.5%5.0%3%2009 Schweppes 25 15 2013-2017 5.0%CAGR 22.9%2013 3.6%2017 6.8%20-25 2021-2023 CUB CAGR 11.3%CAGR 3.4%6%15-20 19 051015202530(P/E)BEst 2007-2012 CAGR 1.5%5.0%3%+15 2013-2017 CAGR 5.0%22.9%+3.6%6.8%20-25 2021-2023 CAGR 11.3%3.4%CUB 10%+15-20 2020-2.9%-34.5%2020 10 6 CUB 25 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-16-3 CPI CPI 20-25 PE 7 Wind 4 1 2 3 2024/5/10 24E 25E 24E 25E 24E 25E00291.HK 38.2 1237.7 2.05 2.37 11.0 9.8 18.6 16.1600600.SH 86.5 1180.0 3.73 4.32 13.4 11.9 23.2 20.0000729.SZ 10.2 286.4 0.32 0.42 14.4 11.9 31.7 24.0600132.SH 74.1 358.6 2.97 3.26 18.0 16.6 24.9 22.7002461.SZ 8.5 189.0 0.35 0.40 17.6 15.3 24.7 21.5 EV/EBITDA PE 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-17-()12()300 50 500 15%5%15%-5%5%-5%/(1934 15a-6)/36 15 200135 6 SK 32 01-08 100020 5001 T2 52 518035