20240506_华创证券_传媒互联网行业：港股仍处于估值低位利润与现金流进入高质量发展阶段；持续关注恒生科技配置机会_14页.pdf
2009 1210 2024 05 06 4 22 9 21.15%1 2 EPS 3 EPS+PE-TTM 9.4x 225 500 22.0 x 25.5x 24.3x 40.5x 3 PMI 2 PMI 9 22 23 19 23 22 23 19 1-S-W 2 beta-W+MAC 24+-SW 24 AI EPS PE PB 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 364.4 15.50 17.02 18.53 21.3 19.4 17.8 3.3-S 157.1 9.62 10.40 11.01 14.8 13.7 12.9 2.7 14.8-0.66 3.81 8.62 n/a 27.3 12.1 4.3-W 62.2 2.50 3.71 4.66 22.7 15.2 12.1 3.3-W 119.7 4.07 6.30 7.89 26.7 17.2 13.8 3.1 Wind 24 5 3 010-63214660 S0360521010001 S0360523060003 S0360524010004%()143 0.02()13,860.41 1.56()12,328.17 1.77%1M 6M 12M-5.7%-4.4%-27.5%-7.6%-5.0%-16.9%20240422-20240426 AI Vidu 2024-04-28 20240415-20240419 Meta AI Llama 3 AI Q1 2024-04-21 20240408-20240412 AI AI Q1 2024-04-15-44%-29%-14%1%23/05 23/07 23/09 23/12 24/02 24/042023-05-042024-04-30 300 2009 1210 2.4.4.5.7.7.7.8+.9-SW.10 24 Ai.10.11 XVAZuNqNtQoPsMpMsPqPoP7N8Q7NnPqQsQmQfQoOtOfQnNuN6MpPvNMYmQsRMYqMnP 2009 1210 3 1 2024 5 3.4 2 2020 225 500 PE-TTM MA5.5 3 2020 8 PE TTM MA5.5 4 2018-2023.6 5 2019-2023.6 6 2019-2023.6 7 2023 1-2024 4 PMI.6 8 1Q21-4Q23.7 9 2018-2023.7 10 19Q4-23Q4 Non-IFRS/.8 11 19Q4-23Q4 Non-IFRS/.8 12 19Q4-23Q4.8 13 19Q4-23Q4 GMV.8 14 1Q22-4Q23.9 15 1Q21-4Q23.9 16.10 17.10 18 1Q21-4Q23.10 19 1Q21-4Q23 DAU.10 20.11 21 AI.11 2009 1210 4 9 13.88%4 22 9 21.15%1 2 EPS 3 EPS+10 1 2024 5 3 10 20 60 120 3 CIHK5022.WI HK()-4.6%22.4%13.5%5.1%-12.0%-35.1%CIHK5027.WI HK()-15.7%22.2%12.9%16.4%-18.0%-62.0%CIHK5028.WI HK()24.2%19.8%18.2%34.9%15.6%-41.6%CIHK5023.WI HK()-2.5%18.0%12.5%15.0%-4.2%-54.7%CIHK5015.WI HK()26.7%16.8%11.9%47.6%3.6%-49.6%CIHK5008.WI HK()-0.3%12.6%7.1%24.6%-10.2%-61.9%CIHK5017.WI HK()14.7%12.6%8.1%30.5%0.7%-39.1%CIHK5018.WI HK()-14.5%12.6%6.5%8.8%-25.6%-63.5%CIHK5000.WI 10.1%12.0%10.2%20.6%5.5%-28.4%CIHK5016.WI HK()42.5%10.5%22.0%41.6%40.6%9.6%CIHK5029.WI HK()3.7%10.4%-3.7%3.7%-1.5%-59.1%CIHK5025.WI HK()4.1%10.2%11.9%33.3%1.3%-37.6%CIHK5019.WI HK()-3.1%9.8%3.5%10.1%-11.6%-30.4%CIHK5024.WI HK()-0.9%9.2%5.5%5.2%4.1%-23.7%CIHK5006.WI HK()-4.2%8.3%4.7%23.0%-10.2%-69.8%CIHK5030.WI HK()-0.7%8.2%3.6%4.1%6.5%0.0%CIHK5009.WI HK()4.3%7.8%6.1%20.2%5.2%-74.3%CIHK5014.WI HK()-2.1%7.5%-5.3%7.2%-1.1%-33.2%CIHK5001.WI HK()45.7%7.5%4.6%35.3%45.3%190.1%CIHK5021.WI HK()14.1%7.4%9.4%17.5%17.9%20.3%CIHK5013.WI HK()-3.5%7.3%9.6%21.9%-11.1%-36.9%CIHK5020.WI HK()4.9%4.7%6.4%16.7%10.8%-16.7%CIHK5004.WI HK()5.5%3.9%5.8%10.2%7.4%-30.6%CIHK5012.WI HK()1.1%3.9%6.1%12.3%-1.1%-19.3%CIHK5011.WI HK()8.6%3.8%-5.0%33.6%0.7%-39.3%TxHi0avhiJus/5l+xXm0RpKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MOgS48u0Y4VSGnWDyeftrUX 2009 1210 5 CIHK5003.WI HK()45.0%2.3%7.5%63.2%45.4%18.0%CIHK5026.WI HK()8.4%0.9%2.7%6.0%12.3%60.6%CIHK5007.WI HK()8.3%0.6%0.2%13.7%3.8%47.5%CIHK5005.WI HK()-15.7%0.2%-0.3%-1.9%-22.9%-62.0%CIHK5010.WI HK()13.6%-0.3%3.1%24.9%27.2%-31.1%CIHK5002.WI HK()15.9%-1.6%3.2%6.8%31.5%149.2%wind PE-TTM 9.4x 225 500 22.0 x 25.5x 24.3x 40.5x 2 2020 225 500 PE-TTM MA5 3 2020 8 PE TTM MA5 Wind Wind 22 23 19 23 22 23 19-5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24日经225 标普500 恒生指数-10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24纳斯达克 恒生科技 2009 1210 6 4 2018-2023 5 2019-2023 Wind Wind 6 2019-2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 VS 2019 YOY-%26%24%29%9%8%189%YOY-%38%44%-18%1%56%186%-%11%13%8%7%11%-0.2%YOY-%16%24%-68%12%279%167%6%7%9%12%11%+4.8%Wind NON-GAAP 3 PMI 2 PMI 9 7 2023 1-2024 4 PMI Wind-500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000-5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023营业收入（左轴）经营现金流 现金分红经调整归母净利润 股权自由现金流-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023营业收入YOY-%归母净利润率-%分红现金比例（%）归母净利润YOY-%股权自由现金流YOY-%（右轴）4547495153555759:PMI:PMI:2009 1210 7 1-S-W 2 beta-W DNFM 5 21 M 23 Gamelook SUPERCELL AI 2023 490 2024 1000 8 1Q21-4Q23 9 2018-2023 23Q2 23Q4 Non-IFRS 36.08 43.62 Non-IFRS 22Q1 23Q4 53.1%/11.1%/13.4%23Q4 129 616 447-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%-200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,8001Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23收入（亿元）NON-IFRS 归母净利润（亿 元）收入YOY-%利润YoY-%0%5%10%15%20%25%-50 100 150 200 250 300 3502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023现金分红（亿元）分红率-%2009 1210 8 10 19Q4-23Q4 Non-IFRS/11 19Q4-23Q4 Non-IFRS/Wind Wind MAC 1 ad load eCPM GMV 24-26 22%/14%/8%2+GMV 24-26 GMV 25%/22%/15%28%/22%/15%12 19Q4-23Q4 13 19Q4-23Q4 GMV 24 1 2023 Q1-Q4 14.9%/31.6%/23%/25.2%36.08 43.62-700-600-500-400-300-200-100010019Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q4净利润（亿元）Non-IFRS 净利润（亿元）53.11%11.08%13.40%-400%-300%-200%-100%0%100%19Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q4毛利率（%）净利率（%）Non-IFRS 净利率（%）21%0%50%100%150%200%05010015020019Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q4线上营销服务（亿元，左 轴）YOY（%，右轴）29%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,00019Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q4电商GMV（亿元，左轴）YOY（%，右轴）2009 1210 9 24 15%2 OPM GTV 24 GTV 40%3+14 1Q22-4Q23 15 1Q21-4Q23+20212022 2022 Q4 2023 2024 H2-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%01002003004005006007008009001Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23营业总收入（亿）YoY-25%-15%-5%5%15%25%-100-500501001501Q212Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23核心本地商业OP（亿元）新业务OP（亿元）核心本地商业OPM（%）2009 1210 10 16 17-SW SLG 4 17 1-2 Q2 23Q4 DAU 1 YOY+8%22Q3 6 NON-GAAP 18 1Q21-4Q23 19 1Q21-4Q23 DAU 24 Ai 24 1 34.6 2 24 3 2/(/)24/5/4 1376/256/200/452-3,000-2,000-1,000-1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,0002021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4营业收入（百万元）NON-GAAP 归母净利润（百万元）0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%-20 40 60 80 100 1202021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4DAU（百万）YOY-%2009 1210 11 AI 1 AI C AI APP AIGC IP 2 2023 12 5 2024 1 15 20 21 AI APP 2009 1210 12 2015-2016 2016-2019 2019-2020 TMT 2016/2017 2016 2016 2017 2017 2019 WIND 2021 2023 2023 2024 2023 21 2023 Wind 11 2024 2009 1210 13 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 14 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
