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20240503_国盛证券_建筑装饰行业：营收业绩维持稳健Q2增长有望提速_53页.pdf

|2024 05 03 Q2 23Q4 2023/6.6%/5.4%0.8/6.9pct 2023Q4/7%/28%Q3 0.7/36pct 2024Q1/+1.2%/-3.3%23 1 2023 11.0%0.08pct Q4 0.4pct 6.24%0.05pct 2/3 ROE ROE 8.31%0.16pct PPP 4 2023 1709 389+813 1007 24Q1 PPP 2023 22.5%8%7.8%101%24%11%6%1/8%/6%Q4+16%24Q1/YoY+2.5%/0.7%7%23 24 2 23 23%/24%3 4/1 Q2 2 3 S0680518030004 S0680518010002 S0680518010003 S0680519070003 S0680122060010 1 2023 Q3 Q4 2023-11-03 2 2023 2023-09-03 EPS P E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 601390.SH 1.35 1.52 1.65 1.78 4.87 4.32 3.98 3.69 601800.SH 1.46 1.57 1.67 1.78 6.09 5.66 5.32 4.99 601186.SH 1.92 2.08 2.22 2.35 4.42 4.08 3.82 3.61 601668.SH 1.30 1.37 1.44 1.50 4.12 3.91 3.72 3.57 600970.SH 1.10 1.27 1.47 1.65 11.54 9.99 8.63 7.69 000065.SZ 0.92 1.04 1.31 1.49 13.15 11.63 9.24 8.12 601117.SH 0.89 0.98 1.12 1.31 7.75 7.04 6.16 5.27 Wind-48%-32%-16%0%16%2023-05 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 300 2024 05 03 P.2 1.5 1.1.23Q4 24Q1.5 1.2.7 1.3.12 1.4.13 2.17 3.19 3.1.19 3.2.23 3.3.27 3.4.30 3.5.34 4.38 4.1.38 4.2.40 4.2.1.Q1 Q2.40 4.2.2.Q1.40 4.2.3.41 4.2.4.Q1 Q2.42 4.2.5.Q4.42 4.2.6.Q4 35%.43 4.2.7.Q1.44 4.2.8.Q1.45 4.2.9.46 4.2.10.Q4.46 4.2.11.47 4.2.12.48 4.2.13.Q1 30%.49 4.2.14.97%7.1%.50 5.52 1.5 2.5 3.6 4.6 5.6 6.7 7.7 8.8 9.8 10.9 11.9 ZXFUvMrMmPmNsMtQnQsNqRaQbP9PoMpPsQsOfQpPrMlOpPpR9PpPzRxNsOsMwMtOsM 2024 05 03 P.3 12.9 13.10 14.10 15.10 16 ROE.11 17 ROE.11 18 ROE.11 19.12 20.12 21.13 22.13 23.13 24.13 25.14 26.14 27/.14 28/.14 29.15 30.15 31/.15 32/.16 33.16 34 2022-2024Q1%.18 35 2022-2024Q1%.18 36.19 37.19 38.20 39.20 40.20 41.21 42.22 43.23 44.23 45.24 46.24 47.24 48.24 49.25 50.25 51.26 52.26 53.27 54.27 55.27 56.28 57.28 2024 05 03 P.4 58.29 59.29 60.30 61.30 62.30 63.31 64.31 65.32 66.33 67.34 68.34 69.34 70.35 71.35 72.35 73.36 74.37 75.39 HVtsy/5IQldVLxwe2AUln5KvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MMqTFK1ITNkTwLZXukcAxRY 2024 05 03 P.5 1.1.1.23Q4 24Q1 23Q4 2023/6.6%/5.4%0.8/6.9pct 22Q4 4.3%2023Q4/7%/28%Q3 0.7/35.5pct Q1 Q2 2024Q1 1.2%5.8pct Q1 3.3%15pct 11292 Q1 78%1 Wind 2 Wind 5.05.410.59.815.412.414.97.46.60246810121416182015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%7.311.218.74.97.54.5-5.112.25.4-10-5051015202015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%2024 05 03 P.6 3 Wind 4 Wind 5 Wind 55.430.021.314.913.99.2 8.77.4 7.06.3 6.3 6.61.2-551525354555652021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1%13.855.414.97.11.813.95.47.74.37.05.66.57.11.201020304050602020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1%-33.0-8.5-0.14.584.734.621.6-5.110.05.6 4.912.2 11.64.40.65.4-3.3-40-200204060801002020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1%2024 05 03 P.7 6 Wind 1.2.23 24Q1 2023 11.0%2022 0.08pct Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4+0.06/-0.03/-0.12/+0.38pct Q4 2024Q1 9.35%0.11pct 1 2 7 Wind 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2.46%0.12pct 0.11pct 14 Wind 15 Wind 44.555.566.572020Q1 2020Q3 2021Q1 2021Q3 2022Q1 2022Q3 2023Q1 2023Q3 2024Q1%2.77%2.94%3.16%3.02%2.82%2.60%2.15%2.23%2.22%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2.2%2.6%2.7%2.6%2.6%2.7%2.7%2.1%2.5%2.6%2.6%2.2%2.6%2.6%2.5%2.2%2.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%2020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1 2024 05 03 P.11 ROE 2023 8.31%0.16pct 2023 2.22%0.01pct 0.67 0.02 5.60 0.13 ROE PPP ROE 16 ROE Wind 17 ROE Wind 18 ROE Wind 11.78%11.23%11.61%10.72%10.16%9.45%8.13%8.46%8.31%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023ROE2.61 1.28 2.82 2.57 2.82 2.09 2.79 2.33 0.85 2.12 2.66 2.26 1.41 2.18 2.42 1.94 1.68 1.96 0123 ROE 2014 13.05%2.65%0.84 5.86 961 36210 43165 73622015 11.78%2.77%0.77 5.51 1061 38363 49595 90052016 11.23%2.94%0.72 5.34 1210 41213 57535 107772017 11.61%3.16%0.70 5.28 1450 45956 66013 124932018 10.72%3.02%0.67 5.27 1529 50558 75174 142602019 10.16%2.82%0.68 5.28 1647 58390 85570 162072020 9.45%2.60%0.69 5.30 1734 66750 97203 183452021 8.13%2.15%0.71 5.38 1650 76890 109054 202802022 8.46%2.23%0.69 5.47 1879 84131 121425 222012023 8.31%2.22%0.67 5.60 2012 90621 135632 24217 ROE 2024 05 03 P.12 1.3.2023 75.4%2022 0.8pct 2024Q1 75.4%0.62pct 19 Wind 20 Wind/2023/2.16/5.63 0.07/0.35 2024Q1 0.46/1.17 0.04/0.17 77.777.576.475.674.673.7 73.774.675.47172737475767778792015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%74.675.174.973.773.974.3 74.373.774.174.874.974.674.875.6 75.675.475.472.57373.57474.57575.5762020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1%2024 05 03 P.13 21 22 Wind Wind 23 24 Wind Wind 1.4.2023 1709 389 2023Q4 4554 35 2023 1.9%2022 0.61pct 84.9%26.7pct 2024Q1 4381 984 2023 4085 424+2376 813 781 1007 Q2 PPP 2.242.242.222.282.262.262.222.162.052.12.152.22.252.32016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 4.884.68 4.674.995.626.006.225.985.63012345672015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0.360.500.510.500.4600.10.20.30.40.50.62020Q1 2021Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1 2024Q1()1.001.401.361.341.1700.20.40.60.811.21.41.62020Q1 2021Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1 2024Q1 2024 05 03 P.14 25 Wind 26 Wind 27/28/Wind Wind 871 2178 3037 1095 1139 1066 2304 760 2098 1709-1521-1632-1654-3163-3193-3350-4389-3729-3661-4085-649 547 1383-2068-2054-2284-2085-2969-1563-2376-5000-4000-3000-2000-1000010002000300040002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023+-696-641 1117 895-235-839-374 1788 781-1000-50005001000150020002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2.31.83.51.02.51.900.511.522.533.542018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/%74.564.7132.846.1111.784.90204060801001201402018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/%2024 05 03 P.15 29 Wind 30 Wind 31/Wind 94979810110010110099968890929496981001022015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 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2024 05 03 P.18 34 2022-2024Q1%Wind 35 2022-2024Q1%Wind 101%2022 2023Q1 2023Q3 2023 2024Q1 2023 2022 2024Q1 2023Q1 11.3 26.8 20.6 22.5-2.9 11.2-29.7 8.5 7.2 6.7 8.0 2.5-0.5-4.6 3.3 17.9 9.4 7.8-12.2 4.5-30.2-6.9 1.0 1.6 5.4 14.0 12.2 13.0 2.6-0.9 4.5 3.3 20.5 0.7 21.4-7.5 1.0-0.8 0.3-9.6 7.8-10.6-12.4-2.3 0.5 0.0-0.2 12.4 2.1 7.6 8.8 5.8 0.0-6.9-7.7-15.7 3.7-10.6-1.2-0.2 3.9-3.8 14.5 PPP-24.3-17.5-16.9-24.0-16.9 0.3 0.6 2024 05 03 P.19 3.3.1.2023 2024Q1 Q2 2023 8%/6%2022-0.5/-1.8pct Q1-4 7.2%/4.7%/8.6%/11.5%+10.8%/+0.1%/-1.9%/+16.2%Q4 0.5pct 2024Q1 2.5%/0.7%1 Q1 2 36 37 Wind Wind 0246810121416182015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023(%)0246810121416182015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023(%)2024 05 03 P.20 38 Wind 39 Wind 40 Wind-30-20-100102030405060702017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1(%)(%)-20-1001020304050602017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1(%)-30-20-100102030405060702017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1(%)2024 05 03 P.21 Q4 2023 1 2023/9.5%/7.1%+0.4 pct Q4 25%/15%2 2023 5.1%/3%/18%23.6%58%REITs Q4 130%3 2023/10.2%/6.5%Q4 43%22Q4-46%4 2023 6.4%14%Q4 24%2024Q1 2024Q1 1 2024Q1 0.2%/10%Q1 2 2024Q1 2.6%/5.0%Q1 41 2022 2023 21-23 23Q1 24Q1 2022 2023 21-23 23Q1 24Q1 5.02%5.10%5.06%2.61%0.18%6.16%23.61%14.56%9.60%10.00%18.42%10.34%14.30%10.09%0.37%14.48%16.07%15.27%20.15%9.60%1.23%6.43%3.80%0.66%5.14%15.93%13.59%14.75%8.70%0.79%7.56%9.45%8.50%2.07%-2.56%13.25%7.07%10.11%3.84%-5.04%8.58%10.24%9.41%8.12%4.67%-1.16%6.50%2.60%14.11%1.20%13.67%10.82%12.24%24.19%10.04%20.07%2.07%10.70%17.83%31.71%14.88%13.10%13.99%20.63%5.54%16.87%0.20%8.22%13.69%9.50%7.48%3.80%5.63%3.43%0.52%7.90%-2.19%2.73%5.10%1.98%18.40%6.95%12.53%22.39%3.81%22.66%-15.63%1.73%25.77%-20.56%Wind 2023 2023 2022 0.11 pct YoY-0.6pct 1 2023 YOY+1.0 pct/YOY+0.5/5/4/6 pct/0.7/3.1 pct 2 2023 YOY+0.9 pct 3 2023 YOY-2024 05 03 P.22 0.6 pct/0.7/0.6/0.8pct 0.04 pct/YoY+0.02/-0.05/+0.03/-0.04 pct 2022 0.09 pct 3.02%0.03 pct 1.74%2022 0.58 pct/4.2/4.2/1.5 pct/3.3/2.1/1.7 pct 2023 74.9%YoY+0.76 pct/+0.22/-0.42 2024Q1 2024Q1 8.97%0.13 pct YoY+0.01 pct/YoY-0.01/+0.03/+0.03/-0.05 pct/5.3 pct 2024Q1 75.3%0.65 pct 42 2022 2023Q3 2023 2023Q1 2024Q1 2023-2022 2024Q1-2023Q1(%)10.56 9.64 10.67 9.09 8.97 0.11-0.13/(%)0.46 0.34 0.45 0.36 0.33-0.01-0.03(%)0.41 0.39 0.43 0.40 0.40 0.02-0.01(%)2.15 1.98 2.11 2.15 2.18-0.05 0.03(%)0.58 0.64 0.61 0.72 0.75 0.03 0.03(%)2.68 2.21 2.65 1.58 1.52-0.04-0.05(%)5.83 5.21 5.79 4.85 4.85-0.04 0.01/(%)0.76 0.45 0.85 0.23 0.23 0.09 0.00(%)3.05 3.05 3.02 3.10 3.01-0.03-0.09/(%)2.32-4.45 1.74-15.19-20.50-0.58-5.31(%)100.22 96.85 96.93 97.47 97.34-3.30-0.14 7.87 5.19 7.44 1.78 1.55-0.42-0.23 3.99 2.99 4.20 0.98 0.96 0.22-0.01(%)74.17 75.40 74.93 74.69 75.34 0.76 0.65 Wind ROE 2023 2023 2023 5.6%GDP 5.2%2022 5.1 pct 1.7%0.6 pct ROE 9.8%0.4 pct 0.04 pct 0.02 0.09 ROE 74.9%0.8 pct 469/30/2024 05 03 P.23 ROE 43 Wind 2024Q1 2024Q1 39756 6.8%23Q1 13.3%/23.5%/22.3%/17.1%21.6/10.5 pct/27.5/17.0/13.8 pct 22Q1/23Q1 84%/10%Q1 44 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023Q1 2024Q1 24Q1-23Q1 6.8%11.6%12.2%12.7%10.6%11.6%16.4%14.3%-2.1%8.1%10.8%18.9%21.6%13.7%17.6%6.3%10.8%4.5%27.9%20.4%4.7%11.1%2.2%6.6%10.2%-6.9%-17.0%26.7%27.3%10.4%15.1%1.5%8.1%15.8%2.1%-13.8%18.3%29.4%18.1%11.7%5.9%8.7%2.1%-2.7%-4.8%56.7%10.5%7.4%10.1%10.0%10.1%0.7%22.3%21.6%12.7%11.0%51.0%20.2%22.4%21.3%22.0%23.5%1.6%12.3%31.5%15.9%29.3%13.2%21.0%30.2%2.7%-27.5%13.0%13.3%12.9%12.0%8.6%10.3%6.6%17.1%10.5%3.2.2023 24Q1 2023 22.5%/24.0%2022 11/18 pct 1 2 2024Q1/-2.9%/+8.2%2022 2023 pct)2022 2023 pct)2022 2023 pct)2022 2023 pct)2022 2023 pct)2022 2023-12.1%4.7%16.8 0.2%0.5%0.3 14.0%13.4%-0.6 74.4%74.8%0.5 2.4%2.0%-0.4 537 592 5413.3%8.2%-5.1 3.8%3.0%-0.7 10.9%10.6%-0.3 73.8%74.9%1.1 2.4%2.4%0.0 388 422 347.6%2.7%-5.0 5.1%1.8%-3.3 9.5%8.7%-0.8 74.7%74.9%0.2 2.3%2.3%0.1 407 425 197.7%16.3%8.6 0.1%1.6%1.5 7.0%8.2%1.1 71.8%72.7%0.9 3.2%3.6%0.4 528 524-49.8%-10.6%-20.4 3.1%0.9%-2.1 9.0%6.5%-2.5 72.3%74.6%2.3 3.2%3.1%-0.05 602 638 3611.0%3.0%-8.0 1.0%5.1%4.2 10.7%9.8%-0.9 70.0%70.8%0.7 3.5%3.5%-0.002 339 367 283.7%8.7%5.0 5.4%3.7%-1.7 8.3%8.3%0.1 76.9%77.5%0.6 3.6%3.8%0.2 349 369 204.8%2.4%-2.3 2.2%2.3%0.2 8.0%7.5%-0.4 74.8%76.0%1.2 2.8%3.2%0.3 319 347 2811.5%3.9%-7.6-4.4%-0.3%4.2 7.7%7.7%0.0 82.2%82.1%-0.1 1.6%2.6%1.0 229 243 14 0.5%5.6%5.1 2.3%1.7%-0.6 10.1%9.8%-0.4 74.2%74.9%0.8 2.7%2.7%-0.03 438 469 30 ROE 2024 05 03 P.24 23Q1+26.8%22Q1-24Q1 11%45 46 Wind Wind 47 Wind 48 Wind-10-505101520252015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023(%)-60-40-200204060802015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023(%)-100-500501001502017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1(%)(%)-30-20-1001020302017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1(%)2024 05 03 P.25 49 Wind 2023 60%/44%/41%50%/44%/21%1 2023/6.9%/14.7%Q4 11%/34%2024Q1/2.7%/3.1%2 2023/60%/44%2024Q1 23Q1 85%3 2023 40.9%/25%/80%20.6%50 2022 2023 21-23 23Q1 24Q1 2022 2023 21-23 23Q1 24Q1 8.63%16.30%12.40%9.78%2.30%28.80%50.23%39.10%31.90%6.61%2.94%59.96%28.32%95.35%4.63%1.97%44.31%21.31%84.87%36.07%95.50%-27.35%19.18%96.64%-59.95%-4269%20.97%-2481%-12.55%18.00%40.92%28.95%67.50%-4.07%-2.74%20.58%8.29%61.64%3.26%6.25%6.94%6.60%0.63%2.74%21.06%14.74%17.86%5.52%3.08%20.50%44.33%31.88%-17.01%42.42%155.61%11.04%68.47%-72.88%5.52%12.47%27.25%19.63%9.08%-15.27%18.26%7.77%12.90%56.27%0.67%Wind 2023 2023 14.2%0.15 pct 1 2023 19.4%2.5 pct 2 2023 10.3%3.4 pct 1.1/9.7pct 2023-100-500501001502002502017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1(%)2024 05 03 P.26 0.63 pct/-0.11/-0.41/+0.09/+1.06 pct 1 2 0.81 pct 0.6 pct/0.42/2.42 2022 1.7 pct 2024Q1 15.5%1.7 pct 0.9 pct 0.3 pct 1.39 pct 51 2022 2023Q3 2023 2023Q1 2024Q1 2023-2022 2024Q1-2023Q1(%)14.05 14.13 14.20 13.80 15.48 0.15 1.68/(%)0.29 0.31 0.33 0.28 0.27 0.04-0.01(%)1.35 1.25 1.23 1.31 1.39-0.11 0.08(%)4.10 3.52 3.69 3.39 3.96-0.41 0.57(%)-1.03-0.23 0.03 1.03 0.84 1.06-0.19(%)2.60 2.74 2.69 1.95 2.39 0.09 0.44(%)7.02 7.29 7.64 7.67 8.58 0.63 0.90/(%)1.67 0.26 1.06 0.38 0.04-0.60-0.34(%)4.39 5.13 4.51 5.01 5.42 0.12 0.41/(%)4.60-1.81 5.41-9.29-17.46 0.81-8.17(%)93.21 86.42 86.90 79.54 73.83-6.31-5.71 4.63 3.41 5.05 1.17 0.93 0.42-0.24 7.71 6.20 10.13 2.13 2.04 2.42-0.09(%)63.46 62.39 61.74 62.53 61.14-1.71-1.39 Wind 2023 24Q1 2023 2023 616 18%/-8%/+55%/21%/14%/14%/55%/28%/27%2024Q1+48%52 2022 2023 2023 2023Q1 2024Q1 2024Q1/192.7 214.9 11.5%56.7 48.4-14.7%6.4 144.3 183.4 27.1%16.1 1.8-89.0%4.8 184.0 192.6 4.7%40.6 60.2 48.2%1.4 515.1 616.4 18%217.4 212.2-2.4%1.2 7 2024 05 03 P.27 3.3.2023/+8%/-7%2022+5/-37pct 2023Q4/4%/44%Q3-1/+67pct Q4 2023Q4 2024Q1/-12%/-24%Q1 2024 4 PMI 50.4 3 2 53 54 Wind Wind 55 Wind-5051015202530352015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2

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