20240303_海通证券_证券行业2023年年报前瞻:市场活跃度维持高位自营改善驱动业绩增长_16页.pdf
Table_MainInfo/2024 03 03 Table_InvestInfo Table_QuoteInfo-15.20%-8.50%-1.79%4.91%11.62%18.32%2023/3 2023/6 2023/9 2023/12 Table_ReportInfo 2024.01.29 2023.12.14 2023.11.08 Table_AuthorInfo:Tel:(010)50949926 Email:S0850515040002:Tel:(021)23185695 Email:2023 Table_Summary 2023 9625 4%IPO 2022 2023 4%2023 1 2023 9625 4%2023 8 2023 116 2022 123 5%2 2023 1.65 7%270%3 IPO 2023 313 IPO 27%3565 39%11.4 2022 11.7 17%4 2023 5790 20%150 76%1406 49%333 23%5 2023 13.3 28%ABS-45%25%21%5%6 2022 2023 300 11.38%2022 21.63%2023 19.41%2022 29.37%2023 3.7%2022 15.13%A 5.19%2022 18.66%2023 1.63%2022 0.18%2023+9.5%+20.5%2024 1 31 34 26 2023+9.5%+20.5%2023 2022 2023 7.35 58%2022 60%IPO 2023 IPO TOP5 56%4+8%2024+8%7%2%10%20%2024 3 1 1.3x 2024E P/B II PB 1.2 2 1.2023.5 1.1 9625 4%.5 1.2 9%25%.5 1.3 IPO 28%.5 1.4.7 2.2023 9.5%.7 2.1 2023+9.5%+20.5%.7 2.2.8 3.2024+8%.10 3.1.10 3.2 2024+8%.12 ZXDWxOsPnOmNoQmPsPoRnMbR8Q9PpNrRoMsOeRrRsOkPoOyR7NnNwPuOmQoOwMrMvN 3 1 2021-2023.5 2.5 3 2020.5 4%.5 5 2013-2023 IPO.6 6 2015-2023 IPO.6 7 2015-2023.6 8 2016-2023.7 9 IPO 2023 12 31.10 10.11 11.11 12.11 13.11 14 II PB 2024/3/1.14 4 1.7 2 2023.8 3 2023().9 4 2022 2023.10 5.11 6.12 7.12 8.13 9 2024 3 1.15 zO4H4l7b5x1eeXzcNueer8iCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfYHrHvhxEa+yjdJqtc/HhTD 5 1.2023 1.1 9625 4%2023 4%2023 9625 4%2015 4 2023 8 2023 116 2022 123 5%1 2021-2023 02000400060008000100001200014000160001 月 2 月 3 月 4 月 5 月 6 月 7 月 8 月 9 月 10 月 11 月 12 月2021 2022 2023 Wind 2 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 05000100001500020000250002015-5-82015-9-112016-1-152016-5-272016-9-302017-2-172017-6-232017-11-32018-3-162018-7-272018-12-72019-10-312021-4-302022-10-31 2019 2 22 2019 2 1.2 9%25%7%100%80%2023 1.58 9%2023 10 25%716 1.65 7%2023 270%2022 3 2020 050001000015000200002020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10 Wind 4%200.00220.00240.00260.00280.00300.00320.00 Wind 1.3 IPO 28%6 IPO 2023 8 IPO IPO 2023 26 2022 36 IPO 27%2023 313 IPO 3565-39%2023 11.4 2022 13.7 17%2023 IPO 6%2022 4.9%IPO 80%2017 10 IPO 19 IPO IPO 2023 2022 Wind 2023 315 279 88.6%5 2013-2023 IPO 0100200300400500600010002000300040005000600070002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Wind 6 2015-2023 IPO 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Wind 2023 2023 5790 20%150 76%1406 49%333 23%7 2015-2023 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Wind 2023 13.3 28%ABS-45%25%21%5%7 8 2016-2023-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0200004000060000800001000001200001400002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023()(%,)Wind 1.4 2022 2023 300 11.38%2022 21.63%2023 19.41%2022 29.37%2023 3.7%2022 15.13%A 5.19%2022 18.66%2023 1.63%2022 0.18%1 300 A 2021-5.20%12.02%4.80%2.28%9.17%2022-21.63%-29.37%-15.13%0.18%-18.66%2023-11.38%-19.41%-3.70%1.63%-5.19%Wind 2.2023 9.5%2.1 2023+9.5%+20.5%2023+9.5%+20.5%2024 1 31 34 26 2023+9.5%+20.5%2023 8 2 2023 2023E 2023E 2023Q4 600.5-8%196.9-8%-31%351.0 10%122.9 11%-16%366.1 3%116.9 2%0%269.0 7%88.4 11%12%197.3 3%84.7 5%16%323.4-4%83.2 7%30%254.4-2%65.0-15%19%42.050.0+51%+79%100.3-7%41.9 31%170.9-9%27.5-9%120.2 13%25.0-5%7%106.6 2%23.9 38%30%21.323.6+40%+55%+43%+95%185.6 10%19.9 21%33%105.8 10%19.3-26%63.8 19%18.7 8%-23%17.120.5+189%+247%65.0 13%16.8 40%18%66.7 12%14.8 8%13.914.8+55%+65%-46%-19%36.5 16%12.8 8%43%34.9 33%10.9 42%190%9.210.1-86%-85%9.111.1+112%+158%29.4-1%9.0 12%118%22.4-4%7.3-11%7.09.0+35%+74%6.5 182%12.8 41%6.4 72%5.96.5+95%+115%5.76.7+85%+115%-98%+15%28.9 11%5.4 35%255%14.9 7%3.2-11%3.1 711%639%2.83.3 14.3 25%2.7 88%16.6 13%2.2 135%1.9 82%1.82.7 1.72.2-63%-53%+14%6.2 7%0.9 62%7.1-13%0.6 11%2.1 245%0.1-100%4.3 21%-0.8 Wind/2.2 2023 7.35 9 58%2022 60%IPO 2023 IPO TOP5 56%4 3 2023()合计 首发 增发(主承销)增发(财务顾问)配股 可转债 债券承销 机构名称 金额 金额 市场份额 金额 市场份额 金额 市场份额 金额 市场份额 金额 市场份额 金额 市场份额 21176 500 14%994 26%481 45%101 76%206 14%19100 14%15802 394 11%523 14%34 3%99 7%14849 11%12643 322 9%491 13%2 1%30 2%11595 9%12928 170 5%333 9%145 13%6 4%260 18%12274 9%10979 317 9%132 3%114 8%10493 8%4460 44 1%7 0%0%2 0%4409 3%5524 466 13%143 4%17 1%4847 4%3934 69 2%27 1%0%0%31 2%3838 3%3508 74 2%91 2%45 4%0%40 3%3298 2%3620 0%0%4 0%3586 3%3842 82 2%44 1%0%6 4%0 0%3710 3%2657 87 2%73 2%121 9%2497 2%2566 92 3%87 2%0%12 1%2387 2%2812 20 1%0%79 6%2724 2%2609 28 1%0 0%2550 2%1782 59 2%9 0%2 1%35 2%1710 1%1616 50 1%28 1%1532 1%1228 11 0%25 1%0%1192 1%1262 71 2%0%17 1%1085 1%550 1 0%3 0%544 0%741 5 0%735 1%1502 32 1%13 1%1440 1%1336 9 0%1266 1%857 857 1%529 21 1%25 2%487 0%442 28 1%10 0%1 0%404 0%218 9 0%0 0%171 0%689 24 1%651 0%828 0 0%8 0%0 0%819 1%397 70 2%12 0%0%8 1%315 0%291 1 0%46 1%0%244 0%467 29 1%4 0%435 0%172 0%27 1%0 0%145 0%283 10 0%273 0%159 5 0%14 0%0 0%141 0%291 0%7 0%280 0%172 0%172 0%77 0 0%77 0%72 72 0%133 133 217 3 0%205 0%79 76 0%237 5 0%232 0%189 184 0%79 4 0%73 0%128 2 0%124 0%74 9 0%64 0%126158 3064 86%3193 84%704 66%116 88%1120 79%118288 88%TOP5 73528 2000 56%2485 65%704 66%116 88%800 56%68312 51%2022 top5 60%79%90%37%62%59%Wind 10 9 IPO 2023 12 31 Wind 4 2022 2023 2023 2022 IPO 通过率 并购重组通过率 配股通过率 IPO 通过率 并购重组通过率 配股通过率 中信证券 92%100%100%91%91%100%中信建投 81%100%93%100%0%华泰证券 94%100%100%96%100%100%广发证券 100%中金公司 80%100%100%92%100%100%招商证券 93%50%100%海通证券 92%97%国泰君安 93%82%100%光大证券 73%国信证券 100%85%Wind 3.2024+8%3.1 2019 50%50%11 5/2019 11 2020 7 2023 10 2023 11 10 JSDA 1000 11 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017TOP10 TOP11-25 SIFMA NYSE listed 12 2402452502552602652702752807000075000800008500090000950001000002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 JSDA 13 0200400600800100012000500100015002000250030003500400045002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 SIFMA 1 12,6 300ETF 300ETF 50ETF 300 2 2014-2021 13%12%20%2021 1.9 5 6%7 25 29 3 3 3 3.2 2024+8%+8%2024+8%7%2%10%20%13 8(2022 2023E 2024E 悲观 2024E 中性 2024E 乐观 10030 10000 10000 11000 12000-11%0%0%10%20%0.024%0.021%0.019%0.020%0.021%-3%-13%-10%-5%0%166 166 166 199 215-20%0%0%20%30%1331 1182 1085 1263 1435-14%-11%-8%7%21%16882 11600 9200 10600 11900 IPO 5869 3600 3200 3600 3900 11013 8000 6000 7000 8000 315 196 172 194 211 IPO 293 180 160 180 195 22 16 12 14 16 104498 128000 118000 128500 139000 3681 3000 3000 3500 4000 30905 40000 35000 40000 45000 69911 85000 80000 85000 90000 270 335 298 339 379 116 116 104 116 150 701 647 574 648 740 0%-8%-11%0%14%880 928 883 944 938-9%6%0%2%7%286 350 332 385 437-10%10%-5%10%25%738 1106 1106 1328 1438-50%50%0%20%30%15 100 100 100 100 3950 4313 4080 4668 5088 1423 1725 1632 1867 2035-36%21%-5%8%18%2024 3 1 1.3x 2024E P/B II PB 1.2 14 Table_PicPe 14 II PB 2024/3/1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2004-12-312005-04-292005-08-312005-12-302006-04-282006-08-312006-12-292007-04-302007-08-312007-12-282008-04-302008-08-292008-12-312009-04-302009-08-312009-12-312010-04-302010-08-312010-12-312011-04-292011-08-312011-12-302012-04-272012-08-312012-12-312013-04-262013-08-302013-12-312014-04-302014-08-292014-12-312015-04-302015-08-312015-12-312016-04-292016-08-312016-12-302017-04-282017-08-312017-12-292018-04-272018-08-312018-12-282019-04-302019-08-302019-12-312020-04-302020-08-312020-12-312021-04-302021-08-312021-12-312022-04-292022-08-312022-12-302023-04-282023-08-312023-12-29(+1)(-1)wind 15 9 2024 3 1 P/E P/B 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 21.32 3160 14.8 13.8 12.5 1.3 1.1 15.10 1345 11.7 10.7 9.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 14.82 1338 12.1 10.4 9.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 12.57 1374 17.7 15.7 13.2 1.6 1.3 1.3 4.56 1142 40.9 18.4 16.7 1.2 1.1 1.1 14.22 1084 13.7 12.6 10.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 35.00 1690 19.2 23.1 19.5 2.0 1.7 1.6 23.59 1830 24.4 20.4 16.5 2.7 2.4 2.2 14.06 1223 15.1 13.8 12.6 1.2 1.0 8.97 762 25.3 18.7 15.9 1.1 1.0 8.66 832 12.6 12.8 11.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 5.85 505 16.8 17.5 13.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 17.03 785 24.6 18.3 25.1 1.4 1.1 10.30 399 24.1 22.0 18.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 7.34 368 20.5 16.3 14.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 5.48 303 15.5 11.2 10.5 1.0 8.38 690 32.1 27.4 23.0 1.6 1.5 1.4 7.93 320 35.6 19.0 17.3 1.2 9.17 342 25.1 19.5 16.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 7.72 345 41.8 36.6 35.1 1.3 7.70 363 942.7 159.4 91.2 1.6 8.05 374 22.1 17.3 14.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 7.02 306 17.7 16.1 12.6 0.9 0.8 8.53 276 53.3 30.5 27.2 1.1 3.55 227 91.0 1.2 8.17 214 50.8 22.8 19.1 1.0 3.84 178 167.3 47.6 39.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 3.13 271-18.0 64.0 44.9 1.2 5.45 196 37.4 33.2 28.2 1.1 7.97 180 47.7 0.9 4.81 226 19.1 18.5 17.1 1.1 1.1 10.92 303 27.8 30.9 28.3 1.8 1.7 5.77 242 50.9 33.6 32.2 1.7 1.6 1.5 4.25 282 50.6 33.7 29.2 1.1 11.09 314 40.9 32.8 26.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 8.20 302 41.2 32.7 29.9 1.8 7.48 214-63.8 119.3 77.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 7.73 251 82.9 36.4 34.3 2.3 5.77 120-12.3 1.0 3.47 237-525.8 76.1 69.1 2.6 12.99 351 75.5 170.2 93.8 5.5 12.35 111-28.2-39.5-60.2 3.9 14.85 158 44.7 37.9 36.1 2.1 10.15 196-45.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.2 1.2 37.8 32.0 24.5 1.6 1.3 1.2 wind 16 Table_Analysts Table_Reports,1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%